Why Does Israel Keep Attacking Syria? And More.

SR 10.3_STORY 2 (TITLE): South Sudan Erupts (Author: Morris M.) (QUICK PLUG FOR WARFRONTS NEWSLETTER): Before we get onto the next story, I just want to take a moment to shamelessly plug our newsletter. Every Tuesday, we publish a short newsletter getting you up to date on the most-important stories happening anywhere in the world. Major breaking war news, under the radar looks into conflicts you’ve never even heard of… basically, if you like Situation Room, you’re going to love this.

Key Developments

We’ll put the link in the description below, or you can be delightfully old fashioned and write it down as I read it out loud. So, go to https://subscribepage.io/WarFrontsWeekly to subscribe. That’s https://subscribepage.io/WarFrontsWeekly. And now, on to our next story. (SOUTH SUDAN TEXT BEGINS): The last time South Sudan appeared on this channel, it was just two months ago, on January 6th. In that Situation Room report, we covered the creaking economy of the world’s youngest nation, and compared it to a Jenga tower that has just had the last block holding it up kicked away. A cynical read would be that the White Army’s takeover of Nasir was ordered by Machar to help secure the oil rich region ahead of a potential renewed civil war. The entire post-war period from 2020 until today can basically be described as plundering on an epic scale, as little things like “social cohesion,” and “building a functioning nation,” were sacrificed on the altar of making Kiir and Machar filthy rich.

Strategic Implications

To quote ourselves: “At time of writing, things appear to be frozen in the moment where the tower is falling, but has not yet shattered (…) Civil war has so far not restarted. But the signs are already there of a coming catastrophe.” Well, two months later, we may have finally reached the point where the collapsing tower hits the ground.

At the beginning of last week, a wave of arrests swept the capital of Juba, targeting prominent members of the armed political party SPLM-IO. The Deputy Chief of Staff, the Petroleum Minister… all were caught up in a dragnet that seemed to be targeting their faction. But the biggest problem came when security forces surrounded the residence of Vice President Riek Machar.

The head of SPLM-IO, Machar has spent the last half-decade in a power-sharing government with President Salva Kiir - a structure set up in the wake of the civil war.

Risk and Uncertainty

A conflict that not only killed over 400,000 people but forced millions more to flee their homes. Now, the 2018 peace agreement that ended the fighting could be in danger. SPLM-IO leadership declared the recent arrests “violated the revitalized peace agreement.” Gezero Media’s report was more on the nose, with their headline simply declaring: “South Sudan on brink of civil war.”

Such a statement is not hyperbole. The 2013 to 2018 conflict kicked off in a similar fashion, with President Kiir maneuvering against Machar and his political faction. A dangerous move in a nation where political loyalty is segregated almost entirely along deep ethnic divides. Home to almost 12 million people scattered among 60 tribes and groups, South Sudan is mostly dominated by Kiir’s Dinka group - who compromise about a third of the population - and the Nuer group, from which Vice President Machar hails.

Outlook

For decades now, local elites have used ethnic nationalism as a way of ginning up hatred whenever it suited them. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (better known as ACLED) has written about this process (quote): “Political rivals, traditional leaders, and businesspeople weaponize identities through hate speech and patronage networks, mobilizing or partnering with armed youth, government soldiers, and mercenaries.” When South Sudan broke free of its old overlord Sudan in 2011, there were high hopes that these differences could be put to one side in order to build a state that worked for everyone.

As the Economist has pointed out, the country’s oil wealth at independence was so great that it technically counted as a middle-income country. But rather than become a source of national wealth, oil instead became the latest shiny thing to be fought over. The problem was that South Sudan’s reserves of black gold are concentrated in Unity and Upper Nile states - the area Vice President Machar is from, and where his ethnic Nuer group are based.

So, when Kiir and Machar had their first blow-up in 2013, it was suddenly in everyone’s interests to try and secure the Greater Upper Nile region.

Related Coverage

• South Sudan is on Fire. Here’s Why. (And More)
• South Sudan on the Brink: Nation Faces Collapse
• Did Rich Foreigners Pay to Shoot Civilians in Bosnia?
• This Is Ukraine’s Moment of Truth.
• This Is Ukraine’s Moment of Truth.

Sources

1. https://subscribepage.io/WarFrontsWeekly
2. https://sudantribune.com/article298142/
3. https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/white-army-claims-control-of-nasir-town
4. https://acleddata.com/2025/01/31/south-sudans-peace-process-stagnates-as-violence-grips-greater-upper-nile-region/
5. https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/security-tightens-around-machars-residence
6. https://apnews.com/article/south-sudan-tension-violence-fighting-upper-nile-c0083aec9f62e325bbf53eef94638e8c
7. https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/02/27/south-sudan-army-attacks-displace-thousands-nasir
8. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/12/19/south-sudans-economic-crisis-threatens-its-fragile-peace
9. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czrnydyy763o
10. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/07/south-sudan-succession-10th-anniversary-us-policy-democracy/