Pro-Assad Loyalists are Battling in Syria’s Steets. Here’s What’s Happening. Introduction. If, indeed, multiple thousands of pro-Assad fighters are out there in northern Syria, then they could keep up an asymmetric insurgency for months, or even years—/especially/ by seizing on support from an Alawite community that’s now experienced dozens of massacres at the hands of the same people these loyalists are trying to fight.
Key Developments
Three months after the downfall of Bashar al-Assad, the nation of Syria is once again on the brink of a civil war. Over the last several days, battles have raged all across the northern Syrian provinces of Latakia and Tartus, with the death toll, at the time of writing, now thought to have crested above one thousand. Loyalists to the old regime, and soldiers for the new, are engaged in a mass act of bloodletting in the Syrian streets, and according to international observers in the area, civilians aren’t just caught in the crossfire; they’re being hunted.
It’s a very tense situation on the ground, and it’s the ultimate test for a new Syrian leadership that’s promised peace, unity, and justice in the dictator’s wake. Things are moving fast, information is hazy, and the true extent of the damage isn’t yet known…but it’s abundantly clear that the next few days and weeks, will decide the future of this fragile nation. Syria hasn’t returned to civil war /yet/…but right now, nothing is certain.
Key Takeaways
- Three months after Assad’s fall, pro-loyalist fighters ambushed security forces in Jableh on March 6, killing sixteen police in what officials called a “well-planned and premeditated attack,” sparking days of mass violence in Latakia and Tartus.
- The death toll from the clashes crested above one thousand, with the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights documenting widespread civilian casualties alongside combatant deaths.
- Latakia and Tartus are the heartland of Syria’s minority Alawite community, which has deep historical ties to the Assad regime and an outsized share of former regime personnel, making the region a flashpoint for post-Assad tensions.
- Assad’s regime was linked to a “machinery of death” estimated to have tortured and murdered over a hundred thousand people, creating deep grievances that underpin the current cycle of reprisals.
- If thousands of pro-Assad fighters sustain an asymmetric insurgency by drawing on Alawite community support, the crisis could continue for months or years and represents a decisive test for Syria’s new leadership.
Strategic Implications
Let’s get into it. What Happened? Before we begin today’s episode, we’ve got to issue a quick caveat, as we do anytime we discuss an evolving situation here on WarFronts. The information we discuss in this episode is accurate through the very start of the day, 12:01 AM Monday morning, local time in the city of Damascus.
Anything that’s happened in Syria after that time, will not be covered here—although, if the situation changes dramatically by the time this comes out, you can rest assured that we’re probably prepping a follow-on episode to discuss. With that in mind, let’s begin. So, as for what happens next, the evolving situation in northern Syria seems to suggest that this crisis will be neither brief, nor easy to end. We’ve said it, here on WarFronts, since the days after Assad fell.
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Risk and Uncertainty
The current explosion of violence in northwest Syria began on Thursday, March the sixth, in the small city of Jableh on the Mediterranean coast. On that day, a group of loyalist fighters supporting the recently ousted regime of Bashar al-Assad staged an ambush, reportedly killing sixteen police personnel in what a security official from the region called a, quote, “well-planned and premeditated attack […]”. Said that same official, quoted by the DW: “[…] Several groups of Assad militia remnants attacked our positions and checkpoints, targeting many of our patrols in the Jableh area.”
Those loyalist forces reportedly fired on paramedics and civilians, as well as government forces, who had been attempting to detain a wanted person when they were attacked. Once the attack began, Syrian security forces responded rapidly, dispatching armed attack helicopters to strike back. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based observatory that’s regarded as among the best international sources on the ground in Syria, a total of forty-eight people were killed on Thursday, counting the dead from both sides.
Now, to understand what happened in the following days, we’ve got to understand a little bit about where this violence took place.
Outlook
Estimated at a pre-war population of about eighty thousand people, Jableh is part of Syria’s Latakia Governorate, and just north of the Tartus Governorate—two Syrian provinces where the country’s minority Alawite ethno-religious group actually makes up a majority of the local population. The Assad family, whose dynasty ruled Syria for over half a century until last December, are Alawites themselves, and the Assad regime spent decades fostering very close ties with the Alawite community. As a result, Latakia and Tartus—including cities like Jableh—have been perceived as strongholds for the regime or for regime support for a long time, and an outsize proportion of the sprawling Assad-era government were drawn from the Alawite community.
Now that Assad has been overthrown the situation between the Alawites and the rest of Syria—especially the Islamist leaders who’ve taken control in Damascus—has been very tense…and here, it’s important to emphasize two things. First, Alawites are not, and have never been uniformly loyal to Assad, but many within the minority are, and an outsize proportion of Alawites were involved with the nastiest parts of the Syrian regime. Those nastiest parts, would include the so-called “machinery of death” that one international war crimes prosecutor estimated, in December 2024, as being responsible for the torture and murder of over a hundred thousand people.
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Simon Whistler
Simon Whistler is one of YouTube's most prolific educational creators. WarFronts is his deep dive into military history and conflict analysis.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did the current violence in northwest Syria begin?
The violence began on March 6 in Jableh, a coastal city of about eighty thousand people in Syria’s Latakia Governorate, when pro-Assad loyalists staged an ambush that killed sixteen police personnel. Syrian security forces responded with armed attack helicopters, and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights recorded forty-eight dead on that first day alone.
Why are Latakia and Tartus the center of the conflict?
Latakia and Tartus are where Syria’s Alawite minority forms a majority of the local population. The Assad family are Alawites themselves, and the regime spent decades cultivating close ties with the community while drawing an outsized proportion of government personnel from it — making these provinces perceived strongholds of the old regime and a natural base for loyalist resistance.
What is the scale of casualties from the clashes?
By the time of writing, the death toll had crested above one thousand, with battles raging across the northern Syrian provinces of Latakia and Tartus. International observers reported that civilians were not merely caught in crossfire but were being actively hunted, making this one of the deadliest episodes since Assad’s fall in December 2024.
What is the risk of a prolonged insurgency?
If the estimated thousands of pro-Assad fighters in northern Syria sustain their campaign, they could mount an asymmetric insurgency for months or even years, particularly by drawing on support from Alawite communities that have experienced dozens of massacres during the recent violence. Syria’s new leadership, which has pledged peace and unity, faces this as its ultimate test of governing authority.
What is the Assad regime’s legacy that shapes current tensions?
The Assad dynasty ruled Syria for over half a century and was linked by an international war crimes prosecutor to a “machinery of death” responsible for the torture and murder of over a hundred thousand people. That legacy of extreme violence and sectarian favoritism toward the Alawite community has created the deep mutual grievances now driving the cycle of loyalist attacks and security-force reprisals.
Sources
- https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syrian-mass-graves-expose-machinery-death-under-assad-top-prosecutor-says-2024-12-17/
- https://www.dw.com/en/syria-sees-worst-day-of-violence-since-ouster-of-assad/a-71852125
- https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20250306-deadly-clashes-erupt-between-syrian-forces-and-remnants-of-assad-s-militias
- https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-13-members-syrian-security-forces-killed-clashes-with-militants-linked-2025-03-06/
- https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/world/middleeast/syria-clashes-assad.html
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/06/thirteen-syrian-security-officers-killed-in-clashes-with-assad-loyalists
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/09/more-than-1000-people-killed-in-two-days-of-clashes-in-syria-war-monitor-says
- https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hundreds-killed-syrian-crackdown-alawite-region-war-monitor-says-2025-03-08/
- https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/08/world/middleeast/syria-clashes-assad.html
- https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-imposes-curfew-latakia-tartous-after-clashes-2025-03-07/
- https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrxkm2evnlo
- https://apnews.com/article/latakia-syria-clashes-assad-loyalists-alawites-ef7496972e037db8e90c77a5f498d721
- https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/assad-loyalists-kill-13-police-officers-ambush-syrian-119518242
- https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20250308-more-than-300-alawite-civilians-killed-syria-security-forces-allies-since-thursday-monitor-says
- https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/hundreds-civilians-killed-syria-what-we-know-rcna195515
- https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250205-syria-s-alawites-mourn-their-dead-after-revenge-attacks
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/16/constant-fear-alawites-syria-homs-terrified-reprisals
- https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crknjgrd3geo
- https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250309-roads-full-of-corpses-terrified-alawites-in-syria-flee-attacks
- https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/clashes-in-syrias-coastal-region-between-assad-loyalists-and-government-forces-kill-more-than-70
- https://abcnews.go.com/International/hundreds-civilians-reported-killed-massacres-violence-syria-spirals/story?id=119579716
- https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syrias-sharaa-says-developments-within-expected-challenges-clashes-continue-arab-2025-03-09/
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