--- title: "Israel and Hamas Ceasefire Explained: Key Terms, Sticking Points, and What Comes Next" description: "After more than two years of nearly continuous fighting, Israel and Hamas have formally agreed to a ceasefire. Signed at a conference in Egypt, the deal commits both sides to a phased drawdown of hostilities, a mutual prisoner exchange, the release of all remaining living Israeli hostages, and a massive surge of humanitarian aid into the devastated Gaza Strip. While the agreement represents the most significant diplomatic breakthrough in the conflict to date, it is only the first phase of what negotiators hope will become a comprehensive peace process — and formidable obstacles remain on both sides that could derail progress at any moment.\n\n## Key Takeaways\n- Israel and Hamas signed a phase-one ceasefire deal in Egypt after weeks of negotiations, with high-level American involvement proving instrumental in the final push.\n- Hamas will release all twenty remaining living Israeli hostages within a seventy-two-hour window, while Israel is expected to release approximately two thousand Palestinian prisoners, including over 1,700 detained in Gaza and 250 serving life sentences.\n- Israeli forces will withdraw from portions of the Gaza Strip, retaining control of roughly fifty-three to fifty-eight percent of the territory — down from over eighty percent at the time of the agreement — while maintaining its presence in most of Rafah, a majority of Khan Younis, and all border access points.\n- At least four hundred aid trucks will surge into Gaza almost immediately, with a sustained flow of approximately six hundred trucks per day thereafter, enough to match pre-war needs and replenish critical supplies including fuel, medicine, and hospital equipment.\n- The ceasefire is only the first phase of a multi-stage process, with future negotiations expected to address Hamas disarmament, the political future of Gaza, and broader regional peace — all of which remain deeply contentious.\n\n## How the Deal Came Together\n\nNegotiations leading to the ceasefire had been underway for weeks, but it was only in the final days that a genuine breakthrough appeared within reach. High-level American officials descended on the scene of negotiations, while Middle Eastern leaders applied behind-the-scenes pressure on Hamas leadership. By late Wednesday evening, it became clear that an announcement was imminent. Within hours, both the Israeli government and Hamas leadership confirmed acceptance of a set of terms, and the agreement was formalized the following day when representatives of each side signed the deal in Egypt.\n\nAccording to reports from outlets around the world — the full text of the agreement had not yet been released to the global public at the time of reporting — the first phase of the ceasefire revolves around three key provisions: a mutual prisoner exchange, a phased Israeli withdrawal from parts of Gaza, and a massive influx of humanitarian aid into the territory.\n\n## The Prisoner Exchange: Hostages, Detainees, and Points of Contention\n\nUnder the terms of the deal, Hamas has committed to releasing all twenty of its remaining living Israeli hostages in a single transfer, without the inflammatory ceremonies that accompanied prior releases. In return, Israel is expected to release around two thousand Palestinian prisoners, including over 1,700 who were detained in the Gaza Strip and 250 Palestinians currently serving life sentences in Israeli custody.\n\nThe remains of deceased Israeli hostages will be returned as they become available, though Hamas has stated that some remains still need to be collected. Twenty-eight bodies of hostages are still thought to be located in Gaza, and the process of recovering and returning them could take weeks or even months. Complicating matters, some of the Hamas members responsible for tracking the locations of hostage remains have themselves been killed during the conflict.\n\nHamas has submitted a list of the prisoners it wishes to see released. Israel will publish the list, and victims of attacks perpetrated by those prisoners will have twenty-four hours to register objections. Several names expected on Hamas' list are already anticipated to be flashpoints — most notably Marwan al-Barghouti, whom Palestinians consistently identify as their preferred head of state in a hypothetical sovereign nation, and former militant leader Ahmed Saadat. Israel has already stated that it will not allow Barghouti's release, setting the stage for a potentially significant dispute.\n\n## Israeli Withdrawal and Territorial Control in Gaza\n\nAs part of the agreement, Israeli forces have committed to a phased withdrawal from parts of the Gaza Strip, though they will remain present in significant areas. According to Washington, Israel will withdraw to about fifty-eight percent of Gaza's territory in total, down from the more than eighty percent it controlled on the day the ceasefire was agreed. However, an Israeli spokesperson suggested on Thursday that Israel may occupy closer to fifty-three percent of Gaza, with the reason for the discrepancy unclear.\n\nUnder Washington's specifications, Israel will maintain its presence in most of Rafah and a majority of Khan Younis, as well as several other areas that were once densely populated Gazan neighborhoods. Israel will retain control of all border access points. Although it is not explicitly covered in the ceasefire text, it is considered unlikely that Gazan civilians will be immediately able to return to the areas they previously called home.\n\n## Humanitarian Aid: A Lifeline for Gaza's Population\n\nThe ceasefire deal commits Israel to allowing at least four hundred aid trucks to surge into Gaza almost immediately, followed by a sustained flow of approximately six hundred aid trucks per day. That volume is enough to match the pre-war needs of Gaza's population and begin replenishing critical supplies including fuel, medicine, and hospital equipment.\n\nThe United Nations is prepared to begin the aid surge immediately, according to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. The UN's emergency aid chief estimates that 170,000 tons of aid are already staged and ready to flow into the territory. The need is acute: according to a Wednesday study published in the Lancet, almost fifty-five thousand children under the age of six are thought to be acutely malnourished across Gaza.\n\n## Implementation Challenges: Stopping the Fighting\n\nAlthough both sides formally agreed to the ceasefire, actually stopping the fighting proved to be an immediate challenge. While Israeli forces ended hostilities in most areas, intermittent explosions rang out across Gaza throughout Thursday, including in multiple zones in the central and southern regions. Israeli sources stated that those strikes only targeted threats posing an imminent danger to Israeli troops as they repositioned.\n\nThe daily death toll reported by authorities in Gaza was unusually low on Thursday but not zero: eleven bodies were brought to hospitals in the prior twenty-four hours, and forty-nine other people were counted as wounded. The Israel Defense Forces confirmed on Thursday that they are preparing to transition toward strictly defensive lines as the ceasefire takes effect.\n\nThe release of living hostages is expected to take place within a seventy-two-hour window beginning when Israel signed the deal, closing on Monday. The hostages will be brought to three hospitals near Tel Aviv for evaluation, nourishment, and reunification with their families.\n\n## The Trump Administration's Twenty-Point Peace Plan\n\nOnce the early phases of implementation are complete, Israel, Hamas, and their international mediators are expected to turn their attention toward future stages of the ceasefire, likely engaging around the terms of a twenty-point peace plan laid out by the Trump administration in late September.\n\nThe plan calls for Israel to grant amnesty to Hamas members, with those ex-militants — and the rest of Gaza's population — offered safe passage abroad if they wish to leave the territory. In exchange, Hamas would disarm voluntarily and would not be allowed to participate in the future administration of the Gaza Strip, either directly or indirectly. A Gazan reconstruction effort would begin, and the territory's residents would not be forced to leave against their will — contradicting prior plans for which Trump had previously voiced support. Israel would be barred from occupying or annexing Gaza, while the territory would be temporarily administered by a \"technocratic and apolitical Palestinian committee,\" managed by an international board of overseers led by Trump himself.\n\nWhether this plan is held constant, modified, renegotiated, or abandoned in favor of another framework entirely will be determined as negotiations continue. The ambition embedded in these objectives is considerable, and some points will be extremely difficult to achieve even under the best of circumstances.\n\n## Sticking Points on the Hamas Side\n\nFor Hamas, releasing the hostages represents a calculated but enormous risk. The prospect that Israel could eventually secure the hostages' release — or that the hostages could be killed by Hamas or by Israeli fire — has given Hamas most of the leverage it has wielded against Jerusalem throughout the conflict. With the hostages returned, Hamas is betting that Israel will no longer have sufficient pretext to continue the war, and the organization has implored Washington to ensure that Israel is held to its commitments.\n\nBut if the Netanyahu government chooses to continue the war regardless, pursuing the total destruction of Hamas that Netanyahu has treated as a critical wartime objective, Hamas will find itself in a far weaker negotiating position. Hamas has not yet agreed to disarm — a condition Israel considers mandatory for lasting peace — and it has certainly not endorsed the portion of Trump's plan that excludes Hamas from any role in a post-war Gaza. On Thursday, a senior Hamas official told Qatari media that the group would reject the idea of an international \"Board of Peace\" to oversee reconstruction.\n\nAdditional uncertainties abound. How long will Israel be willing to wait for the return of deceased hostages' remains before concluding that Hamas is stalling and reopening the conflict? What if Israel refuses to release the specific prisoners Hamas is demanding? Can Hamas control the most radical fighters within its ranks, or its armed affiliates like Palestinian Islamic Jihad? Each of these questions represents a potential fault line that could fracture the ceasefire.\n\n## Sticking Points on the Israeli Side: Netanyahu's Political Calculus\n\nOn the Israeli side, the political fate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to be an outsized factor in whatever comes next. Israel is expected to hold elections no later than October 2026, though those elections could come sooner if Netanyahu's governing coalition collapses. The combination of war-weariness, disillusionment with Netanyahu's leadership, and other domestic factors may be sufficient to see him lose power.\n\nBy the estimation of many experts inside and outside Israel, Netanyahu's desire to maintain his hold on power and avoid the specter of a corruption trial has been a significant factor in why the war in Gaza lasted as long as it did. His coalition exists at the pleasure of far-right leaders who could abandon him if Israel commits to a peace they oppose.\n\nThis dynamic creates competing incentives. On one hand, Netanyahu could be incentivized to return to war with Hamas once Israel's hostages are home, extending his mandate and attempting to garner popular support. On the other hand, he could pivot Israel's attention toward Iran and other proxy militant groups — a pattern observed during prior ceasefire periods in Gaza. After their twelve-day conflict earlier in the year, Israel and Iran both appeared to be preparing for a return to hostilities. An enduring peace in Gaza may paradoxically make a wider war with Iran more likely, not less, if Netanyahu views a war effort as his best path to remaining premier.\n\nAccording to insider reports, Netanyahu was under heavy pressure to accept the ceasefire deal, especially from the United States, suggesting that if he had been free to act on his own political calculus, the ceasefire might not have materialized.\n\n## Israel's Far-Right Coalition and the Threat to the Peace Process\n\nBeyond Netanyahu's personal political calculations, the Israeli public and its political establishment present additional obstacles to the peace framework proposed by the Trump administration. The stipulations for Hamas fighters to be granted amnesty and for Israel to refrain from occupying or annexing the Gaza Strip are particularly contentious.\n\nAnnexation is a deeply politically sensitive issue in Israel, with significant opposition, but the current political moment is one in which small, pro-annexation parties maintain a controlling influence over domestic policy. Israel's far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, a critical political ally of Netanyahu, expressed in the wake of the ceasefire that he and his Religious Zionism party would fiercely oppose an end to the war. On social media, Smotrich stated that he hopes \"immediately after the hostages return home, the state of Israel will continue to strive with all its might for the true eradication of Hamas and the genuine disarmament of Gaza, so that it no longer poses a threat to Israel.\"\n\nAnother far-right leader, Minister for National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, expressed agreement while issuing a direct threat to Netanyahu: \"We are happy about the release of all the hostages, but we will vote against the release of murderers. The Prime Minister committed to me that Hamas will be dismantled. If it doesn't happen? We will dismantle the government.\"\n\nEven for relative moderates in Israel, the prospect of Hamas fighters being granted amnesty and safe passage to any destination worldwide is deeply troubling. The global Jewish population faces the ongoing threat of anti-Semitic attacks around the world, and there are concerns that ex-Hamas militants could align with other forms of radical ideology abroad or take up arms alongside other Iran-backed proxy groups.\n\n## A Fragile Moment of Hope\n\nDespite the formidable array of obstacles that lie ahead, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas represents a genuine cause for optimism — the first in many months. The fighting in Gaza, for now, is over. Hostages are expected to come home. Humanitarian aid is poised to flow into a territory where it is desperately needed. And for the first time since the conflict began, there is a diplomatic framework — however imperfect and contested — around which future negotiations can be organized.\n\nBut peace, if it is truly on the horizon, will not happen by accident. It will require both Israel and Hamas to hold to the ceasefire, work through the massive enduring issues that remain, and resist the domestic and strategic pressures that could pull them back toward conflict. This ceasefire is not the end of the story. What Israel and Hamas do with it — and what the international community does to support it — will determine whether the people of Israel and the people of Gaza can finally return to a life without war.\n\n## Related Coverage\n- [The UAE is Destabilizing the Entire Middle East](https://warfronts.pub/conflicts/the-uae-is-destabilizing-the-entire-middle-east)\n- [How the UAE's Regional Meddling Triggered a Historic Realignment Across the Middle East](https://warfronts.pub/geopolitics/uae-destabilizing-middle-east-regional-realignment-2026)\n- [The UAE's Regional Ambitions Collapse as Middle East Powers Push Back](https://warfronts.pub/geopolitics/uae-regional-ambitions-collapse-middle-east-pushback)\n\n## Frequently Asked Questions\n\n### What are the three main provisions of the phase-one ceasefire?\n\nThe first phase of the ceasefire revolves around a mutual prisoner exchange, a phased Israeli withdrawal from parts of Gaza, and a massive influx of humanitarian aid into the territory. Hamas commits to releasing all twenty remaining living Israeli hostages, Israel releases approximately two thousand Palestinian prisoners, Israeli forces withdraw from a significant portion of Gaza they controlled, and at least four hundred aid trucks surge in almost immediately.\n\n### How many Palestinian prisoners will Israel release and what are the points of contention?\n\nIsrael is expected to release approximately two thousand Palestinian prisoners, including over 1,700 detained in Gaza and 250 currently serving life sentences. Hamas submitted a list of prisoners it wishes to see released, and victims of those prisoners' attacks have twenty-four hours to register objections. Particularly contentious figures include Marwan al-Barghouti, whom Palestinians widely favor as a future head of state, and former militant leader Ahmed Saadat — Israel has already stated it will not release Barghouti.\n\n### How much of Gaza will Israel control after withdrawing under the ceasefire terms?\n\nAccording to Washington, Israel will withdraw to about fifty-eight percent of Gaza's territory, down from the more than eighty percent it controlled when the ceasefire was agreed, though an Israeli spokesperson suggested the figure may be closer to fifty-three percent. Israel will maintain its presence in most of Rafah and a majority of Khan Younis, and will retain control of all border access points.\n\n### What political pressures inside Israel threaten the ceasefire?\n\nFar-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich stated his party would fiercely oppose an end to the war, and national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir threatened to collapse the government if Hamas is not dismantled. Beyond coalition politics, Netanyahu faces elections no later than October 2026, and some analysts believe his incentive to retain power could drive him to resume the war once the hostages are home.\n\n### What is the Trump administration's twenty-point peace plan and why is it contentious?\n\nThe plan calls for Israel to grant amnesty to Hamas members and allow them safe passage abroad, Hamas to disarm voluntarily and be barred from governing Gaza, and the territory to be temporarily run by a technocratic Palestinian committee overseen by an international board led by Trump. Hamas has already rejected the idea of an international board, Israel's far-right parties oppose amnesty for Hamas fighters, and the prohibition on annexation conflicts with the goals of influential coalition members.\n\n## Sources\n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n- \n\n" url: https://warfronts.pub/article/israel-hamas-ceasefire-deal-explained-key-terms-sticking-points.md canonical: https://warfronts.pub/article/israel-hamas-ceasefire-deal-explained-key-terms-sticking-points datePublished: 2026-02-17 dateModified: 2026-02-17 author: - name: Simon Whistler url: https://warfronts.pub/author/simon-whistler publisher: Warfronts image: "https://media.warfronts.pub/cdn-cgi/image/width=1600,height=900,fit=cover,quality=80,format=auto/articles/zr8-PIyEcSo/hero.jpg" type: NewsArticle contentHash: d1beaa507664d565391158b98fa626de3e929d42c0a63168fae6609dcd939ef1 tokens: 5497 summaryUrl: https://warfronts.pub/article/israel-hamas-ceasefire-deal-explained-key-terms-sticking-points.md.summary.md --- After more than two years of nearly continuous fighting, Israel and Hamas have formally agreed to a ceasefire. Signed at a conference in Egypt, the deal commits both sides to a phased drawdown of hostilities, a mutual prisoner exchange, the release of all remaining living Israeli hostages, and a massive surge of humanitarian aid into the devastated Gaza Strip. While the agreement represents the most significant diplomatic breakthrough in the conflict to date, it is only the first phase of what negotiators hope will become a comprehensive peace process — and formidable obstacles remain on both sides that could derail progress at any moment. ## Key Takeaways - Israel and Hamas signed a phase-one ceasefire deal in Egypt after weeks of negotiations, with high-level American involvement proving instrumental in the final push. - Hamas will release all twenty remaining living Israeli hostages within a seventy-two-hour window, while Israel is expected to release approximately two thousand Palestinian prisoners, including over 1,700 detained in Gaza and 250 serving life sentences. - Israeli forces will withdraw from portions of the Gaza Strip, retaining control of roughly fifty-three to fifty-eight percent of the territory — down from over eighty percent at the time of the agreement — while maintaining its presence in most of Rafah, a majority of Khan Younis, and all border access points. - At least four hundred aid trucks will surge into Gaza almost immediately, with a sustained flow of approximately six hundred trucks per day thereafter, enough to match pre-war needs and replenish critical supplies including fuel, medicine, and hospital equipment. - The ceasefire is only the first phase of a multi-stage process, with future negotiations expected to address Hamas disarmament, the political future of Gaza, and broader regional peace — all of which remain deeply contentious. ## How the Deal Came Together Negotiations leading to the ceasefire had been underway for weeks, but it was only in the final days that a genuine breakthrough appeared within reach. High-level American officials descended on the scene of negotiations, while Middle Eastern leaders applied behind-the-scenes pressure on Hamas leadership. By late Wednesday evening, it became clear that an announcement was imminent. Within hours, both the Israeli government and Hamas leadership confirmed acceptance of a set of terms, and the agreement was formalized the following day when representatives of each side signed the deal in Egypt. According to reports from outlets around the world — the full text of the agreement had not yet been released to the global public at the time of reporting — the first phase of the ceasefire revolves around three key provisions: a mutual prisoner exchange, a phased Israeli withdrawal from parts of Gaza, and a massive influx of humanitarian aid into the territory. ## The Prisoner Exchange: Hostages, Detainees, and Points of Contention Under the terms of the deal, Hamas has committed to releasing all twenty of its remaining living Israeli hostages in a single transfer, without the inflammatory ceremonies that accompanied prior releases. In return, Israel is expected to release around two thousand Palestinian prisoners, including over 1,700 who were detained in the Gaza Strip and 250 Palestinians currently serving life sentences in Israeli custody. The remains of deceased Israeli hostages will be returned as they become available, though Hamas has stated that some remains still need to be collected. Twenty-eight bodies of hostages are still thought to be located in Gaza, and the process of recovering and returning them could take weeks or even months. Complicating matters, some of the Hamas members responsible for tracking the locations of hostage remains have themselves been killed during the conflict. Hamas has submitted a list of the prisoners it wishes to see released. Israel will publish the list, and victims of attacks perpetrated by those prisoners will have twenty-four hours to register objections. Several names expected on Hamas' list are already anticipated to be flashpoints — most notably Marwan al-Barghouti, whom Palestinians consistently identify as their preferred head of state in a hypothetical sovereign nation, and former militant leader Ahmed Saadat. Israel has already stated that it will not allow Barghouti's release, setting the stage for a potentially significant dispute. ## Israeli Withdrawal and Territorial Control in Gaza As part of the agreement, Israeli forces have committed to a phased withdrawal from parts of the Gaza Strip, though they will remain present in significant areas. According to Washington, Israel will withdraw to about fifty-eight percent of Gaza's territory in total, down from the more than eighty percent it controlled on the day the ceasefire was agreed. However, an Israeli spokesperson suggested on Thursday that Israel may occupy closer to fifty-three percent of Gaza, with the reason for the discrepancy unclear. Under Washington's specifications, Israel will maintain its presence in most of Rafah and a majority of Khan Younis, as well as several other areas that were once densely populated Gazan neighborhoods. Israel will retain control of all border access points. Although it is not explicitly covered in the ceasefire text, it is considered unlikely that Gazan civilians will be immediately able to return to the areas they previously called home. ## Humanitarian Aid: A Lifeline for Gaza's Population The ceasefire deal commits Israel to allowing at least four hundred aid trucks to surge into Gaza almost immediately, followed by a sustained flow of approximately six hundred aid trucks per day. That volume is enough to match the pre-war needs of Gaza's population and begin replenishing critical supplies including fuel, medicine, and hospital equipment. The United Nations is prepared to begin the aid surge immediately, according to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. The UN's emergency aid chief estimates that 170,000 tons of aid are already staged and ready to flow into the territory. The need is acute: according to a Wednesday study published in the Lancet, almost fifty-five thousand children under the age of six are thought to be acutely malnourished across Gaza. ## Implementation Challenges: Stopping the Fighting Although both sides formally agreed to the ceasefire, actually stopping the fighting proved to be an immediate challenge. While Israeli forces ended hostilities in most areas, intermittent explosions rang out across Gaza throughout Thursday, including in multiple zones in the central and southern regions. Israeli sources stated that those strikes only targeted threats posing an imminent danger to Israeli troops as they repositioned. The daily death toll reported by authorities in Gaza was unusually low on Thursday but not zero: eleven bodies were brought to hospitals in the prior twenty-four hours, and forty-nine other people were counted as wounded. The Israel Defense Forces confirmed on Thursday that they are preparing to transition toward strictly defensive lines as the ceasefire takes effect. The release of living hostages is expected to take place within a seventy-two-hour window beginning when Israel signed the deal, closing on Monday. The hostages will be brought to three hospitals near Tel Aviv for evaluation, nourishment, and reunification with their families. ## The Trump Administration's Twenty-Point Peace Plan Once the early phases of implementation are complete, Israel, Hamas, and their international mediators are expected to turn their attention toward future stages of the ceasefire, likely engaging around the terms of a twenty-point peace plan laid out by the Trump administration in late September. The plan calls for Israel to grant amnesty to Hamas members, with those ex-militants — and the rest of Gaza's population — offered safe passage abroad if they wish to leave the territory. In exchange, Hamas would disarm voluntarily and would not be allowed to participate in the future administration of the Gaza Strip, either directly or indirectly. A Gazan reconstruction effort would begin, and the territory's residents would not be forced to leave against their will — contradicting prior plans for which Trump had previously voiced support. Israel would be barred from occupying or annexing Gaza, while the territory would be temporarily administered by a "technocratic and apolitical Palestinian committee," managed by an international board of overseers led by Trump himself. Whether this plan is held constant, modified, renegotiated, or abandoned in favor of another framework entirely will be determined as negotiations continue. The ambition embedded in these objectives is considerable, and some points will be extremely difficult to achieve even under the best of circumstances. ## Sticking Points on the Hamas Side For Hamas, releasing the hostages represents a calculated but enormous risk. The prospect that Israel could eventually secure the hostages' release — or that the hostages could be killed by Hamas or by Israeli fire — has given Hamas most of the leverage it has wielded against Jerusalem throughout the conflict. With the hostages returned, Hamas is betting that Israel will no longer have sufficient pretext to continue the war, and the organization has implored Washington to ensure that Israel is held to its commitments. But if the Netanyahu government chooses to continue the war regardless, pursuing the total destruction of Hamas that Netanyahu has treated as a critical wartime objective, Hamas will find itself in a far weaker negotiating position. Hamas has not yet agreed to disarm — a condition Israel considers mandatory for lasting peace — and it has certainly not endorsed the portion of Trump's plan that excludes Hamas from any role in a post-war Gaza. On Thursday, a senior Hamas official told Qatari media that the group would reject the idea of an international "Board of Peace" to oversee reconstruction. Additional uncertainties abound. How long will Israel be willing to wait for the return of deceased hostages' remains before concluding that Hamas is stalling and reopening the conflict? What if Israel refuses to release the specific prisoners Hamas is demanding? Can Hamas control the most radical fighters within its ranks, or its armed affiliates like Palestinian Islamic Jihad? Each of these questions represents a potential fault line that could fracture the ceasefire. ## Sticking Points on the Israeli Side: Netanyahu's Political Calculus On the Israeli side, the political fate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to be an outsized factor in whatever comes next. Israel is expected to hold elections no later than October 2026, though those elections could come sooner if Netanyahu's governing coalition collapses. The combination of war-weariness, disillusionment with Netanyahu's leadership, and other domestic factors may be sufficient to see him lose power. By the estimation of many experts inside and outside Israel, Netanyahu's desire to maintain his hold on power and avoid the specter of a corruption trial has been a significant factor in why the war in Gaza lasted as long as it did. His coalition exists at the pleasure of far-right leaders who could abandon him if Israel commits to a peace they oppose. This dynamic creates competing incentives. On one hand, Netanyahu could be incentivized to return to war with Hamas once Israel's hostages are home, extending his mandate and attempting to garner popular support. On the other hand, he could pivot Israel's attention toward Iran and other proxy militant groups — a pattern observed during prior ceasefire periods in Gaza. After their twelve-day conflict earlier in the year, Israel and Iran both appeared to be preparing for a return to hostilities. An enduring peace in Gaza may paradoxically make a wider war with Iran more likely, not less, if Netanyahu views a war effort as his best path to remaining premier. According to insider reports, Netanyahu was under heavy pressure to accept the ceasefire deal, especially from the United States, suggesting that if he had been free to act on his own political calculus, the ceasefire might not have materialized. ## Israel's Far-Right Coalition and the Threat to the Peace Process Beyond Netanyahu's personal political calculations, the Israeli public and its political establishment present additional obstacles to the peace framework proposed by the Trump administration. The stipulations for Hamas fighters to be granted amnesty and for Israel to refrain from occupying or annexing the Gaza Strip are particularly contentious. Annexation is a deeply politically sensitive issue in Israel, with significant opposition, but the current political moment is one in which small, pro-annexation parties maintain a controlling influence over domestic policy. Israel's far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, a critical political ally of Netanyahu, expressed in the wake of the ceasefire that he and his Religious Zionism party would fiercely oppose an end to the war. On social media, Smotrich stated that he hopes "immediately after the hostages return home, the state of Israel will continue to strive with all its might for the true eradication of Hamas and the genuine disarmament of Gaza, so that it no longer poses a threat to Israel." Another far-right leader, Minister for National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, expressed agreement while issuing a direct threat to Netanyahu: "We are happy about the release of all the hostages, but we will vote against the release of murderers. The Prime Minister committed to me that Hamas will be dismantled. If it doesn't happen? We will dismantle the government." Even for relative moderates in Israel, the prospect of Hamas fighters being granted amnesty and safe passage to any destination worldwide is deeply troubling. The global Jewish population faces the ongoing threat of anti-Semitic attacks around the world, and there are concerns that ex-Hamas militants could align with other forms of radical ideology abroad or take up arms alongside other Iran-backed proxy groups. ## A Fragile Moment of Hope Despite the formidable array of obstacles that lie ahead, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas represents a genuine cause for optimism — the first in many months. The fighting in Gaza, for now, is over. Hostages are expected to come home. Humanitarian aid is poised to flow into a territory where it is desperately needed. And for the first time since the conflict began, there is a diplomatic framework — however imperfect and contested — around which future negotiations can be organized. But peace, if it is truly on the horizon, will not happen by accident. It will require both Israel and Hamas to hold to the ceasefire, work through the massive enduring issues that remain, and resist the domestic and strategic pressures that could pull them back toward conflict. This ceasefire is not the end of the story. What Israel and Hamas do with it — and what the international community does to support it — will determine whether the people of Israel and the people of Gaza can finally return to a life without war. ## Related Coverage - [The UAE is Destabilizing the Entire Middle East](https://warfronts.pub/conflicts/the-uae-is-destabilizing-the-entire-middle-east) - [How the UAE's Regional Meddling Triggered a Historic Realignment Across the Middle East](https://warfronts.pub/geopolitics/uae-destabilizing-middle-east-regional-realignment-2026) - [The UAE's Regional Ambitions Collapse as Middle East Powers Push Back](https://warfronts.pub/geopolitics/uae-regional-ambitions-collapse-middle-east-pushback) ## Frequently Asked Questions ### What are the three main provisions of the phase-one ceasefire? The first phase of the ceasefire revolves around a mutual prisoner exchange, a phased Israeli withdrawal from parts of Gaza, and a massive influx of humanitarian aid into the territory. Hamas commits to releasing all twenty remaining living Israeli hostages, Israel releases approximately two thousand Palestinian prisoners, Israeli forces withdraw from a significant portion of Gaza they controlled, and at least four hundred aid trucks surge in almost immediately. ### How many Palestinian prisoners will Israel release and what are the points of contention? Israel is expected to release approximately two thousand Palestinian prisoners, including over 1,700 detained in Gaza and 250 currently serving life sentences. Hamas submitted a list of prisoners it wishes to see released, and victims of those prisoners' attacks have twenty-four hours to register objections. Particularly contentious figures include Marwan al-Barghouti, whom Palestinians widely favor as a future head of state, and former militant leader Ahmed Saadat — Israel has already stated it will not release Barghouti. ### How much of Gaza will Israel control after withdrawing under the ceasefire terms? According to Washington, Israel will withdraw to about fifty-eight percent of Gaza's territory, down from the more than eighty percent it controlled when the ceasefire was agreed, though an Israeli spokesperson suggested the figure may be closer to fifty-three percent. Israel will maintain its presence in most of Rafah and a majority of Khan Younis, and will retain control of all border access points. ### What political pressures inside Israel threaten the ceasefire? Far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich stated his party would fiercely oppose an end to the war, and national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir threatened to collapse the government if Hamas is not dismantled. Beyond coalition politics, Netanyahu faces elections no later than October 2026, and some analysts believe his incentive to retain power could drive him to resume the war once the hostages are home. ### What is the Trump administration's twenty-point peace plan and why is it contentious? The plan calls for Israel to grant amnesty to Hamas members and allow them safe passage abroad, Hamas to disarm voluntarily and be barred from governing Gaza, and the territory to be temporarily run by a technocratic Palestinian committee overseen by an international board led by Trump. Hamas has already rejected the idea of an international board, Israel's far-right parties oppose amnesty for Hamas fighters, and the prohibition on annexation conflicts with the goals of influential coalition members. ## Sources - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -