Iran's New Supreme Leader: Mojtaba Khamenei and the War's Second Week

Fire, and fire everywhere. Those were the scenes in Tehran on a Saturday night following an Israeli Defense Forces attack that targeted 30 fuel depots and other areas the IDF claimed were affiliated with the Iranian armed forces. In video shared with the outlet Iran International, oil depots burned in three corners of the city, with flames visible to the west, east, and south of the capital. The resulting fires were so bright that one resident told the BBC it was as if night had turned into day.

Then came the rain. Black clouds of toxic smoke gathered over Tehran, and rain saturated with what appeared to be oil fell on the city. Residents reported difficulty breathing, and the Iranian Red Crescent Society warned that the rain could be contaminated with toxic compounds that cause acid rain and carry the potential to inflict chemical burns and lung damage.

It was not only Tehran that burned over that weekend in early March 2026. Flames ravaged a Kuwaiti government building in the early hours of a Sunday following an Iranian drone strike. And in Israel, while the nation was not on fire, six people were injured, one of them seriously, after an Iranian ballistic missile attack that apparently used a cluster warhead struck on a Sunday afternoon.

These were the opening scenes of the second week of the war between Iran, Israel, and the United States—a war that, for the moment, shows no end in sight. The thesis of this second week is plain: as Iran installs a more hardline Supreme Leader and the fighting spreads from missile factories to the water systems of the Gulf, a conflict already entangling Washington and Jerusalem is hardening rather than winding down.

Infighting, Succession, and a Contested Apology

On the first day of the war, the biggest story was the death of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the war’s opening salvo. At the start of the second week, the biggest story is the appointment of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as his successor. The question of succession had become a particularly contested issue within Tehran over the preceding days, with the infighting even spilling over onto social media—one cleric apparently created a fan page for Mojtaba on the Iranian messaging app Eitaa that was eventually taken down.

According to Iranian democracy activist Mehdi Yahyanejad, the infighting created a seemingly irreparable divide between the political and military factions within Tehran, increasing the likelihood that a hardline figure would be chosen to bring both sides under the same umbrella. That logic helps explain the outcome.

Vali R. Nasr, an expert on Iran at Johns Hopkins University, told the New York Times that Mojtaba fit the bill because, of all the candidates, he was the most ready to quickly consolidate power and assert control over the system.

Why the Assembly of Experts Chose Mojtaba

This is the most likely reason the Assembly of Experts—an 88-member clerical body elected by the public every eight years—chose Mojtaba as the next Supreme Leader. The choice came despite the fact that, according to the Times, the late Ayatollah had indicated to close advisers that he did not want his son to succeed him because he did not want the role to become hereditary.

In its analysis, the Times noted that Mojtaba’s ascension suggests Iran’s circles of power—the senior clerics, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and influential politicians such as Ali Larijani, head of the National Security Council—had closed ranks at a time of acute crisis. Mojtaba is widely expected to be a hardline figure even by the standards of ayatollahs, not only because of his close ties to the IRGC but also because his mother, wife, and one of his sisters were killed in the strike that killed his father.

News of the younger Khamenei’s ascension was greeted with jubilation among regime supporters in Tehran, who in one video were recorded chanting, “God is great, Khamenei is the leader.”

A Successor Who May Not Survive to Rule

Beyond the issue of selection, there is the question of whether Mojtaba will even survive long enough to rule. The IDF warned that it would target Khamenei’s successor, and President Donald Trump said that the next Supreme Leader needed to get approval—otherwise, he warned, the new leader would not last very long. Regardless of these threats, it appears that Mojtaba will be Iran’s next Supreme Leader.

His selection happened at a particularly sensitive time for Tehran because of President Masoud Pezeshkian’s apology to Iran’s neighbors for recent strikes against them. Given that apologies between states are rare, and apologies during wartime are an even rarer event, Pezeshkian’s apology—and his wording—stood out. In his words: “I deem it necessary to apologize to neighboring countries that were attacked.

We do not intend to invade neighboring countries.” He also said that Iranian forces would not attack any country unless it was used as a staging ground for attacks on Iran, blaming past attacks on the “fire at will” policy that the army had been operating under.

According to several analysts, the apology was an attempt to contain the widening regional fallout and avoid a broader regional conflict.

The Apology Walked Back

While analysts were trying to work out the possible motives behind the message, Tehran was angry it had gotten out in the first place. In one of the most open criticisms of Pezeshkian, and a sign of the growing divisions within the ruling class, hardline cleric and lawmaker Hamid Rasai called the apology unprofessional, weak, and unacceptable. Another lawmaker, Mohammad Manan Raeisi, described the remarks as humiliating. Even Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, a cleric who serves alongside the president in a three-man transitional leadership council, openly criticized and contradicted him, saying the attacks would continue.

Hours later, after facing intense criticism, President Pezeshkian issued another statement asserting that Iran had not attacked its neighboring countries—and omitting any apology at all. Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, told the New York Times that this was a sign of Pezeshkian’s powerlessness within a military-dominated system.

More broadly, the back-and-forth between the reformist president and the hardliners in the government represents one of the most important challenges Mojtaba will face in his new role: balancing between the moderates and the hardliners.

A Claim That Could Damage the Regime

Away from the politics of factions and succession, a separate claim demands scrutiny. Ali Larijani alleged that several American soldiers had been captured but that Washington had reported them as killed in action to conceal the incident. US Central Command denied the claim, calling it another example of Iranian lies and deception.

This is a significant allegation, and if it ends up being false—which it so far appears to be—it would not only dent Larijani’s credibility but that of the entire regime. For a ruling class that is already deeply unpopular, losing what little trust remains with both domestic and international audiences could prove more dangerous than any military setback.

On the Battlefield: Missile Factories and a Half-Billion-Dollar Radar

On a Sunday, the IDF attacked Iran’s Aerospace Headquarters, which had been used for launching satellites including the 2022 launch of the Khayyam satellite aboard a Russian rocket. According to the Jerusalem Post, the site and Iran’s growing space cooperation were viewed as a serious national security and intelligence concern for Israel and the West. Israel was particularly concerned that space cooperation between Moscow and Tehran would increase Iran’s capability to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles, as well as reduce Israeli spies’ ability to penetrate the Islamic Republic’s borders. The Post also reported fears that Iran could incorporate the satellites into a future nuclear weapons program to develop a weapon capable of hitting the US mainland.

Israel also targeted what the IDF described as Iran’s two most central ballistic missile production sites—one at the Parchin military complex south of Tehran, and the other in the Shahrud area, some 2,000 kilometers from Israel. The strikes on Shahrud were particularly significant because it was where most of the missiles fired at Israel were manufactured. The IDF said the recent strikes caused significant damage to Iran’s missile production capabilities, setting Iran back years, and claimed the attacks significantly limited Tehran’s ability to arm its proxies. Another notable strike hit Mehrabad Airport in Tehran, destroying 16 aircraft that the IDF claimed were being used to supply weapons to Hezbollah.

In Jordan, analysts were finally able to confirm the extent of the damage from an earlier Iranian strike targeting facilities associated with the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, system. Satellite imagery showed that a radar unit belonging to a THAAD battery stationed at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base had been destroyed. The radar is believed to be the AN/TPY-2, a highly sophisticated missile detection system manufactured by Raytheon that costs close to $500 million according to US defense budget documents—an indication of just how much this war is costing not only the Middle East but also Washington.

The Hunt for Ron Arad: Israel’s Deepest Lebanon Incursion

The Mehrabad strike, aimed at Hezbollah’s supply lines, leads to Lebanon, where Israel carried out a major operation over the weekend to locate the remains of Ron Arad, an Israeli pilot who went missing in Lebanon in 1986. The Guardian reported that two Israeli helicopters landed outside the towns of Nabi Chit and Khraibeh along the Syrian-Lebanese border in the eastern Bekaa Valley at 10 p.m. on a Friday night, dropping off Israeli soldiers. The soldiers then headed to a cemetery in Nabi Chit and began to dig up a grave where they suspected the remains of Ron Arad were held.

Both the Lebanese army and Hezbollah claimed they had detected the incursion, and that is when, to borrow a phrase, all hell broke loose. Hezbollah claimed its fighters ambushed the soldiers outside the cemetery, supported by residents of the area, with the fighting lasting until 3 a.m. Videos of the incident showed a constant stream of tracer bullets flying through the air, and residents calling for people from other villages—most of whom are heavily armed and support Hezbollah—to come and help repel the Israelis.

In response to the attacks, the Israeli military launched at least 40 airstrikes on the town, leaving more than 40 people dead and scores more injured. The Nabi Chit operation was the deepest Israeli forces have penetrated into Lebanon since November 2024, when special forces apprehended a Hezbollah operative from the northern city of Batroun. It represents the growing reach of Israeli operations as the conflict with Hezbollah intensifies across multiple fronts in Lebanon.

Water as a Weapon: Strikes Across the Gulf

American operations also continued throughout the weekend, with US forces targeting a freshwater desalination plant on Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said the strikes had cut into the water supply of 30 villages and warned that the US had set a dangerous precedent.

Regional observers have long feared that desalination plants could be targeted because they supply water to millions of people across the region and present an easy target for any government looking to put pressure on its enemies. There are about 400 desalination plants in the Middle East, which combined produce roughly 40 percent of the world’s desalinated water. Knock them offline for long enough, and normal life suddenly becomes extremely hard for a great many people.

That is true of the Gulf states as well. Iran retaliated with a drone strike against Bahrain that damaged a desalination plant and injured three people. Despite the damage, the nation’s electricity and water authority said supplies remained online. Bahrain is particularly vulnerable to attacks on its water infrastructure because it has no natural aquifers and relies almost entirely on desalinated water and a pipeline from Saudi Arabia to supply its residents.

Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, described the attack as a major escalation in an interview with The National. In his words: “Iran is moving on from striking assets that hurt Gulf economies and global energy markets to ones that will have a material effect on the livelihoods of Gulf citizens.”

The UAE Front and a Crack in the Alliance

Iran also targeted the United Arab Emirates over the weekend, attacking several targets including Ben Zayed Airport in Abu Dhabi, a residential building, and a hotel. The UAE’s ministry of defense announced that it had intercepted 16 ballistic missiles launched toward the country and that another missile fell into the sea.

There had been reports that the UAE struck an Iranian desalination plant in retaliation, in what would have been its first retaliatory attack since the beginning of the war, but a senior official speaking to the Jerusalem Post denied those claims. Another source close to the UAE that spoke with the Post accused Israel of leaking reports of its attack in Iran and claimed that Abu Dhabi was struggling to understand Israeli conduct and the nature of briefings coming out of Jerusalem.

Such a statement indicates one of two things: either an attempt by the UAE to distance itself from strikes on civilian infrastructure, or a sign of growing tension between Abu Dhabi and Jerusalem over how the war is being conducted and communicated to the public.

Washington and Jerusalem: A First Significant Rift

Two stories could shape the outcome of the war, or at least its shape in the coming weeks. First, according to Axios, Israel’s strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots on a Saturday went far beyond what the US expected when Jerusalem notified it in advance, sparking the first significant disagreement between the allies since the war began. While Israel claimed the fuel depots were used by the Iranian regime to supply fuel to different consumers including its military organs, an American official told Axios that Washington did not think it was a good idea.

Washington’s concerns were twofold. First, the US was concerned that Israeli strikes on infrastructure serving ordinary Iranians could backfire strategically, rallying Iranian society to support the regime. While the regime is extremely unpopular for its violent excesses, including a deadly crackdown on protesters in January, there is a long history of unpopular regimes using foreign attacks to rally the nation behind them.

In a previous interview with the WarFronts team, available on Fronts.co, Professor Rockford Weitz of Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy estimated that about 40 percent of the nation supported the regime. Attacks targeting public infrastructure, or hitting too close to home for civilian populations, could see that number increase significantly.

The other concern was oil prices. Footage of burning depots could spook oil markets and push energy prices even higher than they already are. A Trump adviser told Axios that the president does not like the attack—that he wants to save the oil and does not want to burn it because it reminds people of higher gas prices. It is a valid concern, as the average price of gas in the US has shot up from about $3 per gallon before the strikes to $3.45, with more increases expected.

Some analysts predict prices could hit all-time highs before the end of March.

The Uranium Question and a War Decided “by Mutual Consent”

Washington’s backlash to the strikes was so intense that Lindsey Graham—a long-time Iran hawk who coached Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on how to lobby President Trump for action in Iran—publicly criticized Israel’s choice of targets, urging Israel to be more careful to ensure the Iranian people could rebuild once the regime collapses. Coming from someone whose defining foreign policy position is pushing for an even closer relationship with Israel, the fact that he said it publicly highlighted just how concerned the administration was about the strikes.

Second, while Washington and Jerusalem argued over the oil depots, both governments have been discussing an even more ambitious operation. According to Axios, the US and Israel have discussed sending special forces into Iran to secure its stockpile of highly enriched uranium—estimated at about 450 kilograms—at a later stage of the war. American Secretary of State Marco Rubio alluded to the possibility during a congressional briefing when he said that people would need to go in to secure Iran’s enriched uranium.

Any operation to seize the material would require US or Israeli troops on Iranian soil, navigating heavily fortified underground facilities in hotly contested areas. Sources told Axios that such a mission would likely only take place after both countries are confident Iran’s military can no longer mount a serious threat to the forces involved. Even then, unless they killed or disarmed every member of Iran’s armed forces and their associated militias, such a mission would still carry major risks.

For now, the mission remains hypothetical, but the fact that it is being discussed at all shows how confident America and Israel are that they will win the war. President Trump said as much during an interview with the Times of Israel, declaring that the war would end by mutual consent between him and Prime Minister Netanyahu. For now, the conflict grinds on, with WarFronts continuing to monitor developments.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Iran’s new Supreme Leader and why was he chosen?

Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was chosen by Iran’s 88-member Assembly of Experts. The late Ayatollah had reportedly told close advisers he did not want the role to become hereditary, but infighting between political and military factions in Tehran created pressure to find a unifying hardline figure. Analysts say Mojtaba was selected because he was seen as the most ready to quickly consolidate power, and his ties to the IRGC—along with the deaths of his mother, wife, and a sister in the strike that killed his father—make him expected to be especially hardline.

What happened with President Pezeshkian’s apology to Iran’s neighbors?

Pezeshkian publicly apologized to neighboring countries that had been struck, saying Iran did not intend to invade them and blaming attacks on a prior “fire at will” policy. Hardline lawmakers and clerics responded furiously, calling the apology unprofessional, weak, and humiliating. Hours later, Pezeshkian issued a second statement asserting that Iran had not attacked its neighbors—removing any apology—a reversal analysts described as evidence of his powerlessness within the military-dominated system.

What Iranian military sites did Israel strike during the second week?

Israel struck Iran’s Aerospace Headquarters, used to launch satellites including the 2022 Khayyam satellite. It also hit what the IDF called Iran’s two most central ballistic missile production sites—at the Parchin military complex south of Tehran and in the Shahrud area roughly 2,000 kilometers from Israel—and attacked Mehrabad Airport, destroying 16 aircraft the IDF claimed were supplying Hezbollah. The IDF said the combined strikes set Iran’s missile production back years.

Why are desalination plants being targeted and why does it matter?

The Middle East hosts about 400 desalination plants producing roughly 40 percent of the world’s desalinated water. US forces struck a plant on Iran’s Qeshm Island, cutting water to 30 villages; Iran retaliated with a drone strike that damaged a Bahraini plant—a country with no natural aquifers that relies almost entirely on desalinated water and a Saudi pipeline. Regional analysts described the strikes as a major escalation because they threaten the daily livelihoods of civilian populations rather than just military or economic assets.

Why did Washington and Israel clash over the fuel-depot strikes, and what are they planning next?

Israel’s strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots went further than the US expected, sparking the first significant disagreement of the war. Washington worried the attacks on infrastructure serving ordinary Iranians could rally public support for the regime, and a Trump adviser noted that burning depots were pushing gas prices from about $3 to $3.45 per gallon—the opposite of what the president wanted. Meanwhile, both governments have discussed a more ambitious follow-on operation: sending special forces into Iran to secure an estimated 450 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, though any such mission would require confidence that Iran’s military could no longer mount a serious threat.

Sources

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