America's Covert Campaign to Annex Greenland

If you had only been vaguely following the news, you might have been under the impression that the story had died down. That it was just another of those things Donald Trump sometimes says that generate a couple of weeks’ worth of headlines, and then disappear entirely. After all, no one has mentioned Greenland annexation for a while now.

After a flurry of comments in January, and then again in the spring, when Trump refused to rule out taking the autonomous Danish territory by force, things seemed to have gone quiet on that front. The issue appeared overshadowed by events in the Middle East and at home in America. However, it turns out that this relative quiet may have been a way to divert attention from a coordinated, United States-backed influence campaign aimed at driving the vast, sparsely-populated land into American hands.

Uncovering the Alleged Influence Campaign

At least, those are the allegations aired recently by the Danish broadcaster DR. Speaking to sources in the Danish Police Intelligence Service (PET), the channel reported an assessment that Greenland, especially in the current situation, is a target for influence campaigns of various kinds. As to what those influence campaigns may be, they center around three unidentified American citizens who have been active on the island in recent months.

According to the broadcaster, the three are all connected to the current administration, and have close, personal ties to Donald Trump. DR describes one of the individuals as an American man who has been seen in public with the US president many times, and has recently been appointed to a role that could give him influence over US security policy. The broadcaster detailed how the man had apparently spent time compiling a list of names of Greenlanders who support the idea of America annexing the island.

Rather more chillingly, he also compiled a list of names of Greenlanders who are opponents of Donald Trump. Compiling a list of political enemies living on the island raises serious questions about the benign intentions of these operations. To be absolutely clear, there is as yet no definitive evidence that these Americans were working on direct orders from the president.

The broadcaster itself states that it has not been able to clarify whether the American men are working on their own initiative or under orders. The White House’s position since the story broke has been that these are three private citizens, enjoying their constitutional right to free speech. The official US line, as quoted by the BBC, was simply that the Danes need to calm down.

If that is the case, and it really is just three private citizens acting out childhood fantasies of being spies, then there is nothing to see here beyond a jittery European nation overreacting to some comments Trump once made that were never meant to be taken seriously. But the evidence suggests there could be far more to the situation. The Danish government summoned America’s highest-ranking diplomat in the country to complain after the reports broke.

Back in June, Emmanuel Macron, the leader of one of the only significant military powers in Europe, pointedly visited the island, saying that Greenland was “not to be sold.” This move was widely interpreted as a warning shot at Trump, demonstrating that international leaders believe the current administration is deadly serious about annexing the island.

The Strategic and Economic Drivers for Annexation

All of this raises critical questions regarding what evidence exists that Trump wants Greenland, why he would want this frozen, sparsely-populated island, and how he might go about getting it. The evidence of his desire is straightforward: he repeatedly states his intention to annex it. In March, he stated that the United States needs Greenland for international world security, adding his belief that America would ultimately acquire it one way or another.

Later in July, during an interview, he refused to rule out taking it by force, stating, “We need Greenland very badly. Greenland is a very small amount of people, which we’ll take care of, and we’ll cherish them, and all of that. But we need that for international security.”

Beyond public statements, there are institutional actions. The Wall Street Journal published a bombshell story in May revealing that America’s spy agencies had been given a “collection emphasis message” directing them to step up intelligence-gathering efforts on the island. Additional reporting from around that time indicated that Trump officials were mulling offering Greenland a Compact of Free Association (Cofa).

Such an agreement would pull the country into America’s orbit by offering it a similar deal to that held by Pacific Island nations like the Marshall Islands and Palau. Trump’s interest in Greenland is clearly established, an interest that stretches all the way back to his initial offer to buy it in 2019. The underlying motivations for this interest are largely economic and strategic.

An autonomous part of the Kingdom of Denmark, Greenland is home to a mere 57,000 people, who rely on massive Danish subsidies to keep their government afloat. It has inclement weather, a tiny economy, and very little infrastructure. However, locked away deep beneath its thawing surface are critical minerals.

These are vast deposits of minerals needed for modern hi-tech and military equipment, the kind the US deems vital for its national security. Furthermore, the US Geological Survey believes there may be vast fields of natural gas and 17.5 billion barrels of oil ready for extraction off the nation’s coast. Then there is the security dimension.

As the Arctic warms and competition increases in the once-frozen seas of the north, important new shipping routes will open to adversaries like Russia and China. Whoever holds Greenland will dominate those routes. In other words, there is a hard-nosed, realpolitik argument for US annexation of Greenland.

Exploiting Historical Grievances and Discord

If direct purchase is impossible because the Danes refuse and lack the authority to sell, and a full-blown military invasion is highly unlikely, the administration requires an alternative tactic. Danish intelligence sources explicitly ruled out a military invasion, noting the difficulty of winning domestic American backing for invading a peaceful country that has never done the US any harm. Consequently, the strategy appears to involve creating discord in the relationship between Greenland and Denmark, an incredibly easy task given the region’s complex history.

Prior to gaining autonomy following a referendum in 1979, Greenland spent a long time as a Danish colony. During that era, the Danish crown did not exactly cover itself in glory. One of the most controversial cases occurred in the 1960s when about 4,500 Greenlandic women were fitted with contraceptive coils without their consent in an effort to stop them from reproducing.

At other times, local children were relocated into Danish homes in an effort to erase their language and culture. While similar historical injustices occurred in Canada and the United States during the 20th century, these forced sterilizations remain a source of white-hot anger in Greenland, fueling a movement to have them officially recognized as a genocide. There is also festering resentment at the way Denmark has long treated Greenlanders as if they were children, incapable of making their own choices.

Current US influence operations appear designed to tap into that specific anger. DR reports that one of the American men was discussing similar historical cases with Greenlanders that could be used to put Denmark in a bad light in the American media. The strategic foundation for this approach lies in Greenland’s Self-Government Act of 2009.

This act gave Nuuk control of all its own affairs except foreign policy and defense, and crucially allowed Greenland to declare full independence at any point in the future, provided it is backed by a majority of citizens in a referendum. The apparent game plan is to use these real historical crimes perpetrated by Copenhagen as a wedge issue to ensure Greenland holds a referendum and votes for independence. The subsequent step would presumably be to make the newly independent Greenlanders an offer they cannot refuse: for their economically underdeveloped nation to join the United States, with all the benefits that would bring.

Geopolitical Implications and the Reality of US Military Access

There is a significant obstacle to this annexation strategy: Greenlanders as a whole are not highly interested in joining the United States. In one of the most recent polls on the independence issue, a majority stated they wanted to fully separate from Denmark at some point in the future. However, a mere six percent said they wanted to become part of the United States.

That equates to barely 3,400 people. The prevailing suspicion in Nuuk is that joining the US would simply mean trading one overlord for another, potentially resulting in a worse deal. Currently, Greenlanders are Danish citizens, granting them the right to live and work all over the European Union.

While Greenland itself is not in the EU, its citizens can freely move to nations like Germany. More importantly, Greenlanders are entitled to the same benefits as a regular Dane, including access to one of the most generous welfare states on the planet. This includes comprehensive healthcare, hefty pensions, childcare, and free tuition.

It is difficult to imagine Nuuk trading a life of well-designed furniture and free healthcare for one of big trucks and a broken health insurance system. From a strict realpolitik perspective, local sentiment might seem secondary to America’s need to control the island and its resources. However, the United States already possesses significant strategic leverage through an existing military agreement.

Since 1951, Washington has been permitted to build bases and deploy troops on Greenland as it sees fit. In the mid-20th century, this meant 17 bases or military installations housing thousands of troops. Although the US currently maintains only a single base, Pituffik, that is a choice made in Washington and one that could easily be reversed to deter Russia and China in the Arctic.

Furthermore, when Nuuk tried to attract Chinese mining companies in the 2010s, they faced immense logistical challenges and ultimately bowed to a US pressure campaign to restrict Chinese influence. Because the US already achieves its primary strategic goals without annexation, the constant talk of acquiring the territory threatens to blow apart a historically strong relationship with Denmark. A recent poll showed Danes now believe the US is a bigger threat than Iran or North Korea.

As former Danish prime minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen noted, the rhetoric surrounding the annexation is uncomfortably similar to that of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Danish intelligence has assessed that the situation has unfolded in a three-prong strategy. First came flattery towards the Greenlanders, typified by figures like Donald Trump Jr. visiting the island in January.

Second came pressure on Denmark, such as when JD Vance traveled to Pituffik to make a speech criticizing Copenhagen and urging Nuuk to cut ties. Currently, operations have entered a quieter stage of infiltration and influence campaigns, aiming to swing Greenlanders toward joining the United States. While the ultimate success of these efforts remains to be seen, elements within the current US government clearly remain focused on attempting to secure territorial control of Greenland.

Sources

1. https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/moerklagt/centrale-kilder-maend-med-forbindelser-til-trump-forsoeger-infiltrere
2. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0j9l08902eo
3. https://www.ft.com/content/78634e7c-6bfd-4749-aa69-a6e4ec43a155
4. https://www.wsj.com/world/greenland-spying-us-intelligence-809c4ef2
5. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/09/us-greenland-trump
6. https://www.inss.org.il/publication/greenland/
7. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/31/nearly-half-of-danes-see-us-as-threat-and-78-oppose-greenland-sale-poll-shows
8. https://www.dw.com/en/denmark-finalizes-us-defense-deal-despite-greenland-gripes/a-73210846
9. https://www.diis.dk/en/research/why-would-greenlanders-take-a-deal-from-trump-that-gives-them-less-than-they-already
10. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/greenland-not-sale-open-business