Was Ukraine Really Behind the Nord Stream Sabotage? An Analysis of the German Investigation

On September 26th, 2022, seismic monitors in Sweden recorded a series of powerful impacts somewhere out in the Baltic Sea. Shortly afterwards, a stream of bubbles surfaced near the Danish island of Bornholm, roiling a large patch of water. That evening, far below the sea’s surface, explosions had torn through the Nord Stream pipelines bringing gas from Russia to Germany.

Three of the four pipes had ruptured, rendering them unusable. Coming at a time of extreme geopolitical tension, the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines generated no shortage of suspects—Russia blamed the US and UK, Western officials blamed Russia, and others pointed fingers at Ukrainian sabotage groups or the Polish government. In the near-two years since the pipeline blasts, multiple bodies tried to solve the mystery, with Sweden and Denmark investigating suspicious movements of Russian military vessels only to drop their cases for lack of evidence.

Yet in August 2024, the Wall Street Journal revealed the results of a long, German-led investigation that concluded the destruction was ordered and overseen by the highest echelons of the Ukrainian government—the recipient of billions of euros in German aid allegedly deliberately destroying German energy infrastructure.

The Nord Stream Pipelines: Infrastructure and Controversy

Coming online in 2011, Nord Stream 1 was a pair of pipelines designed in their most basic sense to bring gas to Germany directly from Russia. In a wider sense, they were also supposed to help tie the fortunes of Moscow to Europe, to integrate Russia into the continent and continue the ‘trade through change’ policy Germany had started pursuing back in the Cold War.

The reality was extremely controversial. Nations like Poland and Ukraine warned that Berlin was putting its energy security in Russia’s hands. At the same time, gas going via Nord Stream was gas not being pumped overland through Ukraine’s old pipelines—denying Kyiv transit fees worth billions of dollars.

Then there was the additional controversy surrounding Nord Stream 2. Constructed after the 2014 annexation of Crimea, it was seen by some as Berlin rewarding Moscow for its aggression. The Trump White House even slapped sanctions on the pipeline to stop its completion, although the Biden White House ultimately allowed it to go ahead. That it was never activated is due entirely to Russia launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

By the start of the war, the Nord Stream pipelines were seen by some eastern European states as both a geopolitical affront and also as an existential threat to Ukraine. A way for Moscow to gain leverage over Europe’s largest economy, while also depriving Kyiv of transit fees equivalent to four percent of GDP.

Russia’s Energy Weapon and the Initial Suspects

Germany was not alone in getting hooked on cheap Russian energy. The Financial Times reports that, by early-2022, the Kremlin supplied 46 percent of the EU’s gas imports (today, it’s more like 15 percent). But it was Berlin that Vladimir Putin would be first to target with his energy weapon.

In the summer of 2022, flows through Nord Stream plummeted. Moscow claimed it was due to a faulty turbine, but most observers thought Putin was punishing Berlin for backing Ukraine.

This is why the Kremlin was a suspect in the aftermath of the pipeline bombings. To many, the destruction of Nord Streams 1 and 2 appeared to be Putin burning his bridges with the West in the most dramatic way possible.

Yet, there was one place where the idea of Russian sabotage never gained much traction: Berlin. A couple of months before the blasts, the CIA had passed along a tip-off from the Dutch intelligence that Ukraine was plotting to destroy the pipelines. Now they lay in ruins, Germany was certain Kyiv must have been involved.

The Wall Street Journal’s Bombshell Report

It’s at this point that the established facts in the narrative start to merge with the story reported by the Wall Street Journal. A story that is contested even by some in Germany’s intelligence agencies, as well as one that is angrily denied by Ukraine. The Journal’s report represents what a large chunk of German officials currently believe, and that will likely have geopolitical consequences, even if portions of the account remain uncorroborated.

According to the Journal, the plot was hatched in May of 2022, when senior officers in Ukraine’s military and a group of businessmen gathered to celebrate the withdrawal of Russian forces from Kyiv. After a few too many drinks, someone apparently suggested a way to inflict further damage on the Kremlin: by destroying Nord Stream.

At the time, European nations were still handing over billions of dollars for Russian gas. Were Nord Stream 2 ever activated, Moscow would gain billions more. Blowing up the pipelines would therefore be an easy way to hurt the Kremlin’s wallet.

Here’s where the story gets controversial. According to the report, the general overseeing the mission reported directly to the Ukrainian army’s then-overall commander, Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Zaluzhnyi in turn took the idea directly to President Zelensky, who personally approved the plan.

At least, at first he did. According to the Journal, when the CIA learned of the plot they demanded Zelensky abort. Zelensky agreed, and ordered Zaluzhnyi to call it off. It was an order the general would fail to follow.

The Andromeda Operation: Details from Die Zeit

For details of what happened next, the account from German paper Die Zeit provides a detailed narrative. In their telling, the sabotage team Zaluzhnyi had dispatched rented a sailing yacht—the Andromeda—and set off from the German town of Rostock.

Under the guise of a boating holiday, the team eventually crossed the location of the Nord Stream pipelines. There, they dived down to a depth of 80 meters and attached explosives. Not long after, on the evening of September 26th, the first charges detonated.

The evidence Die Zeit provides that the crew onboard the Andromeda were responsible is long and fairly convincing: ranging from DNA traces, to cellular data, to accounts from eyewitnesses who just happened to encounter the ship during its travels. But perhaps nothing is quite so damning as the following finding: “Investigators later found residues of the explosive HMX, also known as octogen, on board the Andromeda.”

As to how this was linked back to Ukraine, a white van connected to the boat trip was caught by a speed camera on the German island of Rügen. The Financial Times reports that it was carrying diving equipment used during the operation. Sat in the front passenger seat was none other than Volodymyr Zhuravlov—a 44-year-old diving instructor from Kyiv who was living in Poland.

The Polish Connection and the Escaped Suspect

Zhuravlov’s possible connection to the Andromeda was enough for German authorities to issue an arrest warrant for him this June. Berlin believes it was received by Polish authorities, who then failed to act on it. Rather than be arrested, Zhuravlov freely crossed the border into Ukraine in July. Since Ukraine does not extradite its own citizens, it’s now unlikely that the arrest warrant will ever be served.

Speaking anonymously, German officials have complained to the media that this wasn’t the only time Polish authorities hampered their investigation. CCTV footage of the Andromeda at a port in Poland was requested by Berlin, only for Warsaw to reply that the footage had been destroyed.

The suspicion in some quarters is that Poland may now be helping Ukraine hide the truth of what happened that fateful September day. August Hanning—the former head of Germany’s intelligence agency—has even been quoted by Deutsche Welle as saying: “(Warsaw) was heavily involved in the preparation of this attack.”

The mere accusation that a NATO ally may have helped plot an attack on German infrastructure is as incendiary as possible. Although Hanning is long retired, such statements from a former intelligence chief carry significant weight in public discourse.

Denials and Counternarratives

Perhaps unsurprisingly, reactions to the allegations depend heavily on which side one already stands. Poland and Ukraine have issued denials bordering on the contemptuous. Polish deputy prime minister, Krzysztof Gawkowski, responded to accusations of Warsaw’s involvement by stating: “It has to be said clearly that this is a lie (…) I think this is Russian disinformation resonating through the words of German politicians.”

Meanwhile, one of Ukraine’s presidential aids told AFP that: “Ukraine’s involvement in the Nord Stream explosions is absolute nonsense. There was no practical sense in such actions for Ukraine (…) It is clear that the explosions of the Nord Stream pipelines did not stop the war, did not deter Russian aggression, and did not affect the situation on the front line.”

It’s not only authorities in Poland and Ukraine who think the Journal’s story is Russian-backed disinformation. Politico recently reported on senior German intelligence officials who are worried the whole thing is an elaborate false flag attack designed by Russia to sap Western support for Ukraine. The Polish authorities are confident enough in this explanation that they’ve even compiled a list of Russian agents involved.

As a result, it’s hard to say for sure that the mystery has now been solved. While the German story is compelling, until some hard evidence emerges it will remain merely that: a story.

Geopolitical Consequences and the Future of German-Ukrainian Relations

At this stage, the truth may not really matter as much as perceptions. What matters is that German intelligence believes it has the answer. Believes that Ukraine committed an act of war against its energy infrastructure. An act of war that it suspects may have been abetted by its NATO ally Poland. Should this become the dominant view among German politicians, it’s hard to see how it couldn’t have massive consequences.

So far, everyone is being careful to keep those consequences below the radar. Deutsche Welle reports that Berlin has so far “insisted its (military) help to Ukraine was ‘completely independent’ from the (Nord Stream) probe and its ties to Kyiv are unaffected.”

Really, though, no one believes that one won’t affect the other. Die Zeit, for example, finished its in-depth report on the revelations by asking: “What would happen if Ukrainians were actually behind the attack? Would the ambassador have to be summoned? Would the arms deliveries be stopped? How would one deal with a country that destroyed the infrastructure that Germany wanted to use to supply itself with gas?”

Fairly or unfairly, these are questions that won’t be going away anytime soon. And unless Ukraine or Poland can produce a counternarrative that quietens German suspicions, then these questions are only going to grow more pressing as more time passes.

Because, as things stand today, Berlin is in an increasingly awkward position. The bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines may have been just one murky event in a war full of them, but it could yet become something else, too. An event that could shape relations between Ukraine and her second-biggest military backer at one of the war’s most crucial turning points.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the Nord Stream pipelines and why were they controversial?

Nord Stream 1 (opened 2011) and Nord Stream 2 were pipelines designed to bring gas directly from Russia to Germany. They were controversial because they gave Russia leverage over Germany’s energy security, bypassed Ukraine’s pipelines (costing Ukraine transit fees equivalent to 4% of GDP), and Nord Stream 2 was built after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, which some saw as rewarding Russian aggression.

What does the German investigation claim about who was responsible?

According to the Wall Street Journal’s report on the German investigation, the sabotage was allegedly ordered by Ukrainian President Zelensky and overseen by then-Commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi. The plot was supposedly hatched in May 2022 during a celebration. The CIA learned of the plot and demanded Zelensky abort it, which he ordered, but Zaluzhnyi allegedly proceeded anyway.

What evidence links the sailing yacht Andromeda to the attack?

Investigators found residues of the explosive HMX on board the Andromeda, along with DNA traces, cellular data, and eyewitness accounts. A white van connected to the boat trip was caught on a speed camera carrying diving equipment, with Ukrainian diving instructor Volodymyr Zhuravlov in the passenger seat. The yacht had departed from the German town of Rostock and the team dived to a depth of 80 meters to place the explosives.

Why is Poland suspected of involvement, and how have Ukraine and Poland responded?

German authorities believe Poland received an arrest warrant for suspect Volodymyr Zhuravlov but failed to act on it, allowing him to escape to Ukraine. When Berlin requested CCTV footage of the Andromeda at a Polish port, Warsaw replied the footage had been destroyed. Both countries deny involvement — Poland’s deputy prime minister called it Russian disinformation, while a Ukrainian presidential aide said Ukraine’s involvement was “absolute nonsense” with no practical sense.

What are the potential geopolitical consequences of these findings?

German intelligence’s conclusion that Ukraine — a recipient of billions in German aid — deliberately destroyed German energy infrastructure is deeply destabilizing. While Berlin has publicly insisted its military support for Ukraine is unaffected, few believe the investigation will not eventually influence policy. As Die Zeit asked: would Germany need to summon the Ukrainian ambassador, halt arms deliveries, or fundamentally rethink a relationship if the findings are confirmed?

Sources

• https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-real-story-da24839c
• https://x.com/DAlperovitch/status/1823898586922295622
• https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2024-07/nordstream-anschlag-ermittlungen-festnahme
• https://www.ft.com/content/120d3b78-68b4-4b42-9e65-c55e8fd77fd0
• https://www.politico.eu/article/nord-stream-pipeline-energy-supply-attack-ukraine-russia-war-putin-zelensky-gas/
• https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/nord-stream-blowback/
• https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/14/world/europe/nord-stream-explosion-germany-ukraine-arrest-warrant.html
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/19/russia-criticises-german-progress-in-nord-stream-sabotage-inquiry
• https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-sabotage-how-are-key-players-reacting/a-69964635