Israel and Iran may, or may not, be at peace. After twelve days of intense aerial bombardment, drastically spiking tensions, and the largest stealth bombing run in world history, the Middle East’s two bitterest enemies have done the one thing nobody expected. Just hours after ballistic missiles rained down onto an American military base, and as the city of Tehran was still being battered by Israeli air power, the nations agreed to a truce one by one.
First the United States, then Iran, and finally Israel, confirmed that they would lay down their weapons and bring an end to an undeclared war that has rewritten the fates of the Middle East. But the reality on the ground was significantly more messy, and it remains an open question whether the region is headed to a lasting truce, or to a phase of war that will make the previous two weeks seem like child’s play.
The June 23rd Escalation and the Strike on Al-Udeid
Even compared to the day-to-day insanity of life in the Middle East since June 13th, the events that unfolded on Monday the 23rd represent something truly special. Assessing the situation as of nine o’clock in the morning on June 24th, local time in Tehran, missiles had only just stopped falling across the nation of Israel. There are no guarantees that the ceasefire will hold, but it seems as if the situation is about as stable as it can get for the moment.
Key Takeaways
- Iran launched 19 ballistic missiles at Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar, with 18 intercepted by PATRIOT systems and no casualties reported.
- The Iranian strike was intentionally telegraphed to the United States, allowing personnel to safely evacuate and providing an off-ramp for further escalation.
- A uniquely structured ceasefire was proposed, allowing Israel a 12-hour window to conduct operations while Iran observed the truce.
- Despite declaring a ceasefire, Iran launched at least five subsequent missile barrages toward Israel leading up to the agreed-upon deadline.
- An Iranian missile penetrated Israeli air defenses, striking a residential building in Beersheba, killing at least four civilians and critically injuring three.
- Explosive drones launched by suspected Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria targeted military radar, Iranian bases, and an installation housing US troops.
At the start of the day on Monday, it seemed as if this particular day of the Israel-Iran crisis would unfold in roughly the same manner as the days that had come before. Israel would continue its aerial campaign against Iran, Iran would launch volleys of missiles into Israel, and the entire world would wait to find out whether Iran would also retaliate against the United States after a series of airstrikes severely damaged Iran’s nuclear facilities. For most of the day, Monday played out pretty much as expected, until it got to just about dinnertime in the city of Tehran.
As the day had gone on, fears began to spike that an Iranian retaliation was imminent. The United States began to prepare its people in Qatar, where substantial American military assets were stationed, for what they suspected to be an incoming strike. Meanwhile, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the Emirates all closed their airspace.
Finally, as the evening went on, Iran launched a series of nineteen ballistic missiles, targeting an American airbase called Al-Udeid. Qatari air defenses roared to life in response, launching interceptors and bringing down a total of eighteen of the missiles, while the last one was allowed to impact an empty building close to the airbase. Qatar and the United States confirmed that there had been no casualties as a result of the attack.
Calculated Retaliation and the Path to De-escalation
As information about Iran’s retaliatory strike began to emerge, it quickly became clear that not all was what it seemed. Rather than targeting several of the many American military bases scattered across the Middle East, the missiles had gone exclusively after Al-Udeid. Instead of being paired with a drone swarm that could have temporarily overwhelmed missile defenses in the area, the strike consisted of only a handful of ballistic missiles, in an attack that Qatar’s American-made PATRIOT air defense systems would have been expected to stop.
Furthermore, the strike had been directed toward an airbase where American warplanes had largely been dispersed weeks ago, long before America even entered the conflict directly. News then emerged from sources in Qatar that Iran had reached out to the nation in advance to warn it that an attack was inbound. Finally, America’s president took to social media to explain that Iran’s entire strike had been little more than a well-manicured fireworks display.
Donald Trump explained the situation, stating: “I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured.” By America’s account, by Qatar’s, and eventually with the confirmation of Iranian sources, the attack on Al-Udeid Airbase was meant to achieve two things. On the one hand, it was meant to provide enough red meat to Iran’s internal hardliners that they’d be at least somewhat placated, with Iran claiming to its own people that it had successfully retaliated against America.
On the other hand, the strike was calibrated to ensure that America knew it was an empty gesture, ensure that America didn’t have any reasons to retaliate, and thus, leave America a path to make a graceful, easy exit. Not only had the United States known about the attack, but American and Qatari officials had met at least a day before to plan the specifics of their upcoming missile interceptions. All in all, Iran appears to have calibrated an even less escalatory retaliation than its 2020 response to the killing of Qasem Soleimani.
Choosing to explicitly target an evacuated base ensured that even the traumatic brain injuries that some US soldiers suffered from Iran’s 2020 retaliation wouldn’t pose a problem this time around. It was a far cry from the all-out war that Iran had promised in the wake of America’s strikes, and it opened the door for a transition to what Trump called online, “Peace and Harmony,” declaring in a subsequent post: “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!”
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A Strange Ceasefire Arrangement and Midnight Deadlines
Much to the surprise of observers who had assumed the administration was being overly optimistic, it would only take a couple of hours for discussions of peace to begin. Indeed, if Iran struck America’s airbase in Qatar around dinnertime, then Iranians were in for a surprise when they got up for a midnight snack. By that time, Trump had announced online that it had been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there would be a complete and total ceasefire in approximately six hours, when Israel and Iran had wound down and completed their in-progress, final missions.
This would be followed by a 12-hour period, at which point the war would be considered ended. Decoded from the initial announcement, Israel and Iran would wrap up their strikes within a period of about six hours—translating to midnight on the twenty-fourth in Washington, or about seven in the morning in Jerusalem and Tehran. Then, Iran would abide by ceasefire conditions for twelve hours, presumably while Israel was at liberty to continue its strikes, and then, after those twelve hours, Israel would abide by ceasefire conditions too.
Assuming that both sides got to twenty-four hours, that would be that, and the Middle East would be at peace. That is a rather strange way to go about a ceasefire, and according to reports from the White House, many senior advisers did not know about the arrangement until it was posted on social media. Although the weirdness of the whole thing led a range of defense experts to speculate that it was a bluff, news quickly started to emerge that there was really something going on behind the scenes.
According to sources interviewed by Axios, Iran had reached out to Qatar after its strikes a few hours prior, and asked Qatari officials to pass along a message to America that Iran was done with its attacks. America wrote back, asking the Qataris to pass a note saying they didn’t plan to retaliate, and would happily restart nuclear negotiations. Those back-and-forth messages then started to focus on establishing terms.
In a direct call to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the United States was able to bring Jerusalem on board. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took to the airwaves to state that Iran had forced the West into a ceasefire deal. Although Iran’s Supreme Leader posted online that Iran would refuse any ceasefire terms, that appeared to be the latest in a long line of examples of the Supreme Leader’s public statements not matching the actual intent of his government.
As more details emerged, it became clear that Israel and Iran had agreed to stop striking each other at four in the morning, local time in Tehran.
Post-Deadline Barrages and the Attack on Beersheba
As the moment of truth came closer, it appeared increasingly unlikely that the ceasefire would hold. Israel continued its bombing of Tehran, and appeared to intensify the attacks, striking all across the city with some of the most relentless airstrikes thus far in the conflict. By appearances, they seemed to be trying to get as many final strikes in as possible before a ceasefire took effect.
Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Israel, although it didn’t score any hits, with those missiles being intercepted in midair. But as the clock ran down to zero, Israeli warplanes turned back from Iranian airspace, the flow of Iranian missiles petered out to nothing, and a long-awaited silence fell across the region. As the fighting wound down, Trump spoke to the press in Washington about the diplomatic feat, and when asked how long the ceasefire would last, he offered that he thought the ceasefire was unlimited and was going to go on forever.
Unfortunately for the diplomatic efforts, that timeframe turned out to last for about five minutes. Despite Iran having declared a ceasefire, and announcing it to Iranians on national television, the nation launched a small wave of ballistic missiles toward Israel after the ceasefire was supposed to have taken effect. At first, the missiles seemed as if they might have been a mistake, or the consequence of Iran’s command-and-control being so thoroughly degraded that a military unit or two might have gone rogue and launched missiles by themselves.
But once they were intercepted, alerts went out across much of Israel that another barrage was on the way—this one larger than the one before. Air defense systems went into action again, as rumors spread that perhaps the ceasefire deadline had shifted. During the second wave of attacks, a missile broke through Israel’s air defenses and crashed down to score a direct hit on a residential building in the city of Beersheba.
Four people were killed in the strike, and three others critically injured, with that death toll expected to rise. As smoke was still rising in Beersheba, another missile alert went out, warning Israelis that a third wave was incoming, this time targeting most of the country. This was after Iran had already announced a ceasefire on state television, and just minutes before the initial deadline that had been proposed.
Israel had still held off on officially announcing a ceasefire. In Washington, the messaging coming from the White House consisted of social media posts written as if the ceasefire was holding, but published while missiles were in the air. After the third wave of strikes, Iran seemingly waited for the Israeli military to announce an all-clear before sending a fourth round of missiles on their way.
After the fourth, Iran launched a fifth.
Command and Control Concerns and Regional Implications
Each salvo was intercepted, with the final interceptions taking place just about five minutes before the initial midnight deadline was meant to take effect. At midnight in Washington, D.C., the deadline passed, and all went quiet again across the Middle East, before the Israeli military sent out alerts to warn of a sixth missile salvo inbound. Speaking to Israeli media after Iran continued its strikes past the deadline, the Netanyahu government began considering its options in order to decide on a path forward.
Iranian state media claimed that the sixth barrage against Israel had been launched before the ceasefire began, and that the ceasefire should now be considered to have taken effect, but whether Israel is still interested remains to be seen. According to the arrangement that was laid out, Israel holds a twelve-hour window in which they are able to strike Iran, while Iran must abide by the terms of a ceasefire. Iran’s foreign minister framed his nation’s waves of missile strikes as continuing until the last minute, suggesting that Iran does now intend to keep to the ceasefire, but whether that happens is highly uncertain.
Israel now has the deaths of at least four civilians to account for, with those deaths taking place in a hazy period that may or may not have been understood by Israel to be part of the ceasefire. How Israel reacts to those deaths, and Iran’s broader conduct over the prior few hours, may dictate the scale of any Israeli strikes that take place in the coming hours. Beyond the immediate implications of the next twelve hours, there are other burning questions that must be answered before this crisis can be declared over.
Perhaps the most important of all is the status of Iran’s command-and-control infrastructure in this stage of the fighting. While it now appears that Iran’s latest missile barrages were intended to be launched by the regime, there were early concerns that rogue units of the Revolutionary Guard Corps might have been responsible. Even though that doesn’t appear to be the case this time, there’s a real possibility that units could go rogue in the future, acting in protest against the ceasefire and potentially dragging Israel and Iran back to war.
If the two sides can keep a ceasefire at all, Iran will need to quickly assert control of its military units, while Israel will need to find some way to determine the difference between a state-sponsored act of aggression and a provocation by soldiers who may not speak for Tehran. On the subject of discontent with the regime, it will be important to watch the reactions of the Iranian public as closely as possible now that a ceasefire has been declared. A large portion of the Iranian people are bitterly opposed to their own ruling regime, and the ceasefire risks inflaming tensions.
Iran’s hardliners might respond by accepting Tehran’s narrative that it forced the West to accept a deal, or they could just as easily turn on the regime for its perceived inadequacy. Adding to the volatility, military assets in Iraq came under attack from explosive drones on Monday and early Tuesday, targeting radar, Iranian bases, and even a base where US troops are located. Those attacks are believed to be the work of Iran-backed militias active across Iraq and Syria, introducing a dangerous wildcard into the situation just as their benefactor seemed ready to enter a ceasefire.
Simon Whistler
Simon Whistler is one of YouTube's most prolific educational creators. WarFronts is his deep dive into military history and conflict analysis.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Iran strike Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar, and why was only one missile allowed to hit?
Iran launched nineteen ballistic missiles at Al-Udeid, but the strike was deliberately calibrated as a near-empty gesture. Qatar and the United States had been warned in advance, allowing personnel to evacuate, and the two nations coordinated interceptions together. Iran chose an evacuated base and used only a handful of missiles that PATRIOT systems were expected to stop, sending just enough of a signal to satisfy domestic hardliners while giving Washington a clear path to de-escalate. Trump confirmed that Iran had provided early warning, making it possible for no lives to be lost.
How was the ceasefire structured, and why was it unusual?
The arrangement announced by Trump allowed Israel a window of roughly six hours to complete in-progress operations, after which Iran would abide by ceasefire conditions for twelve hours, and then Israel would follow. This staggered structure — in which one side pauses before the other — was unusual enough that many senior White House advisers were unaware of it until Trump posted online. According to reports from Axios, back-channel messages passed through Qatar were central to agreeing the terms.
Did Iran respect the ceasefire after announcing it?
No, at least not immediately. Despite declaring a ceasefire on state television, Iran launched at least five additional missile barrages toward Israel leading up to and after the agreed deadline. During the second wave, a missile broke through Israeli defenses and struck a residential building in Beersheba, killing at least four civilians. Iran eventually attributed the salvos to launches timed before the ceasefire took effect, and all went quiet at the midnight deadline, though the situation remained highly fragile.
What are the concerns about Iran’s command-and-control infrastructure?
Weeks of Israeli strikes had degraded Iran’s military command structure significantly, raising fears that some units of the Revolutionary Guard Corps might act independently of Tehran’s orders. Early reports suggested rogue units could have been responsible for the post-ceasefire salvos, though it later appeared the regime itself had authorized them. Analysts warned that even if the central leadership honored the ceasefire, undisciplined or ideologically motivated units could restart hostilities without authorization from the top.
What role did Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria play during the ceasefire period?
On Monday and into Tuesday, explosive drones launched by suspected Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria targeted military radar installations, Iranian bases, and a base housing US troops. These attacks introduced a dangerous wildcard into the ceasefire effort just as Iran itself appeared ready to stand down, since the militias operate with degrees of independence from Tehran and could provoke retaliation that would drag both Iran and the United States back into active conflict.
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