Countries at Risk of Gen-Z Revolution: Where Youth Uprisings May Strike Next

A wave of youth-led protests has swept across the Global South throughout the year, toppling governments in countries like Nepal and Madagascar while shaking the foundations of power in Kenya, Indonesia, and Morocco. These uprisings, driven predominantly by Generation Z, share a common DNA: deep-seated frustration with corruption, economic stagnation, and governments that prioritize maintaining power over addressing the needs of their young populations. Armed with smartphones, encrypted messaging apps, and social media platforms, this digitally native generation has coordinated protests in ways previous movements could never have imagined, even adopting symbols from popular culture—most notably the flag from the anime One Piece—as rallying cries for resistance. While each protest begins with a local spark, the underlying kindling remains remarkably similar across nations, raising urgent questions about where these uprisings might spread next and whether they can achieve lasting structural change.

The Anatomy of a Gen-Z Spring

The protests sweeping continents have earned the moniker “Gen-Z Spring” due to their shared characteristics and the demographic driving them. At the core of these movements lies a profound sense of betrayal felt by young people who constitute the bulk of populations in affected countries. In Kenya, Nepal, and Morocco, youth have inherited nations plagued by corruption, economic stagnation, and joblessness under leaders seemingly more interested in preserving the status quo than addressing their constituents’ needs. The promise of democracy rings hollow for a generation that has matured under the shadow of endless corruption scandals, watching leaders enrich themselves and their families while social services crumble and ordinary citizens struggle for opportunities.

The second defining element is the internet itself. As the first generation to grow up with the internet as an integral part of daily life, Gen Z are what might be described as terminally online. This digital nativity has enabled coordination methods previous generations could never have imagined.

Protesters share viral images comparing politicians’ luxury vehicles to dilapidated public hospitals as rallying cries against the elite. They use encrypted messaging applications as digital command centers and leverage social platforms like TikTok and X as broadcast stations to amplify their message and coordinate action across vast distances.

The internet has also facilitated the sharing of ideas and symbols across borders, with nothing exemplifying this better than the spread of the flag from the anime One Piece. This symbol has traveled from truckers in Indonesia to protesters worldwide, becoming synonymous with the demonstrations. The flag and the anime as a whole are now recognized by youth globally as emblems of Gen-Z resistance. Even the phrase “drums of liberation” that has become associated with these movements is itself a reference to One Piece, demonstrating how deeply popular culture has intertwined with political activism.

Despite these commonalities, the protests remain deeply local in character, typically ignited by sparks unique to each country. In Kenya, the catalyst was a punitive finance bill that would have dramatically increased the cost of living. Nepal’s government attempt to ban social media provided the flashpoint there. In Indonesia, it was the exorbitant perks parliamentarians had awarded themselves.

Each spark differs, but the kindling—the underlying conditions of corruption, economic frustration, and youth disenfranchisement—remains consistent across nations.

Madagascar: A Revolution at Risk of Being Hijacked

Madagascar represents a country where protests have already succeeded in toppling a government, yet the embers remain dangerously hot due to fears that the victory may prove short-lived or that renewed government overreach could send youth back into the streets. The Mutiny of young Malagasy recently managed to oust the long-serving government of President Andry Rajoelina. In the power vacuum that followed, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, commander of the elite CAPSAT unit that had helped Rajoelina seize power in 2009, assumed control as president and head of state.

Initially, it appeared the protesters had achieved their objectives. Randrianirina presented himself as a servant of the people, with the BBC describing him as exuding charm, hospitality, and confidence without arrogance—qualities important for a nation exhausted by a political class that had been shameless about enriching itself. Malagasy journalist Rivonala Razafison characterized Randrianirina as “simple but tough, straightforward and patriotic,” further bolstering hopes for genuine change.

Then came the appointment that shattered this optimism. On Monday, October 20th, Randrianirina appointed Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo, an economist who previously worked with the World Bank and the African Development Bank, as the country’s new prime minister. While announcing the decision, Randrianirina pointed to Rajaonarivelo’s extensive experience and “connections with the international organizations that work with us” as justification for the choice.

The move blindsided the youth who had risked their lives for change. They perceived it as a betrayal of what they had fought for because Randrianirina had made this decision unilaterally, without consulting the protesters who had brought him to power. In a statement posted on Facebook, they declared that the appointment was made in a non-transparent manner and was contrary to the desired structural change they wanted to see in the country.

While they have not yet issued calls for renewed protests, their message carries an unmistakable warning. As they stated: “Our revolution will not be hijacked. The Malagasy youth are watching and mobilising.” If the new government fails to heed these warnings, they may find themselves confronting the same kinds of protests they once sided with to remove the former president. The youth have demonstrated their willingness and ability to take to the streets, and they now possess a blueprint for success.

For Randrianirina, this presents a unique and dangerous risk. Another military figure might exploit popular discontent as an opportunity to oust him, following a pattern seen recently in Burkina Faso. There, Paul-Henri Damiba overthrew President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré’s government before himself being overthrown by Ibrahim Traore. If this pattern repeats in Madagascar, the cycle of instability that has marked the country’s political history could easily continue.

Historical precedent offers few examples of countries undergoing two revolutions or coups in quick succession and emerging more stable as a result.

Kenya: Fragile Stability After Raila’s Death

Some 2,300 kilometers away in Kenya, while the situation is not as immediately precarious as Madagascar’s, the country remains on edge. After the 2024 protests nearly toppled President Ruto’s government, Kenya’s leader responded by forming what he called a broad-based government—a coalition-type arrangement that saw him invite the country’s leading opposition figure Raila Odinga and his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party into government. The deal worked in the short term, stabilizing Ruto’s administration and providing the embattled president with crucial breathing room.

Then, on October 15th, Raila Odinga died. The immediate aftermath of his death sent ripples through Kenya’s political landscape that continue to spread. The most significant concern is that without Raila, the broad-based government, which always stood on shaky ground, will collapse. The arrangement was fundamentally built around Raila’s personal authority and his ability to bring ODM supporters along with his decision to cooperate with Ruto.

Cracks have already begun to show in the coalition’s foundation. Some within ODM believe that a deal with Ruto is untenable, pointing to incidents like the killing of four people during the viewing of Raila’s body at Kasarani Stadium as proof that the government has not changed its approach to dissent. Without ODM’s participation and the legitimacy it provided, the broad-based government will struggle to placate the next wave of protests should they emerge.

And there are concrete reasons to believe protests might emerge, centered on what Kenyans view as the latest attempt at government overreach. On the same day Raila died, President Ruto signed the Computer Misuse and Cybercrimes (Amendment) Act into law. The amendment grants the government broader authority over online activity by redefining offences like cyber harassment while allowing officials to block websites or applications if they promote unlawful activities.

While the government has defended the amendment vigorously—with Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo describing it as a progressive move meant to safeguard cyberspace—critics see things very differently. They point to past applications of the law and specific language within the amendment as evidence that it is designed to stifle free speech and political organization. The law is currently suspended following a High Court ruling, but if it survives judicial review, it will hand the government the tools to shut down the very platforms Gen Z used to organize in 2024 and, to a lesser extent, in summer of 2025.

For Kenya’s digitally savvy youth, such a law would likely feel like a massive provocation—the sort of provocation that could send them back onto the streets in an attempt to finish what they started. The combination of a weakened coalition government, unresolved grievances from previous protests, and new restrictions on the tools of organization creates a volatile mixture that could ignite with the right spark.

Nigeria: A Colossus on the Brink

Madagascar and Kenya are not the only African countries at risk of a Gen-Z uprising. On the other side of the continent, another contender looms—a colossus often seen as key to Africa’s future: Nigeria. According to Elika Dadsetan, Executive Director of Visions Inc, a nonprofit rooted in clinical and organizational psychology, Nigeria is next in line for a Gen Z wave. Speaking exclusively to WarFronts, she identified the same issues highlighted across other at-risk nations: a large population of digitally savvy young people, angry that their government has failed them.

Like other countries on this list, Nigeria has a long history of large youth-led protest movements. The most recent significant mobilization occurred in 2020 when thousands of young Nigerians organized against the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS). SARS was a special unit within the Nigerian police force created to deal with robberies that had gained a notorious reputation for violence and brutality. An Amnesty International report documented 82 cases of torture and abuse by SARS between 2017 and 2020, revealing a pattern of systematic human rights violations.

While SARS was eventually disbanded in the wake of these protests and its officers redeployed to other units, according to Amnesty International, police brutality remains a major issue in the country. The lack of meaningful reform has left the underlying problems unaddressed. October 20th marked five years since the 2020 protests, and victims are still struggling to seek justice. Anietie Ewang, a Nigeria researcher at Human Rights Watch, told Al Jazeera: “What we see is a lot of lip service (…) but nothing after that initial period.”

According to Elika, this lack of accountability and the fact that the police service has not undergone any structural reform to eliminate violence could prove to be the ignition point for future demonstrations. The unresolved grievances from 2020 remain fresh in the minds of young Nigerians, creating a reservoir of frustration that could be tapped by future organizing efforts.

There is also the economy to consider. Although Abuja has made significant progress in stabilizing its economy through recent policy reforms, the cost of living recently hit an all-time high. According to the International Labour Organization, youth unemployment currently sits at 6.5%. This matters because if the people on the ground cannot feel the economic improvement that the government is touting, it usually leads to uncomfortable questions about economic disparity and who is actually benefiting from growth.

This disconnect is particularly significant in a nation like Nigeria, where 58% of the population is under the age of 30. If the positive impacts of reforms are not trickling down to over half the population, then the government may have a serious problem. Young Nigerians see economic statistics improving while their personal circumstances stagnate or worsen, creating a sense that the system is rigged against them and in favor of an entrenched elite. This combination of unresolved police brutality issues, lack of accountability, and economic frustration despite official progress creates conditions remarkably similar to those that preceded uprisings in other countries.

India: The Fragmented Giant

It is not only African nations that should be concerned about potential Gen-Z uprisings. There is plenty of potential for unrest in Asia as well, with India presenting a particularly complex case. In conversations with WarFronts, Elika also identified India as a possible future victim of the Gen Z spring, and with good reason.

India’s Gen Z population is one of the largest in the world, at more than 370 million people—larger than the entire U.S. population. India suffers from the same structural issues as the other countries included on this list: high youth unemployment, economic growth that does not translate into opportunities for young people, and a sense of betrayal by the political system.

While India is the fastest growing major economy and expected to hold that position for the foreseeable future, the youth unemployment rate currently sits at 14.6%—nearly three times higher than the average unemployment rate of 5.1%. This means that out of all the people in India currently unemployed, a significant proportion is made up of youth in the Gen-Z cohort. The scale of this problem cannot be overstated: with 370 million Gen Z individuals, even a 14.6% unemployment rate represents tens of millions of frustrated young people without economic prospects.

Their frustration is palpable and well-documented. In a survey conducted before India’s recent general election, 62% of respondents said that finding a job had become harder compared with five years ago. Indian economist Jayati Ghosh has described the situation as a crisis waiting to explode, citing the same issue identified in Nigeria: a jobless growth economy where GDP increases but ordinary people do not feel the effects. The disconnect between macroeconomic indicators and lived experience creates a sense that the economic system is fundamentally broken for young people.

Violent protests triggered by these high levels of unemployment have already occurred. In 2022, more than 12 million people applied for a mere 35,000 job openings in the government-run rail sector—a ratio that starkly illustrates the desperation for stable employment. Accusations of an opaque recruitment process led to violent protests where demonstrators burnt train cars and blocked rail traffic in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, two of India’s most populous states. These incidents demonstrate that the frustration exists and can boil over into direct action.

Yet despite these conditions, if Gen Z protests occur in India, they are unlikely to be as explosive or nationally unified as those in the other countries listed. One reason is that India’s Gen Z is fragmented, and so far there has not been a single unifying incident to harness their frustration into a coordinated national movement. Vipul Kumar, a journalist from Bihar, told the BBC: “I don’t see a single force uniting us. Power in India is much more decentralised than in Nepal, and so is the anger of its youth.”

The main reason for this fragmentation is that in India, youth are divided by their religious, linguistic, and caste identities, making it difficult for them to have shared experiences that transcend these divisions. Sudhanshu Kaushik, President and CEO of the Centre for Youth Policy, articulated this challenge: “If a Gen Z uprising occurs in India, would it be of the Dalit Gen Z, urban or Tamil-speaking? The truth is that there are far too diverse Gen Z communities with different intersecting interests.”

This fragmentation means that protests often remain regional because the grievances feel regional rather than national. Consider the recent protests in Ladakh as an illustrative example. Despite having all the ingredients necessary for a protest to capture a nation’s attention—high unemployment, a charismatic leader, and a heavy-handed government response—they remained isolated in Ladakh and failed to spark solidarity movements elsewhere in the country.

This fragmentation has so far protected the Indian government from facing a unified youth uprising. However, that does not mean the state is immune to such movements. Given that the structural issues already exist across the country, India’s Gen Z simply needs one unifying spark—an incident or grievance that transcends regional, religious, linguistic, and caste divisions—before protests could potentially stretch from Mumbai to Kolkata and encompass the full breadth of the nation’s youth population.

The Challenge of Building After Destruction

Throughout this analysis, an important question has been deliberately saved for last: will these protests solve their nations’ underlying structural issues? The uncomfortable answer is that they probably will not on their own, and understanding why requires examining what happens after the initial victory.

This reality can be illustrated by contrasting two countries that had nearly similar outcomes in their protests: Nepal and Madagascar. In both countries, youth recently managed to oust unpopular governments through sustained protest movements. But while in Madagascar the army took over and installed a military leader, in Nepal a transitional government is quietly working to fix the issues that led to the protests while simultaneously preparing the country for a general election next year.

The difference in outcomes stems from preparation and planning. In Nepal, the youth quickly rallied around Sushila Karki and proposed her as the nation’s interim Prime Minister, demonstrating that they had thought beyond simply removing the existing government. In Madagascar, there is no evidence that the youth had any concrete plans for a transitional government beyond the removal of Andry Rajoelina. They knew what they were against but had not developed a clear vision of what they were for.

This difference matters profoundly because it highlights a fundamental truth about youth-led protests: they are extraordinarily effective at tearing down the old order but far less successful at building something new in its place. The skills, tactics, and organization required to mobilize thousands of people to take to the streets are fundamentally different from those needed to govern, to reform institutions, to address systemic corruption, and to create economic opportunities. Protest movements excel at disruption and destruction; they struggle with construction and governance.

Without learning how to build something new, youth movements will struggle to find solutions to the issues that took them to the streets in the first place. The problems they are protesting—corruption, economic stagnation, lack of opportunity, police brutality—are deeply embedded in institutional structures that have developed over decades. Removing a particular leader or government does not automatically dismantle these structures or create new, better ones.

As protesters struggle to find solutions and implement lasting change, two outcomes typically emerge, neither ideal for those who risked their lives demanding transformation. First, the old guard can rally around the status quo, as seen in Kenya and Indonesia. In these cases, initial concessions are made to calm the streets, but the fundamental power structures remain intact. New faces may appear in government, but the underlying systems of patronage, corruption, and elite privilege continue largely unchanged.

The protesters achieve symbolic victories but little substantive reform.

Alternatively, the military can take over and install their own people in charge, as seen in Madagascar. Military intervention may initially appear to side with protesters against a corrupt civilian government, but it typically results in a new form of authoritarian rule rather than the democratic accountability protesters sought. The military has its own institutional interests that rarely align with genuine democratic reform or youth empowerment.

Neither outcome represents what protesters are actually fighting for. Neither delivers the structural change, accountability, economic opportunity, and responsive governance that drives young people into the streets. This gap between protest success and governance success represents the central challenge facing Gen-Z movements across the Global South.

As observers watch the internet to see where else the One Piece jolly roger will appear as a symbol of youth resistance, there is hope that those flying it have learned from other protests around the world. Leading a nation and fixing decades worth of structural issues requires more than just mobilizing people to go to the streets, as important as that initial step is. It requires a comprehensive plan for the days, weeks, and months after the protests succeed in their immediate goal of removing a government or forcing policy changes.

This plan must include identifying credible transitional leadership, developing specific policy reforms to address the grievances that sparked protests, creating mechanisms for accountability to ensure new leaders do not simply replicate old patterns, and building coalitions broad enough to govern effectively while maintaining the energy and idealism of the protest movement. Without such planning, even successful protests risk becoming just another chapter in a cycle of instability rather than the transformative moment their participants hope to create.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Gen-Z Spring?

The Gen-Z Spring refers to a wave of youth-led protests sweeping across the Global South, characterized by digitally native young people using social media and encrypted messaging to coordinate demonstrations against corruption, economic stagnation, and government failures. These movements share common symbols like the One Piece flag and similar grievances despite occurring in different countries.

Why is Madagascar at risk of renewed protests?

After successfully ousting President Rajoelina, Madagascar’s youth feel betrayed because the new military leader, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, unilaterally appointed a prime minister without consulting the protesters. They view this as contrary to the structural change they fought for and have warned that their revolution will not be hijacked, threatening to mobilize again if necessary.

What makes Nigeria vulnerable to Gen-Z protests?

Nigeria faces risk due to unresolved police brutality issues from the 2020 SARS protests, lack of accountability and structural reform in the police service, and a cost-of-living crisis despite economic improvements. With 58% of the population under 30 and youth unemployment at 6.5%, young Nigerians feel economic gains are not trickling down to them.

Why hasn’t India experienced explosive Gen-Z protests despite high youth unemployment?

India’s Gen-Z population of 370 million is fragmented by religious, linguistic, and caste identities, making unified national protests difficult. While youth unemployment sits at 14.6% (three times the national average) and frustration is high, protests tend to remain regional because grievances feel localized rather than national. India would need a single unifying spark to trigger nationwide demonstrations.

Why do Gen-Z protests struggle to achieve lasting change?

While Gen-Z protests excel at dismantling old orders through effective mobilization and coordination, they struggle to build sustainable new systems. Without comprehensive post-protest planning and transitional governance structures, movements often result in either the old guard rallying around the status quo or military takeovers, neither of which delivers the structural change protesters seek.

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