Is the 21st Century's Deadliest War about to Restart? And More.

The 21st Century’s Deadliest War Could be about to Restart (Author: Morris M.) When the guns fell silent in November of 2022, it signaled the end of the deadliest conflict the 21st Century had yet seen. Running for almost exactly two years, the Tigray War pitched the state militia of Ethiopia’s Tigray region against the forces of the federal government in Addis Ababa, and its backers in both Amhara state and neighboring Eritrea. At its height, it’s estimated that more than a million men were fighting along the frontlines.

Key Developments

But it was the death toll that really made the conflict notable. Thanks to a government blockade that aimed to starve the renegade province into submission, it’s believed today that somewhere between 600,000 and 800,000 died. That’s more fatalities than seen during the Syrian Civil War, or the conflict in Ukraine.

A death toll that - even at its lower end - would still be more than twelve times higher than that seen in Gaza. Of course, there’s always some debate around superlatives, and academics argue about whether Tigray really was this century’s deadliest war. Mainly because you have to discount conflicts that started in the 1990s and crossed into the new millennium to hand it the crown, but also because there’s some evidence that the current catastrophe in Sudan may have since overtaken it.

Amid fears of a new conflict, both governments are trying to win over the Tigrayan leaders, who are more divided than ever.” If this is correct, it’s not impossible that the power struggle in Tigray could see one TPLF faction side with Eritrea, while the other sides with the Ethiopian government.

Strategic Implications

But whether it gets the top spot or not, there’s no arguing that the Tigray War was spectacularly bloody. And that means the world should be worried by recent news coming out the province. News that suggests the war may not be over, and that fighting could be about to restart.

Or, to quote the Addis Standard: “The growing political-military crisis in Tigray is dangerously close to triggering another civil war.” The political-military crisis in question has its seeds in the Pretoria Agreement that ended the fighting in 2022. Although defeated by Ethiopian government forces and their Amharan and Eritrean allies, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (or TPLF) managed to end the war with over 75,000 men still under arms, and one of their own - a guy called Getachew Reda - leading the province as the head of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration.

Although that sounds like a win for the TPLF, in practice it has been a massive disappointment.

Risk and Uncertainty

While a process to disarm the group began in November, the Ethiopian government has yet to implement many of the Pretoria Agreement’s key promises. The biggest of these regards Western Tigray zone, which was occupied by forces from Ethiopia’s Amhara region - who call the area Welkait. Now, we don’t have time to go into the history of Welkait, since it’s easily as complicated as that of Cyprus or Northern Ireland.

But the short version is that both the Amhara and the Tigrayans believe they have a historical claim to it, and both saw their compatriots living there persecuted and ethnically cleansed by the other side. Regaining control of Welkait was therefore supposed to be one of the Amharans’ big rewards for siding with the government in the war. But the Pretoria Agreement cut them out the deal, instead promising that their forces would withdraw to neighboring Amhara state, and that the question of Western Tigray would be settled by a referendum.

Outlook

Rather than comply, the ethnic Amhara militias known as Fano stayed put. And that has caused a brewing crisis. In Tigray itself, the TPLF has begun to accuse interim leader Getachew of not standing up to the federal government and making them force the Fano to withdraw.

This frustration boiled over in August, when TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael called a congress, where he accused Getachew of not representing the region’s interests. In a subsequent ballot, TPLF leadership voted to expel Getachew from the party. Here’s where things get REALLY complicated.

This February, the specialist outlet Africa Defense Forum wrote that: “The conflict continues to escalate, with widespread violence and heavy clashes across the Amhara region and parts of Oromia.” While the government holds all the major urban centers, it’s currently thought that up to 80 percent of Amhara region’s countryside may be under control of the Fano.

Related Coverage

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• Russia’s Death Toll Tops 100,000 as Ukraine War’s Human Cost Deepens
• Sudan’s Forgotten War: How Two Generals Plunged Africa Into Catastrophe
• This Is Ukraine’s Moment of Truth.
• This Is Ukraine’s Moment of Truth.

Sources

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2. https://addisstandard.com/seeds-of-war-conflict-looms-over-tigray-as-regional-military-forces-side-with-political-factions/
3. https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-and-national-security-analysis/post/tigray-troop-movements-indicate-increased-risk-of-inter-factional-violence-with-ethiopias-amhara-region
4. https://apanews.net/eritrea-conscripting-military-veterans-amid-ethiopia-tensions/
5. https://www.bbc.com/somali/articles/clyn0dx4e2wo
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7. https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/focus/20241114-two-years-after-ethiopia-s-tigray-war-eritrean-forces-still-occupy-border-regions
8. https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2025/2/17/to-avoid-another-conflict-in-the-horn-of-africa-now-is-the-time-to-act
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10. https://adf-magazine.com/2025/02/fighting-continues-in-ethiopias-amhara-region/
11. https://x.com/_hudsonc/status/1894377555366416784