China’s Air Force is Broken. Introduction. The Chinese Air Force is among the most powerful on planet Earth. There are limited exceptions here, for Chinese-made aircraft in service with other militaries around the world, and we’ll talk through those exceptions shortly, but even those aren’t aircraft in service with the Chinese Air Force; they’re just aircraft that China designed and then shipped off.
Key Developments
Flying some three thousand highly potent fighters and bombers, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force is the undisputed king of the skies across Asia, with the technology, the pilots, and the payloads to deliver some serious hurt against any adversary that would dare cross its path. On the numbers, it’s second only to the United States of America, while its highly advanced stealth jets, and its growing list of next-generation fighters, grant China the right to claim that it’s America’s equal on the global stage. So, it must be a point of some frustration inside the highest ranks of the CCP, that China’s air force is also utterly broken.
Despite its capabilities on paper, despite the sheer volume of combat aircraft at its disposal, the reality of the Chinese Air Force isn’t nearly as formidable as it seems. It’s hobbled by inefficiency and inexperience, it’s unbalanced and reliant on unproven technology, and it may not even be properly equipped for an invasion of Taiwan. Put aside the hype, the breathless optimism, and the propaganda, and there’s a long list of reasons to suspect that in reality, China’s air force is little more than a paper tiger.
Key Takeaways
- Despite fielding roughly 3,000 combat aircraft and boasting the J-20 stealth fighter, China’s PLAAF is hamstrung by engine shortfalls, inexperienced pilots, and what the PLA’s own newspaper calls “peace disease.”
- The J-20’s intended engine, the WS-15, remains unready two decades after its first testbed ignition, forcing the aircraft to operate with less capable interim powerplants.
- China’s roughly 1,000 Su-27 derivatives and 600+ J-10 fighters carry small payloads relative to peer competitors, and most pilots have zero combat experience.
- China’s strategic airlift capacity is severely limited, calling into question its ability to sustain large-scale operations — including a potential invasion of Taiwan.
- China’s recent military purges and documented corruption within the PLAAF add a further layer of institutional unreliability to an already unproven force.
Western casualty counts from the war count somewhere between fifty and sixty thousand people killed, but for our purposes, it matters less what the outcome of the fighting was, and more, because of who, and what, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army was flying. Discussing the entire military’s capabilities, even the official newspaper of the People’s Liberation Army has called out this problem directly, referring to it as, quote, “peace disease”—but nowhere does the rot and atrophy of peace disease matter more, than it does for China’s air force. Before Chang stepped up, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force was under the command of Ding Laihang, who spent a bit over four years in charge.
More than likely, the first large-scale war that China fights in the 21st century will be over the island of Taiwan, where the Chinese Air Force will be going head-to-head with far more experienced pilots from the United States, flying their own highly sophisticated stealth jets.
Strategic Implications
So, here’s what China has in its arsenal…and here’s where that arsenal falls apart. By the Numbers. In life, two things can be true at once, and while we’re going to dive deep, in today’s episode, on the weaknesses and vulnerabilities of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, we’ve got to begin by emphasizing that even though China’s air force is flawed, it certainly isn’t weak, by any fair metric.
Both in the sheer size of its air wing, and on the technological merits, China does boast the air force of a global superpower, so, before we get into the myriad problems with the force, let’s take stock of its overall military might. The backbone of Chinese military aviation, and by far the most impressive mass-produced aircraft in China’s arsenal, is the Chengdu J-20, the Mighty Dragon. A stealth fighter that got its first taste of proper military service in 2017, the J-20 has been rolling off Chinese production lines at stunning rates, with somewhere at or above three hundred copies of the jet in active service today.
And when it comes to strategic airlift, China practically falls apart. It’s in this same way, that China has already been able to build its air force into a potent tool of deterrence—and if China’s recent unveiling of new, mysterious aircraft, its over-focus on stealthy combat jets, and its emphasis on combat over logistics are any indication, then building a tool of deterrence has been China’s objective this whole time. If China can hold the vague threat of sixth-generation fighter aircraft over its adversaries’ heads, or threaten with a strategic bomber fleet that could, in the right circumstances, break through and lay waste to an enemy target, then the question, for an America, a Japan, a South Korea, or another of China’s powerful adversaries, isn’t whether they’d ultimately win a knock-down, drag-out contest.
China’s iron grip over rare Earth mines in Myanmar, its progressive absorption of Hong Kong, its growing alliance with Pakistan against India, its islands-building and intimidation operations in the South China Sea, and its many Belt and Road initiatives all across the world, do matter to China’s adversaries.
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Risk and Uncertainty
A twin-engine, all-weather air superiority fighter, the J-20 is a stealth fighter, the second-most-common in the world behind America’s F-35. It’s reportedly quite well-armed, with an impressive payload capacity, a substantial combat range, and advanced avionics on par with the best in the world. Although it’s China’s premier stealth fighter, it’s no longer China’s only jet of this type; recently, Beijing has been preparing its Shenyang J-35 for service, with a handful of J-35s believed to be in circulation at this time.
Once it goes into full-scale production, the J-35 is expected to serve both as a land-based version, and a catapult-assisted carrier jet. Externally, the J-35 is quite similar to America’s F-35, and it’s expected to export out to Russia and Pakistan’s air forces, at a minimum. Backing up the J-35 and the J-10 are a whole suite of non-stealthy fourth-generation fighter jets, with most of those jets built around the core design of the Russian-made Sukhoi Su-27.
China’s J-10C, the most potent non-stealth aircraft in its airfleet, is fitted with the unreliable WS-10—an engine that’s known to need frequent maintenance, and even to be swapped out occasionally, which really isn’t what you’d want in a single-engine fighter. Most of China’s fighter aircraft, as well as its H-6 bombers, carry relatively small payloads compared to similar aircraft in the arsenals of other nations, and its most important fighter, the J-20, is among the most underwhelming in that regard. Despite the J-20 being intended as a high-performance fighter, China’s engine designers haven’t been able to keep up, with the intended engine for the J-20, the WS-15, still not ready two decades after it first ignited on the testbed.
The most glaring problem for the J-20 stealth fighter is a problem for quite a few of China’s combat jets: Its engines. Rounding out its combat arsenal are a range of unmanned drones, including both strike drones similar to the American-made Predator and Reaper, and a second class of drones that’s a bit more unique: Refitted Cold War-era jet fighters, meant to provide expendable fighter jet swarms and decoys during a potential invasion of Taiwan. China is also known to be flying at least two advanced prototypes of unclear nature, possibly piloted or possibly drones, as well as a stealth bomber known as the H-20, which may, or may not, have been an aircraft spotted flying at high altitudes by civilian photographers on the ground in China this year.
Outlook
First introduced to Soviet service back in 1985, the Su-27 was initially intended as an air-to-air interceptor rivaling the American F-15 Eagle, although a number of variants have since gone into service. Between the base Su-27, the multirole Su-30 improvement, the air-superiority-focused Su-35, and three specialized Chinese-built variants, the J-11 Yinglong, the carrier-capable J-15 Flying Shark, and the J-16 Qianlong. All told, China is estimated to possess roughly a thousand copies of the jets.
That includes about four hundred copies of the J-16 specifically, a variant fitted out with advanced avionics technology and equipped to carry the best Chinese-built munitions. No matter the variant, aircraft of the Su-27 line are known for their impressive top speed, their ability to operate at long range, and their ability to pack a punch on at least ten external pylons. Besides its roughly one thousand Su-27 derivatives, China flies over six hundred copies of the indigenously designed and developed multirole fighter, the J-10 Vigorous Dragon.
In fact, China wasn’t flying anything during that conflict, at least not by way of combat air support for its ground troops, and the people who were part of China’s air force back then, have long since aged out of service; in fact, many of them have now died. Although it’s been a while since American pilots were dogfighting with enemy aircraft, many of the nation’s pilots have at least flown into active conflict zones—which is far more than can be said for their likely Chinese adversaries. Although it hasn’t been formally acknowledged by Beijing, it’s believed to be a prototype sixth-generation fighter, a designation that, if true, would mean that China has a shot at being the first nation to put a sixth-gen aircraft into mainline service.
Although the H-6 is based on the old Soviet Tu-16, an aircraft that first flew in 1952 and was retired in Russia in the early 2000s, today’s H-6 aircraft are substantially more advanced than their dated airframes would suggest. China also flies about 120 smaller tactical airlifters, and, if you’re really counting everything they’ve got, they also fly about a hundred Soviet-era biplanes, first developed all the way back in the 1940s.
Simon Whistler
Simon Whistler is one of YouTube's most prolific educational creators. WarFronts is his deep dive into military history and conflict analysis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is “peace disease” and why does it matter for China’s air force?
“Peace disease” is a term used by the PLA’s own official newspaper to describe the rot and atrophy that comes from decades without combat. It refers to institutional complacency, lack of real-world experience, and inflated confidence. The article argues it is most damaging in the PLAAF because air combat puts an extreme premium on experience that cannot be replicated in training.
What is wrong with the J-20’s engines?
The J-20 was intended to fly with the indigenous WS-15 engine, but that powerplant has been in development for over two decades and is still not ready for mainline service. In the meantime, the aircraft has been fielded with less capable interim engines, limiting its performance and undermining its status as a true peer to the American F-35.
How experienced are China’s fighter pilots compared to their likely adversaries?
China’s air force has not engaged in real aerial combat in modern history. American pilots, by contrast, have routinely deployed into active conflict zones, providing genuine operational experience. This experience gap is considered one of the most significant structural weaknesses of the PLAAF, especially since China’s most likely adversaries — the US, Japan, and South Korea — all have far more combat-seasoned air arms.
What is the J-35 and how does it fit into China’s air strategy?
The J-35 is China’s second stealth fighter, currently in limited circulation and expected to enter full-scale production. It is designed to serve both as a land-based jet and as a catapult-assisted carrier aircraft, making it the likely export model for countries like Russia and Pakistan. Externally it resembles the American F-35, though its actual capabilities remain disputed.
Why does China’s airlift weakness matter for a potential Taiwan invasion?
China has invested heavily in combat jets but has neglected strategic airlift, and that imbalance becomes critical if China needs to sustain a large-scale amphibious operation across the Taiwan Strait. Without the ability to move troops, equipment, and supplies at scale and speed, even a formidable combat air fleet would struggle to support and exploit initial gains against a well-defended island defended by US and allied air power.
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