--- title: "War is Coming. Europe isn't Ready." description: "War is Coming. Europe isn’t Ready. (Author: Morris M.) For Europeans, it’s the nightmare scenario. No, the only way that Europe will survive the coming years is if someone takes action today. Here’s how the FT glumly summed things up: “In practice many of those troops are unfit to be deployed.” Despite sounding impressive on paper, it turns out that without the Americans, Europe’s armies are way less than the sum of their parts.\n\n## Key Takeaways\n- The post-WWII security order is fracturing: with a US president parroting Kremlin talking points and Europe excluded from Ukraine peace talks, America can no longer be assumed to defend its NATO allies.\n- Despite impressive troop numbers on paper, the Financial Times notes that in practice many European troops are unfit for deployment, and NATO’s entire structure was built around US leadership that may no longer exist.\n- Europe lacks critical enablers — from air-defense systems and precision-guided munitions to multiple-launch rocket systems — that it has been slow to produce because governments refused to issue long-term industrial contracts.\n- Defense spending increases since 2022 have largely been \"making up ground\" rather than building genuine independent capability, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.\n- Eastern European nations are taking the threat most seriously, and there are signs Europe’s leaders are beginning to act — but the window for rearmament before a potential confrontation may be dangerously short.\n\n## Key Developments\n\nA world in which the United States doesn’t just suggest it wouldn’t protect their continent from attack, but seems to actually side with their mortal enemy. To say the last couple of weeks have upended geopolitics would be to significantly underestimate the Cascadia-sized mega-quake now ripping through Europe’s institutions. With a US president parroting Kremlin talking points, and the continent excluded from peace talks on Ukraine, the message could not be clearer: the post-WWII era is over. America will no longer protect its old allies. And with Putin still clinging to his imperial dreams that means one likely outcome: war is coming. A war of the kind not seen in this part of the world since 1945. It relies on America for that.” Even the continent’s nuclear option is at least partially dependent on the United States. Time and again, we’re going to highlight an area where it seems like the old continent is militarily capable, only to whisk back the curtain, and reveal the scrawny old man stood behind it. With the entirety of NATO organized around a strong United States taking the lead, the Uncle Sam-sized hole that a US withdrawal from Europe would leave is one that simply cannot be filled.\n\n## Strategic Implications\n\nAnd the worst part? Europe is not ready. Not even close. From manpower to missile defense, to access to key enablers, the old continent is woefully unprepared for a full-scale conflict on its turf. As the prospect of war with Russia looms, one question hangs over everything: can Europe rearm in time? Because if not, the continent may be doomed. (TITLE): Standing Start When talking about European defense, some American outlets like to emphasize that the continent has refused to wake up, not taking any action since the start of the full-scale invasion in February of 2022. The think tank lists examples such as: “Air defense systems, precision guided munitions, multiple launch rocket systems, and armored infantry fighting vehicles.” Even regarding stuff that Europe does build - like artillery shells - companies have been slow to expand production because governments have refused to issue long-term contracts. (TITLE): Waking the Beast For all the continent often seems paralyzed in the face of existential threat, there is evidence that Europe’s leaders are taking the current challenge seriously - particularly in the east.\n\n## Risk and Uncertainty\n\n(TITLE): Doomsday To read the coverage in the press, you’d be forgiven for thinking the apocalypse had come. Foreign Policy declared that: “Europe and NATO are facing an existential crisis.” The Economist, meanwhile, went with: “The past week has been the bleakest in Europe since the fall of the Iron Curtain (...) The implications for Europe’s security are grave.” The disaster they were referring to? The tide of bad news that began with the Munich conference on Valentine’s Day, carried across the talks between America and Russia in Saudi Arabia, and ended with the US refusing to sign a G7 statement calling Moscow the “aggressor” in the Ukraine War. A tide that included such jaw-dropping moments as the Secretary of Defense suggesting Washington would no longer defend Europe, and the US president repeating Russian disinformation. As the Carnegie Endowment for Peace wrote: “The turnaround is extraordinary: Once the United States’ Cold War archrival, Russia now puts words into Trump’s mouth.” But while the prospect of Washington pivoting towards Moscow’s cold embrace may have been chilling for many in Europe, it was the implication that America no longer had their backs that triggered panic. And with good reason.\n\n## Outlook\n\nWithout Washington’s military might, Europe isn’t just up sh*t creek - it’s flailing around as the boat capsizes and all that sweet-smelling manure closes over its head. In the words of the New York Times: “Decades of cuts have left Europe’s militaries unprepared for what might lie ahead. With equipment outdated and forces undersized, their ability to operate without U.S. backing has been diminished.” This would be bad enough at the best of times. But these times could hardly be worse. Russia has transitioned to a full war economy that can only be sustained by gobbling up more land and resources. Expand to include the armies of non-EU states, and Europe has something like 2 million military personnel - not including the vast reserves a country like Finland can call up at short notice. As Sean Monaghan from the Center for Strategic and International Studies told the New York Times, all that extra spending since February 2022 has simply been “making up ground”. This is important, because all too often, the mantra seems to be that if only Europe spent more, it would be able to defend itself without American help.\n\n## Frequently Asked Questions\n\n### Why is Europe considered unprepared for a potential conflict with Russia?\n\nEurope’s militaries have suffered decades of spending cuts that left equipment outdated and forces undersized. The continent also lacks key enablers — air-defense systems, precision-guided munitions, multiple-launch rocket systems — and defense companies have been slow to expand production because governments refused to issue long-term contracts. As the Financial Times noted, in practice many European troops are unfit to be deployed despite impressive numbers on paper.\n\n### What events triggered the current alarm about European security?\n\nThe crisis was crystallized by a wave of events beginning with the Munich security conference, followed by US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia that excluded Europe, and the US refusing to sign a G7 statement calling Russia the aggressor in Ukraine. These culminated in the Secretary of Defense suggesting Washington would no longer defend Europe and the US president repeating Russian disinformation, prompting Foreign Policy and The Economist to describe an existential crisis for Europe and NATO.\n\n### Why can’t Europe simply replace the United States’ role in NATO?\n\nNATO was organized entirely around a strong United States taking the lead, meaning the hole left by a US withdrawal cannot easily be filled. Even Europe’s nuclear deterrent is at least partially dependent on America. Extra defense spending since 2022 has, in the words of one analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, simply been “making up ground” rather than building the independent capability needed to match the US contribution.\n\n### Is Russia capable of attacking a NATO member country?\n\nRussia has transitioned to a full war economy that can only be sustained by gobbling up more land and resources, and Putin retains imperial ambitions over former Soviet territory. While Europe collectively has around 2 million military personnel — more than Russia — those forces depend heavily on US enablers, intelligence, and logistics. Without Washington’s backing, European forces are significantly less capable than their headline numbers suggest.\n\n### What steps are European nations taking to address the military shortfall?\n\nEastern nations in particular are taking the threat most seriously. There is evidence that European leaders are beginning to act — increasing defense budgets, seeking long-term production contracts with defense manufacturers, and reducing dependence on the United States. However, analysts warn that rearmament takes years, and the continent may face the risk of conflict before it has fully built the independent military capacity it needs.\n\n## Related Coverage\n- [This Is Ukraine’s Moment of Truth.](https://warfronts.pub/conflicts/this-is-ukraines-moment-of-truth)\n- [This Is Ukraine’s Moment of Truth.](https://warfronts.pub/conflicts/this-is-ukraines-moment-of-truth-1bmuupct)\n- [Russia’s Death Toll Tops 100,000 as Ukraine War’s Human Cost Deepens](https://warfronts-prod.fulcrum-labs.workers.dev/conflicts/russias-death-toll-tops-100k-ukraine-war-human-cost)\n- [South Sudan is on Fire. Here’s Why. (And More)](https://warfronts.pub/conflicts/south-sudan-is-on-fire-heres-why-and-more)\n- [Ukraine’s Moment of Truth: Inside the November 2025 Peace Proposal Designed to Fail](https://warfronts-prod.fulcrum-labs.workers.dev/geopolitics/ukraine-moment-of-truth-peace-proposal-designed-to-fail)\n\n## Sources\n1. \n2. \n3. \n4. \n5. \n6. \n7. \n8. \n9. \n10. \n11. \n12. \n13. \n14. \n\n[1]: https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/18/europe-defense-ukraine-trump-vance-munich/\n[2]: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/02/18/can-europe-defend-itself-without-america\n[3]: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/02/13/can-europe-defend-itself-from-russia/\n[4]: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/01/25/world/europe/nato-europe-defense-spending.html\n[5]: https://kyivindependent.com/eu-to-produce-2-million-artillery-shells-in-2025-new-defense-commissioner-tells-media/\n[6]: https://www.investigativejournalismforeu.net/interview-the-empty-promises-of-europes-artillery-build-up/\n[7]: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/europe-must-prepare-to-defend-itself-in-an-increasingly-multipolar-world/\n[8]: https://www.hudson.org/security-alliances/nato-not-ready-war-assessing-military-balance-between-alliance-russia-can-kasapoglu\n[9]: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/02/20/how-europe-must-respond-as-trump-and-putin-smash-the-post-war-order\n[10]: https://euro-sd.com/2025/01/articles/42257/just-in-time-is-dead-how-european-manufacturers-are-gearing-up-for-land-warfare/\n[11]: https://www.ft.com/content/beb38eb8-408c-4cdb-8086-77545d52099f\n[12]: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/how-europe-can-pay-for-rearmament/\n[13]: https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/strategic-europe/2025/02/taking-the-pulse-is-the-transatlantic-relationship-at-a-breaking-point?lang=en\n[14]: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/whos-at-2-percent-look-how-nato-allies-have-increased-their-defense-spending-since-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/\n\n" url: https://warfronts.pub/article/war-is-coming-europe-isnt-ready.md canonical: https://warfronts.pub/article/war-is-coming-europe-isnt-ready datePublished: 2026-02-25 dateModified: 2026-02-25 author: - name: Simon Whistler url: https://warfronts.pub/author/simon-whistler publisher: Warfronts image: "https://media.warfronts.pub/cdn-cgi/image/width=1600,height=900,fit=cover,quality=80,format=auto/articles/HOuSWQr_qZ8/hero.jpg" type: NewsArticle contentHash: 3f960fe721afb79bda3b961da90f37c200a85d0e0c1151edfc6da3aded509b8a tokens: 3238 summaryUrl: https://warfronts.pub/article/war-is-coming-europe-isnt-ready.md.summary.md --- War is Coming. Europe isn’t Ready. (Author: Morris M.) For Europeans, it’s the nightmare scenario. No, the only way that Europe will survive the coming years is if someone takes action today. Here’s how the FT glumly summed things up: “In practice many of those troops are unfit to be deployed.” Despite sounding impressive on paper, it turns out that without the Americans, Europe’s armies are way less than the sum of their parts. ## Key Takeaways - The post-WWII security order is fracturing: with a US president parroting Kremlin talking points and Europe excluded from Ukraine peace talks, America can no longer be assumed to defend its NATO allies. - Despite impressive troop numbers on paper, the Financial Times notes that in practice many European troops are unfit for deployment, and NATO’s entire structure was built around US leadership that may no longer exist. - Europe lacks critical enablers — from air-defense systems and precision-guided munitions to multiple-launch rocket systems — that it has been slow to produce because governments refused to issue long-term industrial contracts. - Defense spending increases since 2022 have largely been "making up ground" rather than building genuine independent capability, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. - Eastern European nations are taking the threat most seriously, and there are signs Europe’s leaders are beginning to act — but the window for rearmament before a potential confrontation may be dangerously short. ## Key Developments A world in which the United States doesn’t just suggest it wouldn’t protect their continent from attack, but seems to actually side with their mortal enemy. To say the last couple of weeks have upended geopolitics would be to significantly underestimate the Cascadia-sized mega-quake now ripping through Europe’s institutions. With a US president parroting Kremlin talking points, and the continent excluded from peace talks on Ukraine, the message could not be clearer: the post-WWII era is over. America will no longer protect its old allies. And with Putin still clinging to his imperial dreams that means one likely outcome: war is coming. A war of the kind not seen in this part of the world since 1945. It relies on America for that.” Even the continent’s nuclear option is at least partially dependent on the United States. Time and again, we’re going to highlight an area where it seems like the old continent is militarily capable, only to whisk back the curtain, and reveal the scrawny old man stood behind it. With the entirety of NATO organized around a strong United States taking the lead, the Uncle Sam-sized hole that a US withdrawal from Europe would leave is one that simply cannot be filled. ## Strategic Implications And the worst part? Europe is not ready. Not even close. From manpower to missile defense, to access to key enablers, the old continent is woefully unprepared for a full-scale conflict on its turf. As the prospect of war with Russia looms, one question hangs over everything: can Europe rearm in time? Because if not, the continent may be doomed. (TITLE): Standing Start When talking about European defense, some American outlets like to emphasize that the continent has refused to wake up, not taking any action since the start of the full-scale invasion in February of 2022. The think tank lists examples such as: “Air defense systems, precision guided munitions, multiple launch rocket systems, and armored infantry fighting vehicles.” Even regarding stuff that Europe does build - like artillery shells - companies have been slow to expand production because governments have refused to issue long-term contracts. (TITLE): Waking the Beast For all the continent often seems paralyzed in the face of existential threat, there is evidence that Europe’s leaders are taking the current challenge seriously - particularly in the east. ## Risk and Uncertainty (TITLE): Doomsday To read the coverage in the press, you’d be forgiven for thinking the apocalypse had come. Foreign Policy declared that: “Europe and NATO are facing an existential crisis.” The Economist, meanwhile, went with: “The past week has been the bleakest in Europe since the fall of the Iron Curtain (...) The implications for Europe’s security are grave.” The disaster they were referring to? The tide of bad news that began with the Munich conference on Valentine’s Day, carried across the talks between America and Russia in Saudi Arabia, and ended with the US refusing to sign a G7 statement calling Moscow the “aggressor” in the Ukraine War. A tide that included such jaw-dropping moments as the Secretary of Defense suggesting Washington would no longer defend Europe, and the US president repeating Russian disinformation. As the Carnegie Endowment for Peace wrote: “The turnaround is extraordinary: Once the United States’ Cold War archrival, Russia now puts words into Trump’s mouth.” But while the prospect of Washington pivoting towards Moscow’s cold embrace may have been chilling for many in Europe, it was the implication that America no longer had their backs that triggered panic. And with good reason. ## Outlook Without Washington’s military might, Europe isn’t just up sh*t creek - it’s flailing around as the boat capsizes and all that sweet-smelling manure closes over its head. In the words of the New York Times: “Decades of cuts have left Europe’s militaries unprepared for what might lie ahead. With equipment outdated and forces undersized, their ability to operate without U.S. backing has been diminished.” This would be bad enough at the best of times. But these times could hardly be worse. Russia has transitioned to a full war economy that can only be sustained by gobbling up more land and resources. Expand to include the armies of non-EU states, and Europe has something like 2 million military personnel - not including the vast reserves a country like Finland can call up at short notice. As Sean Monaghan from the Center for Strategic and International Studies told the New York Times, all that extra spending since February 2022 has simply been “making up ground”. This is important, because all too often, the mantra seems to be that if only Europe spent more, it would be able to defend itself without American help. ## Frequently Asked Questions ### Why is Europe considered unprepared for a potential conflict with Russia? Europe’s militaries have suffered decades of spending cuts that left equipment outdated and forces undersized. The continent also lacks key enablers — air-defense systems, precision-guided munitions, multiple-launch rocket systems — and defense companies have been slow to expand production because governments refused to issue long-term contracts. As the Financial Times noted, in practice many European troops are unfit to be deployed despite impressive numbers on paper. ### What events triggered the current alarm about European security? The crisis was crystallized by a wave of events beginning with the Munich security conference, followed by US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia that excluded Europe, and the US refusing to sign a G7 statement calling Russia the aggressor in Ukraine. These culminated in the Secretary of Defense suggesting Washington would no longer defend Europe and the US president repeating Russian disinformation, prompting Foreign Policy and The Economist to describe an existential crisis for Europe and NATO. ### Why can’t Europe simply replace the United States’ role in NATO? NATO was organized entirely around a strong United States taking the lead, meaning the hole left by a US withdrawal cannot easily be filled. Even Europe’s nuclear deterrent is at least partially dependent on America. Extra defense spending since 2022 has, in the words of one analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, simply been “making up ground” rather than building the independent capability needed to match the US contribution. ### Is Russia capable of attacking a NATO member country? Russia has transitioned to a full war economy that can only be sustained by gobbling up more land and resources, and Putin retains imperial ambitions over former Soviet territory. While Europe collectively has around 2 million military personnel — more than Russia — those forces depend heavily on US enablers, intelligence, and logistics. Without Washington’s backing, European forces are significantly less capable than their headline numbers suggest. ### What steps are European nations taking to address the military shortfall? Eastern nations in particular are taking the threat most seriously. There is evidence that European leaders are beginning to act — increasing defense budgets, seeking long-term production contracts with defense manufacturers, and reducing dependence on the United States. However, analysts warn that rearmament takes years, and the continent may face the risk of conflict before it has fully built the independent military capacity it needs. ## Related Coverage - [This Is Ukraine’s Moment of Truth.](https://warfronts.pub/conflicts/this-is-ukraines-moment-of-truth) - [This Is Ukraine’s Moment of Truth.](https://warfronts.pub/conflicts/this-is-ukraines-moment-of-truth-1bmuupct) - [Russia’s Death Toll Tops 100,000 as Ukraine War’s Human Cost Deepens](https://warfronts-prod.fulcrum-labs.workers.dev/conflicts/russias-death-toll-tops-100k-ukraine-war-human-cost) - [South Sudan is on Fire. Here’s Why. (And More)](https://warfronts.pub/conflicts/south-sudan-is-on-fire-heres-why-and-more) - [Ukraine’s Moment of Truth: Inside the November 2025 Peace Proposal Designed to Fail](https://warfronts-prod.fulcrum-labs.workers.dev/geopolitics/ukraine-moment-of-truth-peace-proposal-designed-to-fail) ## Sources 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. [1]: https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/18/europe-defense-ukraine-trump-vance-munich/ [2]: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/02/18/can-europe-defend-itself-without-america [3]: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/02/13/can-europe-defend-itself-from-russia/ [4]: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/01/25/world/europe/nato-europe-defense-spending.html [5]: https://kyivindependent.com/eu-to-produce-2-million-artillery-shells-in-2025-new-defense-commissioner-tells-media/ [6]: https://www.investigativejournalismforeu.net/interview-the-empty-promises-of-europes-artillery-build-up/ [7]: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/europe-must-prepare-to-defend-itself-in-an-increasingly-multipolar-world/ [8]: https://www.hudson.org/security-alliances/nato-not-ready-war-assessing-military-balance-between-alliance-russia-can-kasapoglu [9]: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/02/20/how-europe-must-respond-as-trump-and-putin-smash-the-post-war-order [10]: https://euro-sd.com/2025/01/articles/42257/just-in-time-is-dead-how-european-manufacturers-are-gearing-up-for-land-warfare/ [11]: https://www.ft.com/content/beb38eb8-408c-4cdb-8086-77545d52099f [12]: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/how-europe-can-pay-for-rearmament/ [13]: https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/strategic-europe/2025/02/taking-the-pulse-is-the-transatlantic-relationship-at-a-breaking-point?lang=en [14]: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/whos-at-2-percent-look-how-nato-allies-have-increased-their-defense-spending-since-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/