--- title: "America And Israel Have Attacked Iran. Here's What You Need To Know" description: "In the early hours of Saturday morning, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran, marking what may be the most consequential military escalation in the Middle East in decades. President Donald Trump announced the operation — designated **Operation Epic Fury** by the U.S. Department of War — via a video posted to social media, declaring that American forces had begun \"major combat operations in Iran\" with the stated objective of eliminating what he described as imminent threats from the Iranian regime.\n\n\"To the great proud people of Iran,\" Trump said, \"when we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take; this will be probably your only chance for generations. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force.\" Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu followed within hours with his own statement, echoing Trump's framing and similarly calling on Iranians to overthrow their government.\n\nAs of 14:00 Central European Time on the day of the strikes, the picture remains fragmented — Iran has imposed a near-total internet shutdown, complicating real-time reporting — but what has emerged points to a meticulously planned, joint operation months in the making, with consequences that will ripple far beyond the borders of Iran.\n\n## Key Takeaways\n- The United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury, with the initial phase designed to last four days and targeting military assets, symbols of regime authority, and intelligence infrastructure.\n- Senior IRGC commanders, Iran's Ministers of Defense and Intelligence, and its lead nuclear negotiator were reported killed in the strikes, representing a potential decapitation strike of historic proportions.\n- Iran retaliated by launching at least 35 ballistic missiles at Israel and striking American military bases in Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, dramatically expanding the conflict's perimeter across the Gulf.\n- Russia and China offered Iran no meaningful support despite prior joint naval exercises, revealing the limits of the so-called Axis solidarity when American and Israeli aircraft began striking Tehran.\n- The Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil transit daily — looms over every calculation, with its disruption capable of triggering severe global economic consequences.\n\n## The Strikes: What We Know\n\nAccording to an Israeli security source speaking with Israel's Channel 12, the attack was deliberately timed to begin at approximately 8:00 AM local time in Tehran — a calculated decision intended to catch Iranian forces off guard. A nighttime strike had been the expected scenario; a daylight operation was not.\n\nThe same source confirmed three critical details about the operation's architecture: first, that the United States and Israel had been coordinating the strikes jointly for months; second, that Israel intended to deploy its full operational capacity, with Washington in full alignment; and third, that the initial phase of the joint campaign was designed to last four days.\n\nAmerican officials speaking with *The New York Times* corroborated the scale of the ambition, noting that the bombing campaign would likely be more extensive than **Operation Midnight Hammer** — the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites conducted during the 12-day war of 2025. That is a significant benchmark. Midnight Hammer was itself a substantial operation. What is unfolding now appears to dwarf it.\n\nA source speaking to *The Wall Street Journal* described the initial wave of strikes as targeting three categories: military assets designed to blunt Iran's retaliatory capacity; symbols of the regime's political authority; and intelligence infrastructure. The most notable confirmed targets include **Pasteur Street** in Tehran — a secured zone housing the office of the Iranian president, the center of IRGC intelligence leadership, and the Supreme National Security Council — as well as facilities tied to multiple other military institutions.\n\nBeyond Tehran, Iranian news agencies reported explosions in **Isfahan**, near the site of a nuclear complex previously struck during the 12-day war; **Kermanshah** in northwestern Iran, home to an IRGC base; and **Shiraz**, where Israeli intelligence has alleged Iran maintains a large underground missile production facility. Al Jazeera reported a renewed wave of explosions in Tehran at approximately 1:00 PM local time, confirming that this was not a single strike event but a sustained, multi-wave campaign.\n\n## Leadership Targeting and Casualties\n\nAmong the most significant dimensions of Operation Epic Fury is its apparent focus on decapitating Iranian leadership. Iranian state-affiliated media, including Tasnim and Mehr news agencies, reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian is safe. Reuters reported that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was transferred to a secure location prior to the strikes — though Iranian state media has not explicitly confirmed his safety, a notable omission.\n\nWhat has emerged from Israeli and Iranian-adjacent sources paints a grimmer picture for the regime's military and intelligence apparatus. An Iranian source close to the establishment told Reuters that several senior IRGC commanders and political officials were killed in the strikes. Israel's Channel 12, citing unnamed security sources, reported that the strikes \"achieved very high success\" in targeting key senior commanders and that Israel was satisfied with the initial results.\n\nAs of the time of reporting, Israeli sources indicate that the leader of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, its Ministers of Defense and Intelligence, and its lead nuclear negotiator are all among the dead. These are not peripheral figures. The IRGC commander and the intelligence and defense ministers constitute the core of Iran's military-strategic decision-making structure. If confirmed, their deaths would represent a decapitation strike of historic proportions.\n\n## Iran's Retaliation: Missiles, Drones, and Gulf-Wide Escalation\n\nTehran did not wait long to respond. Within hours of the initial strikes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the launch of what it described as the first large-scale wave of retaliatory missile and drone strikes targeting Israel. Air raid sirens blared across Israeli cities as the military worked to intercept incoming fire. Preliminary assessments indicated at least 35 ballistic missiles were launched at Israel throughout the day — some intercepted, others striking open areas. One person was reported lightly injured by falling debris.\n\nBut Iran's retaliation extended well beyond Israel. The IRGC confirmed strikes on American military installations across the Gulf, targeting **Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait**, **Al-Dhafra Air Base in the UAE**, **Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar**, and the **U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain**. Explosions were heard in Abu Dhabi, Kuwait City, Doha, and Riyadh.\n\nQatar's Defense Ministry said it successfully intercepted Iranian missiles. The UAE reported one civilian killed in Abu Dhabi following the interception of several inbound projectiles, and issued a sharp condemnation, calling the attack a \"flagrant violation of national sovereignty\" and reserving the right to respond. Both Bahrain and Qatar also condemned the strikes. Footage emerging from Gulf nations appeared to confirm successful hits in Bahrain and Abu Dhabi at minimum — though critically, those strikes did not appear to impact oil or energy infrastructure, suggesting either that Iran declined to target energy assets in this phase, or that interceptions were effective enough to prevent it.\n\nThe significance of Iran targeting Gulf states directly cannot be overstated. By doing so, Tehran has provided those governments with grounds to consider joining the U.S.-led offensive. Statements from multiple Gulf governments suggest that alignment may be moving in precisely that direction.\n\n## Proxy Networks and the Houthi Wildcard\n\nIsrael moved to neutralize Iran's proxy networks before and during the operation. On the 20th of this month, the IDF launched airstrikes into Lebanon, killing Hezbollah officials accused of planning operations against Israel. Hours before the Iran strikes, additional Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah's detection systems — an effort, according to analyst Ron Ben Yishai of the Israeli outlet Ynet, to blind the organization's early warning capabilities and prevent it from alerting Tehran to the IAF's departure. Afghan outlet Tolo News later reported additional Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon specifically aimed at preventing the group from intervening in the wider campaign.\n\nHamas, significantly weakened by Israel's post-October 7th campaign, is not expected to enter the conflict. But the **Houthis in Yemen** represent a different calculus entirely. Following the strikes on Iran, the Houthis announced the resumption of missile and drone attacks on sea lanes and on Israel. Two unnamed officials confirmed to the Associated Press that the first wave was expected as early as Saturday evening, Israel time — effectively reopening the Red Sea corridor as an active conflict zone. The Houthis had previously suspended those attacks under an agreement with the Trump administration.\n\nIn Iraq, Iran-linked militias were believed responsible for an initial round of rocket attacks, with more expected to follow. The proxy network, while degraded, remains operative across multiple theaters simultaneously.\n\n## The International Response: Studied Silence and Strategic Distance\n\nThe international reaction has been telling for what it reveals about the shifting architecture of global alliances. The British government moved quickly to announce it had not participated in the strikes and that it did not seek further regional escalation — a conspicuous effort to create distance from Washington. The posture likely reflects London's calculation that open alignment with an operation of this scale could jeopardize British interests in the Gulf or entangle the UK in a conflict with unpredictable endpoints. Germany stated it had been warned in advance and was monitoring developments. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for restraint, emphasizing the need to prevent \"any actions that could further escalate tensions.\"\n\nThe most strategically significant reactions, however, came from Tehran's nominal allies: Russia and China. Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, wrote on Telegram that the United States had \"shown its true colors\" and that diplomatic negotiations \"had never been genuine.\" Beyond that rhetorical broadside, Moscow offered Iran nothing concrete. China, as of the time of writing, had not issued any statement at all — not even a condemnation.\n\nThat silence is remarkable given the context. Less than two weeks prior, Russia, China, and Iran concluded joint naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz under the **Maritime Security Belt 2026** framework — a demonstration explicitly designed to signal trilateral solidarity and warn Washington that Iran was not isolated. The exercises were theater. When American and Israeli aircraft began striking Tehran, that partnership evaporated.\n\nChina's silence carries additional weight. Middle East Eye had revealed that Beijing was actively delivering offensive and defensive weapons to Iran, with three officials familiar with the matter confirming the transfers. Iran was reportedly close to finalizing a deal for Chinese-made **CM-302 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles** — a platform capable of traveling roughly 180 miles at low altitude specifically designed to defeat ship defenses and target aircraft carriers. Reuters confirmed the deal was near completion but that no delivery date had been set. Iran was also in talks for Chinese surface-to-air missile systems, man-portable air-defense systems, anti-ballistic weapons, and anti-satellite systems.\n\nNone of that prevented Beijing from staying silent when the bombs fell. China does not want a pro-Western government in Tehran, but it also will not sacrifice its relationships with Washington and the Gulf states by openly backing Iran during active hostilities. The arms deals and the naval exercises were instruments of leverage, not commitments to defend.\n\n## What Remains Unknown: Regime Survival, Hormuz, and the Endgame\n\nThe central unresolved question is whether Operation Epic Fury represents the opening phase of a full-scale regional war or another escalation cycle that eventually finds a ceiling. Nobody knows. What is clear is that Iran's decision to strike Gulf states directly has dramatically expanded the conflict's potential perimeter and given regional governments grounds to enter the fight.\n\nThe **Strait of Hormuz** looms over every calculation. Approximately 20 million barrels of oil transit the strait daily — roughly 27% of global maritime oil trade and one-fifth of total world daily oil consumption. If Iran makes good on longstanding threats to close or seriously disrupt the strait, the economic consequences would be severe and immediate. Energy price spikes would ripple through manufacturing in China, India, South Korea, and Japan. Those costs would cascade down global supply chains and land on consumers in the form of higher prices for fuel, food, and manufactured goods — a particularly acute political liability for a Trump administration already contending with domestic anger over the cost of living.\n\nThe status of diplomatic negotiations also remains unclear. On the Friday before the strikes, Oman's foreign minister appeared on American television to announce that a peace deal was within reach. That assessment is now under enormous strain. The United States has recent precedent for using negotiations as diplomatic cover for military action — Operation Midnight Hammer was preceded by similarly structured talks. If the strikes do not produce decisive results — either military defeat of Iran's capabilities or political collapse of the regime — then a negotiated settlement may ultimately be the only viable exit. But the path there, after strikes of this magnitude, will be complicated.\n\nThe question of **regime survival** is perhaps the most consequential unknown. The January 2026 protests were the largest popular uprising in Iran since the 1979 revolution. Tehran treated them as an existential threat, killing tens of thousands of its own citizens in an effort to restore order. Both Trump and Netanyahu have publicly called on Iranians to seize the opportunity to overthrow their government — a bet that the regime is too weakened to survive combined external military pressure and internal dissent.\n\nExpert opinion is divided. Narges Bajoghli of Johns Hopkins argues that the Islamic Republic has reasserted control following the January unrest and shows no signs of imminent collapse. Analysts at RAND take a more cautious view, acknowledging that while the regime retains the capacity to suppress dissent through violence, the depth of the protests exposed structural vulnerabilities that make long-term survival uncertain. The critical variables — whether senior IRGC officers or political elites will defect, whether security forces will fracture, whether the Iranian public will mobilize again in the face of a militarily weakened state — cannot be predicted from available evidence.\n\nHistory also counsels humility on Trump's core bet. External military intervention has frequently produced the opposite of its intended political effect, rallying populations around governments they despise in the face of foreign attack. And even if the regime does collapse, no articulated plan for what follows has been offered by Washington or Jerusalem. The precedents of Libya after Gaddafi and Iraq after Saddam — both of which descended into prolonged chaos that destabilized entire regions — should weigh heavily in any strategic calculus. Iran is larger, more complex, and more institutionally developed than either of those states. A power vacuum in Tehran could trigger sectarian conflict, mass refugee displacement, severe disruption to global energy markets, and opportunities for extremist actors that would dwarf previous post-collapse scenarios.\n\nThe strikes have happened. The retaliations have begun. What comes next remains genuinely open — and the answers will shape the Middle East, and the global economy, for years to come.\n\n## Frequently Asked Questions\n\n### What were the stated targets of Operation Epic Fury?\n\nAccording to a source speaking to the Wall Street Journal, the initial wave of strikes targeted three categories: military assets designed to blunt Iran's retaliatory capacity, symbols of the regime's political authority, and intelligence infrastructure. Confirmed targets included Pasteur Street in Tehran — housing the office of the Iranian president and the Supreme National Security Council — along with facilities in Isfahan near a nuclear complex, an IRGC base in Kermanshah, and an underground missile production facility in Shiraz.\n\n### Who was reportedly killed in the strikes on Iran?\n\nIsraeli sources indicated that the leader of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, its Ministers of Defense and Intelligence, and its lead nuclear negotiator were among the dead. If confirmed, these losses would constitute a decapitation strike of historic proportions, as the IRGC commander and the intelligence and defense ministers form the core of Iran's military-strategic decision-making structure.\n\n### How did Iran retaliate against the strikes?\n\nIran launched at least 35 ballistic missiles at Israel throughout the day, some of which were intercepted while others struck open areas. The IRGC also struck American military installations across the Gulf, targeting Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait, Al-Dhafra Air Base in the UAE, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and the US Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. The Houthis in Yemen also resumed missile and drone attacks on sea lanes and Israel following the strikes.\n\n### Why did Russia and China not come to Iran's defense?\n\nDespite joint naval exercises under the Maritime Security Belt 2026 framework just two weeks prior, both Russia and China offered Iran nothing concrete when the strikes began. China had not issued any statement at all as of the time of reporting, while Russia offered only rhetorical criticism. Analysts note that China will not sacrifice its relationships with Washington and Gulf states by openly backing Iran during active hostilities, and the naval exercises proved to be theater rather than a genuine commitment to defend.\n\n### What is the significance of the Strait of Hormuz in this conflict?\n\nApproximately 20 million barrels of oil transit the Strait of Hormuz daily, representing roughly 27 percent of global maritime oil trade and one-fifth of total world daily oil consumption. If Iran made good on longstanding threats to close or disrupt the strait, the resulting energy price spikes would ripple through manufacturing in China, India, South Korea, and Japan, cascading down global supply chains and raising prices for fuel, food, and manufactured goods worldwide." url: https://warfronts.pub/article/america-israel-attack-iran-operation-epic-fury.md canonical: https://warfronts.pub/article/america-israel-attack-iran-operation-epic-fury datePublished: 2026-02-28 dateModified: 2026-03-17 author: - name: Simon Whistler url: https://warfronts.pub/author/simon-whistler publisher: Warfronts image: "https://media.warfronts.pub/cdn-cgi/image/width=1600,height=900,fit=cover,quality=80,format=auto/articles/ZjYGekVFRzM/hero.jpg" type: NewsArticle contentHash: 811c004a45bf4576381523f0e7242582dd517691f79a689b957708efd620e6b4 tokens: 4822 summaryUrl: https://warfronts.pub/article/america-israel-attack-iran-operation-epic-fury.md.summary.md --- In the early hours of Saturday morning, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran, marking what may be the most consequential military escalation in the Middle East in decades. President Donald Trump announced the operation — designated **Operation Epic Fury** by the U.S. Department of War — via a video posted to social media, declaring that American forces had begun "major combat operations in Iran" with the stated objective of eliminating what he described as imminent threats from the Iranian regime. "To the great proud people of Iran," Trump said, "when we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take; this will be probably your only chance for generations. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu followed within hours with his own statement, echoing Trump's framing and similarly calling on Iranians to overthrow their government. As of 14:00 Central European Time on the day of the strikes, the picture remains fragmented — Iran has imposed a near-total internet shutdown, complicating real-time reporting — but what has emerged points to a meticulously planned, joint operation months in the making, with consequences that will ripple far beyond the borders of Iran. ## Key Takeaways - The United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury, with the initial phase designed to last four days and targeting military assets, symbols of regime authority, and intelligence infrastructure. - Senior IRGC commanders, Iran's Ministers of Defense and Intelligence, and its lead nuclear negotiator were reported killed in the strikes, representing a potential decapitation strike of historic proportions. - Iran retaliated by launching at least 35 ballistic missiles at Israel and striking American military bases in Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, dramatically expanding the conflict's perimeter across the Gulf. - Russia and China offered Iran no meaningful support despite prior joint naval exercises, revealing the limits of the so-called Axis solidarity when American and Israeli aircraft began striking Tehran. - The Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil transit daily — looms over every calculation, with its disruption capable of triggering severe global economic consequences. ## The Strikes: What We Know According to an Israeli security source speaking with Israel's Channel 12, the attack was deliberately timed to begin at approximately 8:00 AM local time in Tehran — a calculated decision intended to catch Iranian forces off guard. A nighttime strike had been the expected scenario; a daylight operation was not. The same source confirmed three critical details about the operation's architecture: first, that the United States and Israel had been coordinating the strikes jointly for months; second, that Israel intended to deploy its full operational capacity, with Washington in full alignment; and third, that the initial phase of the joint campaign was designed to last four days. American officials speaking with *The New York Times* corroborated the scale of the ambition, noting that the bombing campaign would likely be more extensive than **Operation Midnight Hammer** — the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites conducted during the 12-day war of 2025. That is a significant benchmark. Midnight Hammer was itself a substantial operation. What is unfolding now appears to dwarf it. A source speaking to *The Wall Street Journal* described the initial wave of strikes as targeting three categories: military assets designed to blunt Iran's retaliatory capacity; symbols of the regime's political authority; and intelligence infrastructure. The most notable confirmed targets include **Pasteur Street** in Tehran — a secured zone housing the office of the Iranian president, the center of IRGC intelligence leadership, and the Supreme National Security Council — as well as facilities tied to multiple other military institutions. Beyond Tehran, Iranian news agencies reported explosions in **Isfahan**, near the site of a nuclear complex previously struck during the 12-day war; **Kermanshah** in northwestern Iran, home to an IRGC base; and **Shiraz**, where Israeli intelligence has alleged Iran maintains a large underground missile production facility. Al Jazeera reported a renewed wave of explosions in Tehran at approximately 1:00 PM local time, confirming that this was not a single strike event but a sustained, multi-wave campaign. ## Leadership Targeting and Casualties Among the most significant dimensions of Operation Epic Fury is its apparent focus on decapitating Iranian leadership. Iranian state-affiliated media, including Tasnim and Mehr news agencies, reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian is safe. Reuters reported that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was transferred to a secure location prior to the strikes — though Iranian state media has not explicitly confirmed his safety, a notable omission. What has emerged from Israeli and Iranian-adjacent sources paints a grimmer picture for the regime's military and intelligence apparatus. An Iranian source close to the establishment told Reuters that several senior IRGC commanders and political officials were killed in the strikes. Israel's Channel 12, citing unnamed security sources, reported that the strikes "achieved very high success" in targeting key senior commanders and that Israel was satisfied with the initial results. As of the time of reporting, Israeli sources indicate that the leader of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, its Ministers of Defense and Intelligence, and its lead nuclear negotiator are all among the dead. These are not peripheral figures. The IRGC commander and the intelligence and defense ministers constitute the core of Iran's military-strategic decision-making structure. If confirmed, their deaths would represent a decapitation strike of historic proportions. ## Iran's Retaliation: Missiles, Drones, and Gulf-Wide Escalation Tehran did not wait long to respond. Within hours of the initial strikes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the launch of what it described as the first large-scale wave of retaliatory missile and drone strikes targeting Israel. Air raid sirens blared across Israeli cities as the military worked to intercept incoming fire. Preliminary assessments indicated at least 35 ballistic missiles were launched at Israel throughout the day — some intercepted, others striking open areas. One person was reported lightly injured by falling debris. But Iran's retaliation extended well beyond Israel. The IRGC confirmed strikes on American military installations across the Gulf, targeting **Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait**, **Al-Dhafra Air Base in the UAE**, **Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar**, and the **U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain**. Explosions were heard in Abu Dhabi, Kuwait City, Doha, and Riyadh. Qatar's Defense Ministry said it successfully intercepted Iranian missiles. The UAE reported one civilian killed in Abu Dhabi following the interception of several inbound projectiles, and issued a sharp condemnation, calling the attack a "flagrant violation of national sovereignty" and reserving the right to respond. Both Bahrain and Qatar also condemned the strikes. Footage emerging from Gulf nations appeared to confirm successful hits in Bahrain and Abu Dhabi at minimum — though critically, those strikes did not appear to impact oil or energy infrastructure, suggesting either that Iran declined to target energy assets in this phase, or that interceptions were effective enough to prevent it. The significance of Iran targeting Gulf states directly cannot be overstated. By doing so, Tehran has provided those governments with grounds to consider joining the U.S.-led offensive. Statements from multiple Gulf governments suggest that alignment may be moving in precisely that direction. ## Proxy Networks and the Houthi Wildcard Israel moved to neutralize Iran's proxy networks before and during the operation. On the 20th of this month, the IDF launched airstrikes into Lebanon, killing Hezbollah officials accused of planning operations against Israel. Hours before the Iran strikes, additional Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah's detection systems — an effort, according to analyst Ron Ben Yishai of the Israeli outlet Ynet, to blind the organization's early warning capabilities and prevent it from alerting Tehran to the IAF's departure. Afghan outlet Tolo News later reported additional Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon specifically aimed at preventing the group from intervening in the wider campaign. Hamas, significantly weakened by Israel's post-October 7th campaign, is not expected to enter the conflict. But the **Houthis in Yemen** represent a different calculus entirely. Following the strikes on Iran, the Houthis announced the resumption of missile and drone attacks on sea lanes and on Israel. Two unnamed officials confirmed to the Associated Press that the first wave was expected as early as Saturday evening, Israel time — effectively reopening the Red Sea corridor as an active conflict zone. The Houthis had previously suspended those attacks under an agreement with the Trump administration. In Iraq, Iran-linked militias were believed responsible for an initial round of rocket attacks, with more expected to follow. The proxy network, while degraded, remains operative across multiple theaters simultaneously. ## The International Response: Studied Silence and Strategic Distance The international reaction has been telling for what it reveals about the shifting architecture of global alliances. The British government moved quickly to announce it had not participated in the strikes and that it did not seek further regional escalation — a conspicuous effort to create distance from Washington. The posture likely reflects London's calculation that open alignment with an operation of this scale could jeopardize British interests in the Gulf or entangle the UK in a conflict with unpredictable endpoints. Germany stated it had been warned in advance and was monitoring developments. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for restraint, emphasizing the need to prevent "any actions that could further escalate tensions." The most strategically significant reactions, however, came from Tehran's nominal allies: Russia and China. Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, wrote on Telegram that the United States had "shown its true colors" and that diplomatic negotiations "had never been genuine." Beyond that rhetorical broadside, Moscow offered Iran nothing concrete. China, as of the time of writing, had not issued any statement at all — not even a condemnation. That silence is remarkable given the context. Less than two weeks prior, Russia, China, and Iran concluded joint naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz under the **Maritime Security Belt 2026** framework — a demonstration explicitly designed to signal trilateral solidarity and warn Washington that Iran was not isolated. The exercises were theater. When American and Israeli aircraft began striking Tehran, that partnership evaporated. China's silence carries additional weight. Middle East Eye had revealed that Beijing was actively delivering offensive and defensive weapons to Iran, with three officials familiar with the matter confirming the transfers. Iran was reportedly close to finalizing a deal for Chinese-made **CM-302 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles** — a platform capable of traveling roughly 180 miles at low altitude specifically designed to defeat ship defenses and target aircraft carriers. Reuters confirmed the deal was near completion but that no delivery date had been set. Iran was also in talks for Chinese surface-to-air missile systems, man-portable air-defense systems, anti-ballistic weapons, and anti-satellite systems. None of that prevented Beijing from staying silent when the bombs fell. China does not want a pro-Western government in Tehran, but it also will not sacrifice its relationships with Washington and the Gulf states by openly backing Iran during active hostilities. The arms deals and the naval exercises were instruments of leverage, not commitments to defend. ## What Remains Unknown: Regime Survival, Hormuz, and the Endgame The central unresolved question is whether Operation Epic Fury represents the opening phase of a full-scale regional war or another escalation cycle that eventually finds a ceiling. Nobody knows. What is clear is that Iran's decision to strike Gulf states directly has dramatically expanded the conflict's potential perimeter and given regional governments grounds to enter the fight. The **Strait of Hormuz** looms over every calculation. Approximately 20 million barrels of oil transit the strait daily — roughly 27% of global maritime oil trade and one-fifth of total world daily oil consumption. If Iran makes good on longstanding threats to close or seriously disrupt the strait, the economic consequences would be severe and immediate. Energy price spikes would ripple through manufacturing in China, India, South Korea, and Japan. Those costs would cascade down global supply chains and land on consumers in the form of higher prices for fuel, food, and manufactured goods — a particularly acute political liability for a Trump administration already contending with domestic anger over the cost of living. The status of diplomatic negotiations also remains unclear. On the Friday before the strikes, Oman's foreign minister appeared on American television to announce that a peace deal was within reach. That assessment is now under enormous strain. The United States has recent precedent for using negotiations as diplomatic cover for military action — Operation Midnight Hammer was preceded by similarly structured talks. If the strikes do not produce decisive results — either military defeat of Iran's capabilities or political collapse of the regime — then a negotiated settlement may ultimately be the only viable exit. But the path there, after strikes of this magnitude, will be complicated. The question of **regime survival** is perhaps the most consequential unknown. The January 2026 protests were the largest popular uprising in Iran since the 1979 revolution. Tehran treated them as an existential threat, killing tens of thousands of its own citizens in an effort to restore order. Both Trump and Netanyahu have publicly called on Iranians to seize the opportunity to overthrow their government — a bet that the regime is too weakened to survive combined external military pressure and internal dissent. Expert opinion is divided. Narges Bajoghli of Johns Hopkins argues that the Islamic Republic has reasserted control following the January unrest and shows no signs of imminent collapse. Analysts at RAND take a more cautious view, acknowledging that while the regime retains the capacity to suppress dissent through violence, the depth of the protests exposed structural vulnerabilities that make long-term survival uncertain. The critical variables — whether senior IRGC officers or political elites will defect, whether security forces will fracture, whether the Iranian public will mobilize again in the face of a militarily weakened state — cannot be predicted from available evidence. History also counsels humility on Trump's core bet. External military intervention has frequently produced the opposite of its intended political effect, rallying populations around governments they despise in the face of foreign attack. And even if the regime does collapse, no articulated plan for what follows has been offered by Washington or Jerusalem. The precedents of Libya after Gaddafi and Iraq after Saddam — both of which descended into prolonged chaos that destabilized entire regions — should weigh heavily in any strategic calculus. Iran is larger, more complex, and more institutionally developed than either of those states. A power vacuum in Tehran could trigger sectarian conflict, mass refugee displacement, severe disruption to global energy markets, and opportunities for extremist actors that would dwarf previous post-collapse scenarios. The strikes have happened. The retaliations have begun. What comes next remains genuinely open — and the answers will shape the Middle East, and the global economy, for years to come. ## Frequently Asked Questions ### What were the stated targets of Operation Epic Fury? According to a source speaking to the Wall Street Journal, the initial wave of strikes targeted three categories: military assets designed to blunt Iran's retaliatory capacity, symbols of the regime's political authority, and intelligence infrastructure. Confirmed targets included Pasteur Street in Tehran — housing the office of the Iranian president and the Supreme National Security Council — along with facilities in Isfahan near a nuclear complex, an IRGC base in Kermanshah, and an underground missile production facility in Shiraz. ### Who was reportedly killed in the strikes on Iran? Israeli sources indicated that the leader of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, its Ministers of Defense and Intelligence, and its lead nuclear negotiator were among the dead. If confirmed, these losses would constitute a decapitation strike of historic proportions, as the IRGC commander and the intelligence and defense ministers form the core of Iran's military-strategic decision-making structure. ### How did Iran retaliate against the strikes? Iran launched at least 35 ballistic missiles at Israel throughout the day, some of which were intercepted while others struck open areas. The IRGC also struck American military installations across the Gulf, targeting Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait, Al-Dhafra Air Base in the UAE, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and the US Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. The Houthis in Yemen also resumed missile and drone attacks on sea lanes and Israel following the strikes. ### Why did Russia and China not come to Iran's defense? Despite joint naval exercises under the Maritime Security Belt 2026 framework just two weeks prior, both Russia and China offered Iran nothing concrete when the strikes began. China had not issued any statement at all as of the time of reporting, while Russia offered only rhetorical criticism. Analysts note that China will not sacrifice its relationships with Washington and Gulf states by openly backing Iran during active hostilities, and the naval exercises proved to be theater rather than a genuine commitment to defend. ### What is the significance of the Strait of Hormuz in this conflict? Approximately 20 million barrels of oil transit the Strait of Hormuz daily, representing roughly 27 percent of global maritime oil trade and one-fifth of total world daily oil consumption. If Iran made good on longstanding threats to close or disrupt the strait, the resulting energy price spikes would ripple through manufacturing in China, India, South Korea, and Japan, cascading down global supply chains and raising prices for fuel, food, and manufactured goods worldwide.