--- title: "The Wagner Group, Evolving: Cossack Camps, Rosgvardia, and the Africa Corps" description: "As they marched on Moscow, it seemed as if the entire world hung in the balance. After years spent as Vladimir Putin's shadow hand around the globe, after months of distinguishing themselves as the most brutal and bloodthirsty combatants of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Wagner Group had turned its sights on Russia itself—and there was no guarantee that they could be stopped.\n\nIn the months that followed, the world might have felt as if it were watching the collapse of a rising empire, nearly as quickly as it had risen from nothing. First, the advance on Moscow was brought to a decisive end. Then, after months of questions and speculation, the group's leaders were sent plummeting from the sky in a trail of ash and fire. Their command was dismantled, their soldiers were scattered to the wind, and it seemed as if the Wagner Group was gone for good.\n\nBut the sun now rises on a new era for what is left of Wagner: scattered, certainly, and with as much of its future still unclear as ever. One thing, though, has become certain. Wagner is not dead—it is evolving. Cut one head from the hydra, and two more will take its place. The thesis of this analysis is simple: Wagner has not left Russia's global military infrastructure, but quietly re-rooted itself inside it, reborn under new banners at home and abroad.\n\n## Key Takeaways\n- Anton Yelizarov, callsign \"Lotus,\" is the highest known authority in Wagner today, having reportedly taken over as the group's top combat commander and its lead in training after Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin died in an August 2023 plane crash.\n- In an early-February 2024 video, Yelizarov confirmed that Wagner is building \"Cossack Camps\" headquarters and folding into Rosgvardia, Russia's National Guard, supplying volunteers to fight alongside it.\n- Folding Wagner into Rosgvardia keeps the group fighting in Russia's interest while guarding against another Prigozhin-style uprising; Rosgvardia is on paper separate from the Ministry of Defense and reports directly to Putin.\n- The Cossack Camps are being built not in Belarus but inside Russia, in Rostov Oblast, near the barracks of the 150th Motor Rifle Division—a region where Wagner is believed to be popular.\n- Abroad, a new force called the Africa Corps—a creation of the Russian Ministry of Defense—appears to be taking direct control of Wagner's operations in Mali, Libya, Burkina Faso, and partly the Central African Republic.\n- British intelligence indicates three former Wagner assault units will be integrated into a first Volunteer Corps unit, with fighters cycled to Ukraine on six-month contracts or Africa on nine-month ones.\n- The long-term risk remains that Rosgvardia could consume Wagner, only to be consumed by it years or decades later—if a leader with Prigozhin-level ambition ever emerges.\n\n## Welcome to Cossack Camp\n\nMeet Anton Yelizarov. Born in 1981 in the Rostov Oblast of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, Yelizarov has been part of a military for all of his adult life. By eighteen, he had graduated from military school; by twenty-three, he had become commander of an airborne platoon. After more than a decade of service to modern Russia, he was booted from the ranks of the Russian military on charges of crimes against property—but that was not the end of his career.\n\nFrom Russia's military proper, Yelizarov joined a rising underground force in his nation: the nascent Wagner Group, then just getting its start under its military commander Dmitry Utkin and its public sponsor Yevgeny Prigozhin. Under their command, Yelizarov served in Syria, trained troops in the Central African Republic, commanded elite stormtrooper units in Libya, and led the assault on the Ukrainian city of Soledar and the now-ravaged town of Bakhmut. For that work he earned the title Hero of the Russian Federation—and a distinction he prized perhaps even more dearly: his callsign, Lotus.\n\nWhen Wagner had its world rocked in August 2023, with Prigozhin and Utkin killed in a fiery plane crash, it was Lotus who was suspected of having assumed command. The remnants of Wagner denied that claim—perhaps because it was false, or perhaps because it served Yelizarov better to lead from the shadows, especially given the fate that had befallen the organization's last publicly known commanders. But according to official Wagner sources, Yelizarov had indeed taken over both the role of Wagner's top combat commander and its lead position in training. Whom he might answer to remained unclear, then as now, but his is the highest known authority among Wagner today.\n\nSo when Yelizarov went missing, speculation rightly ran wild. For days after Russian sources first noted his disappearance, it was unclear what, if anything, had happened to him. Perhaps he had fallen out of favor with Putin. Perhaps he had shipped off to command Wagner forces directly in some quiet, backwater conflict. Or perhaps he was already dead, knocked off by the next ambitious Wagner leader who thought he deserved a crack at the top job. Regardless, it would be almost impossible to catch sight of him again if he did not want to be found—if he chose, or was forced, to disappear into the darkest corners of Russia's paramilitary scene.\n\nAs it turned out, the real answer was \"none of the above.\" In early February 2024, Yelizarov did the one thing nobody expected. He appeared on camera for the first time since the deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin and delivered a statement so revealing it is worth reproducing in full.\n\n## Yelizarov's Statement, in His Own Words\n\n\"We continue to work,\" Yelizarov said. \"We continue to work on the African continent and we continue to work in Belarus. For the good of Russia, we are working successfully. I am located at the group's headquarters in Cossack Camps. We are building a camp, so that the new units that will be formed—which will become part of the volunteer corps of Russia's National Guard—can arrive and settle. The camp continues to grow and be built. We are moving towards our goal. Places for accommodation and meals are ready for arrivals. I want to say to the people of the Russian Federation: We have always defended, are defending and will defend the people of the Russian Federation and the interests of the Russian Federation, and we will do this anywhere in the world. We are moving towards our goals with big steps and with our head held high.\"\n\nThat is a lot to unpack, and the statement is worth reading directly, because it offers the clearest look yet into the current state of the Wagner Group since the group's attempted mutiny. Yelizarov's admission that Wagner has continued its work, both in Africa and Belarus, is not necessarily a surprise. But with the African contingents now operating largely on their own, it is telling that Yelizarov still seems to consider Wagner's African detachments part of the same command structure.\n\nMore important still is the confirmation of what Western intelligence had suspected for months: that Wagner was on its way back to operations inside Russia, and possibly even in Ukraine, under a new banner. Yelizarov explained that his training camp—apparently named the Cossack Camps, in reference to the fiercely independent and militarily elite Cossacks of Russia's past—would send volunteers to fight alongside Russia's National Guard. Wagner itself is believed to have begun absorbing itself into that National Guard, known as Rosgvardia.\n\n## Folding Wagner Into Rosgvardia\n\nThe decision to incorporate Wagner into Rosgvardia accomplishes several things at once. It allows the group's fighters to keep fighting in Russia's interest, and it should, in theory, allay Moscow's fears that Wagner might one day repeat the affairs of July and August 2023. By making Wagner directly subsidiary to Rosgvardia, Putin ensures that there can be no Prigozhin-style uprising without a great many very obvious organizational changes preceding it.\n\nThe arrangement also lets Wagner fighters continue their work without subordinating themselves directly to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Rosgvardia is, at least on paper, separate from the Russian Armed Forces and reports directly to Vladimir Putin himself. That separation from the Ministry of Defense matters a great deal, because Wagner and the Ministry have a long history of serious antagonism. Finally, the move ensures Russia continues to benefit from Wagner's combat prowess. Its experienced troops are in high demand on the front lines in Ukraine, and its mass numbers of prison convicts are far easier for Moscow to deploy when the Russian government itself is not the entity having to recruit and train them.\n\nAccording to British intelligence, three former Wagner assault units are to be integrated into the first Volunteer Corps unit—whether a regiment, a brigade, or some other formation—that Yelizarov and his forces will apparently train. These Wagner fighters are thus copy-pasted directly into Rosgvardia's volunteer units and sent back to the front lines in Ukraine, where they are so desperately needed. Some of those fighters and their fellow volunteers will also head to Africa, for contract periods of nine months on the African continent versus six months in Ukraine.\n\n## A Base in Rostov, Not Belarus\n\nJust as interesting as Wagner's new place in the Russian military architecture is the physical location of these Cossack Camps. They are being built not in Belarus, where Wagner was banished for a time after Prigozhin's failed mutiny, but inside Russia itself. Specifically, they are believed to be in the region, or oblast, of Rostov, in a facility shared with or adjacent to the barracks of Russia's 150th Motor Rifle Division.\n\nWagner is believed to be popular in Rostov Oblast. Locals appeared on video cheering and taking pictures with Wagner troops in the regional capital, Rostov-on-Don, as those troops passed through on their march toward Moscow. The decision to allow Wagner to set up a base inside Russia—let alone in Rostov specifically—should indicate at least some confidence on Russia's part that Wagner and Yelizarov are now firmly under Russian control, and are considered safe enough to be welcomed back into the country in force.\n\nThe Rosgvardia decision also raises the importance of Putin's recent move to equip the National Guard with heavier weaponry than it previously possessed. That decision came in the wake of Wagner's march on Moscow, when Rosgvardia proved unable or unwilling to intervene and slow the mercenaries down. That failure has since been explained to Putin as a consequence of Rosgvardia lacking the armored vehicles and other equipment it needed to go toe-to-toe with Wagner. Now the mercenaries are on track to come into possession of much of that same equipment, along with the other perks of full acceptance into the above-board Russian defense apparatus.\n\n## The Africa Corps\n\nThe re-emergence of Anton Yelizarov is not the only notable piece of Wagner news to surface recently. As the Cossack Camp sets itself up in Rostov, a new force appears to be rising several thousand kilometers away: the Africa Corps. If the name sounds familiar, that is no accident. The German Afrika Korps was an elite desert warfare force under the command of Erwin Rommel, and this new Russian organization appears to have adopted the same title. Unlike the army of old, today's Africa Corps is firmly under the command of Vladimir Putin, and it is actively recruiting in hopes of spreading Russian influence across the continent.\n\nTraditionally, operations in Africa have been considered firmly the Wagner Group's domain. Because the mercenary force was technically not part of the Russian military, it gave Moscow plausible deniability for its operations in the region—even though Wagner was there on Russia's orders, protecting Russia's interests. Among those interests are oil fields, mines for precious metals and gems, and friendly ruling regimes across a range of African nations: all things Russia wants to protect, but none it wants to be outright responsible for.\n\nIn the wake of Wagner's march on Moscow, significant portions of the group were punished and even booted out of Russia. Yet the African contingents kept up their work, leading some experts to question whether they were really part of a cohesive Wagner Group anymore, or had simply become local warlords paying tribute to Moscow. The arrival of the Africa Corps changes that calculus in a big way. The name is only semi-official, but the paramilitary organization itself is a creation of the Russian Ministry of Defense—and while it remains, technically, a paramilitary operation, it is far more clearly under Russia's command than Wagner ever was.\n\nAs with the decision to sublimate Wagner to Rosgvardia at home, Putin appears willing to trade away some plausible deniability for greater confidence that there will be no repeat of the 2023 incident. The Africa Corps appears to be taking direct control of Wagner's operations in Mali, Libya, Burkina Faso, and, at least to an extent, the Central African Republic. Former Wagner employees there have been given the choice to join the Africa Corps or quit, and they remain free to wear their Wagner insignia, keep their internal traditions, and fight in the same units under the same commanders as before.\n\n## What Wagner Has Been Doing Across Africa\n\nWhat Wagner was doing in each of those countries depends on where you look. In Burkina Faso, a force of roughly 100 fighters—set to rise to around 300 soon—is setting up shop with the intent of safeguarding the country's ruling military junta. In Libya, fighters have committed war crimes and served on the front lines in service to the warlord Khalifa Haftar, who, despite not technically being at war with the Libyan government at this moment, nonetheless maintains one side of a low-grade conflict that has never really stopped since the end of Libya's Second Civil War.\n\nIn Mali, Wagner has been working overtime to support a ruling military junta against insurgents in the Sahel region. The group is suspected of involvement in some highly questionable activities there, including a mass summary execution of Malians only weeks before this account was prepared. And in the Central African Republic, Wagner props up the regime of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra and maintains a strong military presence watching over gold mines, extracting precious metals through mining companies it owns or controls.\n\nWith each of these sub-groups now coming under the command of the Africa Corps, Russia's presence on the continent appears unlikely to fade anytime soon. In fact, Russia may be willing to drop some of the secrecy and illusion around its support of authoritarian—and often violent—leaders there. While the Wagner forces in the Central African Republic may prove difficult to control, on account of their size and wealth, the others appear to be falling in line rather neatly.\n\nWith a sustained, strategically organized Russian presence on the continent, Africa has no shortage of countries that might want an Africa Corps detachment of their own. Alongside Mali and Burkina Faso, the nations of Guinea, Niger, and Gabon are each ruled by military juntas following a series of recent coups, and like Mali and Burkina Faso, those coup leaders may be willing to pay extra for their own protection. The Democratic Republic of the Congo's leader, Félix Tshisekedi, is believed to be shopping around for a potential partnership with Wagner. Chad's leader, Mahamat Déby, has held recent meetings with Putin and subsequently promised that \"many things will change.\" Several other nations on the continent are actively engaged in war or dealing with violent insurgencies that the Africa Corps could help to suppress.\n\n## One Wagner, Many Wagners\n\nIn examining the strange, nebulous evolutions of the Wagner Group as it exists right now, it is important to acknowledge that there is just as much we still do not know as what we do. What will become of Wagner's troops in Belarus—will they remain independent, become contractors or even part of the Belarusian military, or join Russian forces, whether in Rosgvardia or elsewhere? What about the group believed to be under the command of Andrei Troshev, already fighting in Ukraine? And what will be the actual work of the Wagner fighters in the new Cossack Camps?\n\nAre they simply there to give established Wagner mercenaries new uniform patches and send them back into combat? Or, if they train new Wagner-style fighters en masse, will those recruits be elite models of what Wagner veterans have been in the past—or just another batch of conscripts in an overwhelmingly conscripted army?\n\nIf one thing is for sure, it is that the Wagner Group will not be stepping out of Russia's global military infrastructure anytime soon. Although the rise of the new Africa Corps is a change in name and organization for the former Wagner detachments there, the Africa Corps is only a somewhat altered version of the same overall strategic vision. Wagner—whether it is called Wagner or not—will remain active in protecting Russian interests abroad and propping up the few real allies Russia has left.\n\nJust as important is the news that Wagner will now operate large-scale training camps inside Russia again, this time with the backing, support, and authority of Rosgvardia. For nearly all of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Wagner's elite fighters have been among the best on the battlefield, and their apparent lack of hesitation to engage in all manner of crimes against humanity has granted them a fearsome reputation in the eyes of combatants on both sides. With Russia's military having apparently lost a sizeable proportion of the experienced soldiers it fielded before the war, Russia proper now relies largely on conscripts—conscripts who pick up anything beyond the basics desperately and with little proper instruction as they try to survive. Wagner, by contrast, appears to invest far more time getting its recruits into fighting shape, and Russia is now putting that training capability to work in service of its own interests.\n\n## The Implications of a Wagner Return\n\nThen there are the implications of a Wagner return to the battlefields of Ukraine. Those battlefields are frozen not just by the bitter post-Soviet winter, but by a long stalemate that has left Ukraine unable to make much forward progress. The work Ukraine did to slowly grind its way eastward, digging up ungodly numbers of landmines in the process, will likely have to be repeated—and that is only if Ukraine can keep what little initiative it has left.\n\nWith Western financial support and arms shipments drying up, F-16s and main battle tanks far from the front lines, and morale dipping lower and lower on the home front, Ukraine may be forced to pivot toward a long defense sooner rather than later. That is a defense that could probably hold out against the Russian forces it currently faces. But that story could be rewritten very quickly if experienced, highly knowledgeable ex-Wagner fighters begin to show up again in large numbers.\n\nLastly, there is the potential—however long it might take to be realized—that Wagner could turn back toward Russia and begin its own takeover within Rosgvardia. Even attempting such a thing would require a leader with the ambition of a Prigozhin or a Utkin, and the conviction that his way to lead is the only way. Whether Yelizarov and his deputies even harbor that ambition, we do not know. It would also be extremely risky: Putin, current leaders within Rosgvardia, and the rest of the Russian military would likely notice a Wagner leader climbing toward the top and start ringing alarm bells. But with Wagner now incorporated into the ranks of Rosgvardia—a national guard with hundreds of thousands of soldiers and far more power, influence, and resources than Wagner ever had—the path still exists for Rosgvardia to consume Wagner, only to be consumed by it, a few years or even a couple of decades down the road.\n\nIn the short but complex history of the Wagner Group, the organization's next moves have never truly been clear. But now it appears that the remnants of Wagner are headed back toward the front lines across the globe. When they arrive, they will bring to bear the same ruthless, destructive, and utterly soulless violence that has become a hallmark of their operations—and the people forced to stand against them will have to hold back a hydra that simply will not stop growing new heads.\n\n## Frequently Asked Questions\n\n### Who is Anton Yelizarov, and what did he reveal in his February 2024 video?\n\nAnton Yelizarov, callsign \"Lotus,\" is believed to be the highest known authority in the Wagner Group today after Prigozhin and Utkin died in an August 2023 plane crash. In early February 2024, he appeared on camera for the first time, confirming that Wagner continues working in Africa and Belarus, that new units being formed at the \"Cossack Camps\" would join the volunteer corps of Russia's National Guard, and that Wagner would defend Russia's interests \"anywhere in the world.\"\n\n### What is Rosgvardia, and why is Wagner being folded into it?\n\nRosgvardia is Russia's National Guard — at least on paper separate from the Russian Armed Forces and reporting directly to Vladimir Putin. Folding Wagner in lets its fighters keep fighting in Russia's interest while guarding against another Prigozhin-style uprising, allows Wagner to avoid the Ministry of Defense it has long antagonized, and lets Moscow benefit from Wagner's combat experience and ability to recruit prison convicts.\n\n### Where are the new Cossack Camps, and why does their location matter?\n\nThe Cossack Camps are being built inside Russia — not in Belarus, where Wagner was banished after Prigozhin's failed mutiny — specifically in Rostov Oblast, believed to be near the barracks of Russia's 150th Motor Rifle Division. Wagner is popular in the region; locals cheered its troops in Rostov-on-Don during the march on Moscow, signaling that Russia considers Wagner and Yelizarov sufficiently under control to welcome them back.\n\n### What is the Africa Corps, and what is it replacing?\n\nThe Africa Corps is a semi-officially named paramilitary organization created by the Russian Ministry of Defense — unlike Wagner, it is much more clearly under Russia's direct command. It is taking control of Wagner's operations in Mali, Libya, Burkina Faso, and partly the Central African Republic, with former Wagner personnel given the choice to join or quit while keeping their insignia, traditions, and commanders. Russia appears willing to trade some plausible deniability for greater control after the 2023 mutiny.\n\n### Could Wagner eventually take over Rosgvardia from within?\n\nIt is possible in the long term but would be difficult and extremely risky. Such an attempt would require a leader with the ambition of Prigozhin or Utkin, and it is unknown whether Yelizarov harbors that goal. Putin, Rosgvardia's current leaders, and the broader Russian military would likely notice and react to any Wagner figure climbing toward the top. Still, with Wagner now embedded inside a national guard with hundreds of thousands of soldiers and far more resources than Wagner ever had, the path exists for Rosgvardia to consume Wagner only to be consumed by it years or decades later.\n\n## Sources\n1. \n2. \n3. \n4. \n5. \n6. \n7. \n8. \n9. \n10. \n11. \n12. \n13. \n14. \n15. \n16. \n17. \n18. \n19. \n\n" url: https://warfronts.pub/article/wagner-group-hydra-evolving-rosgvardia-africa-corps.md canonical: https://warfronts.pub/article/wagner-group-hydra-evolving-rosgvardia-africa-corps datePublished: 2026-06-02 dateModified: 2026-06-02 author: - name: Simon Whistler url: https://warfronts.pub/author/simon-whistler publisher: Warfronts image: "https://media.warfronts.pub/cdn-cgi/image/width=1600,height=900,fit=cover,quality=80,format=auto/articles/3lD80nYW8cA/hero.jpg" type: NewsArticle contentHash: 679cb40b1416136842865e648bf01aae5257c2a53f567163427562fe39948de5 tokens: 6391 summaryUrl: https://warfronts.pub/article/wagner-group-hydra-evolving-rosgvardia-africa-corps.md.summary.md --- As they marched on Moscow, it seemed as if the entire world hung in the balance. After years spent as Vladimir Putin's shadow hand around the globe, after months of distinguishing themselves as the most brutal and bloodthirsty combatants of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Wagner Group had turned its sights on Russia itself—and there was no guarantee that they could be stopped. In the months that followed, the world might have felt as if it were watching the collapse of a rising empire, nearly as quickly as it had risen from nothing. First, the advance on Moscow was brought to a decisive end. Then, after months of questions and speculation, the group's leaders were sent plummeting from the sky in a trail of ash and fire. Their command was dismantled, their soldiers were scattered to the wind, and it seemed as if the Wagner Group was gone for good. But the sun now rises on a new era for what is left of Wagner: scattered, certainly, and with as much of its future still unclear as ever. One thing, though, has become certain. Wagner is not dead—it is evolving. Cut one head from the hydra, and two more will take its place. The thesis of this analysis is simple: Wagner has not left Russia's global military infrastructure, but quietly re-rooted itself inside it, reborn under new banners at home and abroad. ## Key Takeaways - Anton Yelizarov, callsign "Lotus," is the highest known authority in Wagner today, having reportedly taken over as the group's top combat commander and its lead in training after Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin died in an August 2023 plane crash. - In an early-February 2024 video, Yelizarov confirmed that Wagner is building "Cossack Camps" headquarters and folding into Rosgvardia, Russia's National Guard, supplying volunteers to fight alongside it. - Folding Wagner into Rosgvardia keeps the group fighting in Russia's interest while guarding against another Prigozhin-style uprising; Rosgvardia is on paper separate from the Ministry of Defense and reports directly to Putin. - The Cossack Camps are being built not in Belarus but inside Russia, in Rostov Oblast, near the barracks of the 150th Motor Rifle Division—a region where Wagner is believed to be popular. - Abroad, a new force called the Africa Corps—a creation of the Russian Ministry of Defense—appears to be taking direct control of Wagner's operations in Mali, Libya, Burkina Faso, and partly the Central African Republic. - British intelligence indicates three former Wagner assault units will be integrated into a first Volunteer Corps unit, with fighters cycled to Ukraine on six-month contracts or Africa on nine-month ones. - The long-term risk remains that Rosgvardia could consume Wagner, only to be consumed by it years or decades later—if a leader with Prigozhin-level ambition ever emerges. ## Welcome to Cossack Camp Meet Anton Yelizarov. Born in 1981 in the Rostov Oblast of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, Yelizarov has been part of a military for all of his adult life. By eighteen, he had graduated from military school; by twenty-three, he had become commander of an airborne platoon. After more than a decade of service to modern Russia, he was booted from the ranks of the Russian military on charges of crimes against property—but that was not the end of his career. From Russia's military proper, Yelizarov joined a rising underground force in his nation: the nascent Wagner Group, then just getting its start under its military commander Dmitry Utkin and its public sponsor Yevgeny Prigozhin. Under their command, Yelizarov served in Syria, trained troops in the Central African Republic, commanded elite stormtrooper units in Libya, and led the assault on the Ukrainian city of Soledar and the now-ravaged town of Bakhmut. For that work he earned the title Hero of the Russian Federation—and a distinction he prized perhaps even more dearly: his callsign, Lotus. When Wagner had its world rocked in August 2023, with Prigozhin and Utkin killed in a fiery plane crash, it was Lotus who was suspected of having assumed command. The remnants of Wagner denied that claim—perhaps because it was false, or perhaps because it served Yelizarov better to lead from the shadows, especially given the fate that had befallen the organization's last publicly known commanders. But according to official Wagner sources, Yelizarov had indeed taken over both the role of Wagner's top combat commander and its lead position in training. Whom he might answer to remained unclear, then as now, but his is the highest known authority among Wagner today. So when Yelizarov went missing, speculation rightly ran wild. For days after Russian sources first noted his disappearance, it was unclear what, if anything, had happened to him. Perhaps he had fallen out of favor with Putin. Perhaps he had shipped off to command Wagner forces directly in some quiet, backwater conflict. Or perhaps he was already dead, knocked off by the next ambitious Wagner leader who thought he deserved a crack at the top job. Regardless, it would be almost impossible to catch sight of him again if he did not want to be found—if he chose, or was forced, to disappear into the darkest corners of Russia's paramilitary scene. As it turned out, the real answer was "none of the above." In early February 2024, Yelizarov did the one thing nobody expected. He appeared on camera for the first time since the deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin and delivered a statement so revealing it is worth reproducing in full. ## Yelizarov's Statement, in His Own Words "We continue to work," Yelizarov said. "We continue to work on the African continent and we continue to work in Belarus. For the good of Russia, we are working successfully. I am located at the group's headquarters in Cossack Camps. We are building a camp, so that the new units that will be formed—which will become part of the volunteer corps of Russia's National Guard—can arrive and settle. The camp continues to grow and be built. We are moving towards our goal. Places for accommodation and meals are ready for arrivals. I want to say to the people of the Russian Federation: We have always defended, are defending and will defend the people of the Russian Federation and the interests of the Russian Federation, and we will do this anywhere in the world. We are moving towards our goals with big steps and with our head held high." That is a lot to unpack, and the statement is worth reading directly, because it offers the clearest look yet into the current state of the Wagner Group since the group's attempted mutiny. Yelizarov's admission that Wagner has continued its work, both in Africa and Belarus, is not necessarily a surprise. But with the African contingents now operating largely on their own, it is telling that Yelizarov still seems to consider Wagner's African detachments part of the same command structure. More important still is the confirmation of what Western intelligence had suspected for months: that Wagner was on its way back to operations inside Russia, and possibly even in Ukraine, under a new banner. Yelizarov explained that his training camp—apparently named the Cossack Camps, in reference to the fiercely independent and militarily elite Cossacks of Russia's past—would send volunteers to fight alongside Russia's National Guard. Wagner itself is believed to have begun absorbing itself into that National Guard, known as Rosgvardia. ## Folding Wagner Into Rosgvardia The decision to incorporate Wagner into Rosgvardia accomplishes several things at once. It allows the group's fighters to keep fighting in Russia's interest, and it should, in theory, allay Moscow's fears that Wagner might one day repeat the affairs of July and August 2023. By making Wagner directly subsidiary to Rosgvardia, Putin ensures that there can be no Prigozhin-style uprising without a great many very obvious organizational changes preceding it. The arrangement also lets Wagner fighters continue their work without subordinating themselves directly to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Rosgvardia is, at least on paper, separate from the Russian Armed Forces and reports directly to Vladimir Putin himself. That separation from the Ministry of Defense matters a great deal, because Wagner and the Ministry have a long history of serious antagonism. Finally, the move ensures Russia continues to benefit from Wagner's combat prowess. Its experienced troops are in high demand on the front lines in Ukraine, and its mass numbers of prison convicts are far easier for Moscow to deploy when the Russian government itself is not the entity having to recruit and train them. According to British intelligence, three former Wagner assault units are to be integrated into the first Volunteer Corps unit—whether a regiment, a brigade, or some other formation—that Yelizarov and his forces will apparently train. These Wagner fighters are thus copy-pasted directly into Rosgvardia's volunteer units and sent back to the front lines in Ukraine, where they are so desperately needed. Some of those fighters and their fellow volunteers will also head to Africa, for contract periods of nine months on the African continent versus six months in Ukraine. ## A Base in Rostov, Not Belarus Just as interesting as Wagner's new place in the Russian military architecture is the physical location of these Cossack Camps. They are being built not in Belarus, where Wagner was banished for a time after Prigozhin's failed mutiny, but inside Russia itself. Specifically, they are believed to be in the region, or oblast, of Rostov, in a facility shared with or adjacent to the barracks of Russia's 150th Motor Rifle Division. Wagner is believed to be popular in Rostov Oblast. Locals appeared on video cheering and taking pictures with Wagner troops in the regional capital, Rostov-on-Don, as those troops passed through on their march toward Moscow. The decision to allow Wagner to set up a base inside Russia—let alone in Rostov specifically—should indicate at least some confidence on Russia's part that Wagner and Yelizarov are now firmly under Russian control, and are considered safe enough to be welcomed back into the country in force. The Rosgvardia decision also raises the importance of Putin's recent move to equip the National Guard with heavier weaponry than it previously possessed. That decision came in the wake of Wagner's march on Moscow, when Rosgvardia proved unable or unwilling to intervene and slow the mercenaries down. That failure has since been explained to Putin as a consequence of Rosgvardia lacking the armored vehicles and other equipment it needed to go toe-to-toe with Wagner. Now the mercenaries are on track to come into possession of much of that same equipment, along with the other perks of full acceptance into the above-board Russian defense apparatus. ## The Africa Corps The re-emergence of Anton Yelizarov is not the only notable piece of Wagner news to surface recently. As the Cossack Camp sets itself up in Rostov, a new force appears to be rising several thousand kilometers away: the Africa Corps. If the name sounds familiar, that is no accident. The German Afrika Korps was an elite desert warfare force under the command of Erwin Rommel, and this new Russian organization appears to have adopted the same title. Unlike the army of old, today's Africa Corps is firmly under the command of Vladimir Putin, and it is actively recruiting in hopes of spreading Russian influence across the continent. Traditionally, operations in Africa have been considered firmly the Wagner Group's domain. Because the mercenary force was technically not part of the Russian military, it gave Moscow plausible deniability for its operations in the region—even though Wagner was there on Russia's orders, protecting Russia's interests. Among those interests are oil fields, mines for precious metals and gems, and friendly ruling regimes across a range of African nations: all things Russia wants to protect, but none it wants to be outright responsible for. In the wake of Wagner's march on Moscow, significant portions of the group were punished and even booted out of Russia. Yet the African contingents kept up their work, leading some experts to question whether they were really part of a cohesive Wagner Group anymore, or had simply become local warlords paying tribute to Moscow. The arrival of the Africa Corps changes that calculus in a big way. The name is only semi-official, but the paramilitary organization itself is a creation of the Russian Ministry of Defense—and while it remains, technically, a paramilitary operation, it is far more clearly under Russia's command than Wagner ever was. As with the decision to sublimate Wagner to Rosgvardia at home, Putin appears willing to trade away some plausible deniability for greater confidence that there will be no repeat of the 2023 incident. The Africa Corps appears to be taking direct control of Wagner's operations in Mali, Libya, Burkina Faso, and, at least to an extent, the Central African Republic. Former Wagner employees there have been given the choice to join the Africa Corps or quit, and they remain free to wear their Wagner insignia, keep their internal traditions, and fight in the same units under the same commanders as before. ## What Wagner Has Been Doing Across Africa What Wagner was doing in each of those countries depends on where you look. In Burkina Faso, a force of roughly 100 fighters—set to rise to around 300 soon—is setting up shop with the intent of safeguarding the country's ruling military junta. In Libya, fighters have committed war crimes and served on the front lines in service to the warlord Khalifa Haftar, who, despite not technically being at war with the Libyan government at this moment, nonetheless maintains one side of a low-grade conflict that has never really stopped since the end of Libya's Second Civil War. In Mali, Wagner has been working overtime to support a ruling military junta against insurgents in the Sahel region. The group is suspected of involvement in some highly questionable activities there, including a mass summary execution of Malians only weeks before this account was prepared. And in the Central African Republic, Wagner props up the regime of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra and maintains a strong military presence watching over gold mines, extracting precious metals through mining companies it owns or controls. With each of these sub-groups now coming under the command of the Africa Corps, Russia's presence on the continent appears unlikely to fade anytime soon. In fact, Russia may be willing to drop some of the secrecy and illusion around its support of authoritarian—and often violent—leaders there. While the Wagner forces in the Central African Republic may prove difficult to control, on account of their size and wealth, the others appear to be falling in line rather neatly. With a sustained, strategically organized Russian presence on the continent, Africa has no shortage of countries that might want an Africa Corps detachment of their own. Alongside Mali and Burkina Faso, the nations of Guinea, Niger, and Gabon are each ruled by military juntas following a series of recent coups, and like Mali and Burkina Faso, those coup leaders may be willing to pay extra for their own protection. The Democratic Republic of the Congo's leader, Félix Tshisekedi, is believed to be shopping around for a potential partnership with Wagner. Chad's leader, Mahamat Déby, has held recent meetings with Putin and subsequently promised that "many things will change." Several other nations on the continent are actively engaged in war or dealing with violent insurgencies that the Africa Corps could help to suppress. ## One Wagner, Many Wagners In examining the strange, nebulous evolutions of the Wagner Group as it exists right now, it is important to acknowledge that there is just as much we still do not know as what we do. What will become of Wagner's troops in Belarus—will they remain independent, become contractors or even part of the Belarusian military, or join Russian forces, whether in Rosgvardia or elsewhere? What about the group believed to be under the command of Andrei Troshev, already fighting in Ukraine? And what will be the actual work of the Wagner fighters in the new Cossack Camps? Are they simply there to give established Wagner mercenaries new uniform patches and send them back into combat? Or, if they train new Wagner-style fighters en masse, will those recruits be elite models of what Wagner veterans have been in the past—or just another batch of conscripts in an overwhelmingly conscripted army? If one thing is for sure, it is that the Wagner Group will not be stepping out of Russia's global military infrastructure anytime soon. Although the rise of the new Africa Corps is a change in name and organization for the former Wagner detachments there, the Africa Corps is only a somewhat altered version of the same overall strategic vision. Wagner—whether it is called Wagner or not—will remain active in protecting Russian interests abroad and propping up the few real allies Russia has left. Just as important is the news that Wagner will now operate large-scale training camps inside Russia again, this time with the backing, support, and authority of Rosgvardia. For nearly all of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Wagner's elite fighters have been among the best on the battlefield, and their apparent lack of hesitation to engage in all manner of crimes against humanity has granted them a fearsome reputation in the eyes of combatants on both sides. With Russia's military having apparently lost a sizeable proportion of the experienced soldiers it fielded before the war, Russia proper now relies largely on conscripts—conscripts who pick up anything beyond the basics desperately and with little proper instruction as they try to survive. Wagner, by contrast, appears to invest far more time getting its recruits into fighting shape, and Russia is now putting that training capability to work in service of its own interests. ## The Implications of a Wagner Return Then there are the implications of a Wagner return to the battlefields of Ukraine. Those battlefields are frozen not just by the bitter post-Soviet winter, but by a long stalemate that has left Ukraine unable to make much forward progress. The work Ukraine did to slowly grind its way eastward, digging up ungodly numbers of landmines in the process, will likely have to be repeated—and that is only if Ukraine can keep what little initiative it has left. With Western financial support and arms shipments drying up, F-16s and main battle tanks far from the front lines, and morale dipping lower and lower on the home front, Ukraine may be forced to pivot toward a long defense sooner rather than later. That is a defense that could probably hold out against the Russian forces it currently faces. But that story could be rewritten very quickly if experienced, highly knowledgeable ex-Wagner fighters begin to show up again in large numbers. Lastly, there is the potential—however long it might take to be realized—that Wagner could turn back toward Russia and begin its own takeover within Rosgvardia. Even attempting such a thing would require a leader with the ambition of a Prigozhin or a Utkin, and the conviction that his way to lead is the only way. Whether Yelizarov and his deputies even harbor that ambition, we do not know. It would also be extremely risky: Putin, current leaders within Rosgvardia, and the rest of the Russian military would likely notice a Wagner leader climbing toward the top and start ringing alarm bells. But with Wagner now incorporated into the ranks of Rosgvardia—a national guard with hundreds of thousands of soldiers and far more power, influence, and resources than Wagner ever had—the path still exists for Rosgvardia to consume Wagner, only to be consumed by it, a few years or even a couple of decades down the road. In the short but complex history of the Wagner Group, the organization's next moves have never truly been clear. But now it appears that the remnants of Wagner are headed back toward the front lines across the globe. When they arrive, they will bring to bear the same ruthless, destructive, and utterly soulless violence that has become a hallmark of their operations—and the people forced to stand against them will have to hold back a hydra that simply will not stop growing new heads. ## Frequently Asked Questions ### Who is Anton Yelizarov, and what did he reveal in his February 2024 video? Anton Yelizarov, callsign "Lotus," is believed to be the highest known authority in the Wagner Group today after Prigozhin and Utkin died in an August 2023 plane crash. In early February 2024, he appeared on camera for the first time, confirming that Wagner continues working in Africa and Belarus, that new units being formed at the "Cossack Camps" would join the volunteer corps of Russia's National Guard, and that Wagner would defend Russia's interests "anywhere in the world." ### What is Rosgvardia, and why is Wagner being folded into it? Rosgvardia is Russia's National Guard — at least on paper separate from the Russian Armed Forces and reporting directly to Vladimir Putin. Folding Wagner in lets its fighters keep fighting in Russia's interest while guarding against another Prigozhin-style uprising, allows Wagner to avoid the Ministry of Defense it has long antagonized, and lets Moscow benefit from Wagner's combat experience and ability to recruit prison convicts. ### Where are the new Cossack Camps, and why does their location matter? The Cossack Camps are being built inside Russia — not in Belarus, where Wagner was banished after Prigozhin's failed mutiny — specifically in Rostov Oblast, believed to be near the barracks of Russia's 150th Motor Rifle Division. Wagner is popular in the region; locals cheered its troops in Rostov-on-Don during the march on Moscow, signaling that Russia considers Wagner and Yelizarov sufficiently under control to welcome them back. ### What is the Africa Corps, and what is it replacing? The Africa Corps is a semi-officially named paramilitary organization created by the Russian Ministry of Defense — unlike Wagner, it is much more clearly under Russia's direct command. It is taking control of Wagner's operations in Mali, Libya, Burkina Faso, and partly the Central African Republic, with former Wagner personnel given the choice to join or quit while keeping their insignia, traditions, and commanders. Russia appears willing to trade some plausible deniability for greater control after the 2023 mutiny. ### Could Wagner eventually take over Rosgvardia from within? It is possible in the long term but would be difficult and extremely risky. Such an attempt would require a leader with the ambition of Prigozhin or Utkin, and it is unknown whether Yelizarov harbors that goal. Putin, Rosgvardia's current leaders, and the broader Russian military would likely notice and react to any Wagner figure climbing toward the top. Still, with Wagner now embedded inside a national guard with hundreds of thousands of soldiers and far more resources than Wagner ever had, the path exists for Rosgvardia to consume Wagner only to be consumed by it years or decades later. ## Sources 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. <!-- youtube:3lD80nYW8cA -->