Situation Room 2.24.2025: Will South Korea Squander its Arms-Dealer Potential? Should We All Be Worried About Tajikistan? Will South Korea Squander its Arms-Dealer Potential?
Key Developments
In the last several years, South Korea has reaped the benefits of a transformation. Wind the clock back a decade, and the nation’s modest arms industry was barely relevant on the world stage, but today, South Korea has become one of the top ten defense exporters on Earth, beating out exporters like Sweden, Brazil, Japan, Turkey, and more. Combining its immense manufacturing capabilities and its cutting-edge capacity for research and design, the nation has made itself a major player, with zero intent to settle for tenth place.
But right now, South Korea’s defense industry has a problem—one that risks turning the world’s hottest new arms dealer, into a has-been that never reached its full potential. To understand the problem, we’ve got to start with one Yoon Suk-yeol, age sixty-four, hailing from the city of Seoul. For a little under three years now, Yoon has been South Korea’s president, and in that time, he has made South Korea’s defense industry into a crown jewel for the national economy.
Key Takeaways
- Situation Room 2.24.2025: Will South Korea Squander its Arms-Dealer Potential?
- In the last several years, South Korea has reaped the benefits of a transformation.
- Yoon claimed credit for a landmark arms deal with Poland in 2022, the country’s biggest ever, that saw the equivalent of 13.7 billion US dollars invested in a procurement deal for over 1,600 tanks and howitzers, plus almost fifty fighter jets.
- For anybody that somehow missed it, Yoon attempted a self-coup in late 2024, invoking martial law and trying to take full control over the country.
- Indeed, the immediate backlash to Yoon’s martial law declaration was felt across the South Korean defense industry.
Strategic Implications
Yoon claimed credit for a landmark arms deal with Poland in 2022, the country’s biggest ever, that saw the equivalent of 13.7 billion US dollars invested in a procurement deal for over 1,600 tanks and howitzers, plus almost fifty fighter jets. Since then, Yoon has pushed for as much expansion as possible in the South Korean defense industry, staring up a number of national programs and policies to that effect, and setting an ambitious goal to become a top-four global arms exporter by 2027, entering a group that today consists of the United States, France, Russia, and China in that order. As Yoon asked of his nation, Yoon received, and in 2024, South Korea rode a wave of global defense spending to exceed the equivalent of twenty billion US dollars for that year.
Although South Korea has yet to produce something as advanced as a next-generation fighter jet or as voluminous as Russia’s annual artillery shell production, it’s earned acclaim for its high volume of affordable kit, with high quality relative to its cost. For the defense world, South Korea has been a very pleasant surprise, and for Yoon, the country’s arms industry has been a crowning achievement. The problem, however, is that Yoon Suk-yeol is currently impeached and has had his powers suspended, incarcerated in Seoul while awaiting trial on charges of leading an insurrection, for which he risks either life imprisonment or even the death penalty.
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Risk and Uncertainty
For anybody that somehow missed it, Yoon attempted a self-coup in late 2024, invoking martial law and trying to take full control over the country. On the broad spectrum of authoritarian power grabs, it was really a pretty embarrassing affair for all involved, and it was ultimately resolved fast. We’ve covered the coup attempt in detail on this channel, with multiple episodes available if you’d like to learn more, but what we haven’t covered yet, are the implications for South Korea’s arms industry.
At the time of writing, Yoon Suk-yeol’s fate is as-yet unknown, but if he’s removed from office or chooses to resign, South Korea will head to a snap election within sixty days of his ouster. Most recent public polling shows members of Yoon’s political party, known as the People Power Party, losing by double-digit margins to the presumptive nominee from South Korea’s other major political group, the Democratic Party. That presumptive nominee, Lee Jae-myung, would become the new leader of a rapidly polarizing nation, and would face major pressure to distance his new government from Yoon-era policies moving forward.
Outlook
Indeed, the immediate backlash to Yoon’s martial law declaration was felt across the South Korean defense industry. In the days following the coup attempt, leaders from Kyrgyzstan and Sweden both cancelled plans to visit the nation, while Poland, still waiting on the export of eight hundred South Korean main battle tanks, opted to take a wait-and-see approach rather than pushing forward with their deal. International travel advisories against trips to South Korea didn’t help the situation, and nor did the long standoff that preceded Yoon’s eventual arrest.
Not even America’s then-Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin, kept his prior plans to visit. But as the crisis evolved, Lee Jae-myung made it clear that regardless of his other disagreements with Yoon Suk-yeol, he and his political allies would support South Korea’s new defense export industry for the long term. In fact, Lee has responded to Yoon’s impeachment, and the growing prospect of his own snap presidential run, with a shift in focus toward national security, even embracing what the outlet Korea Pro described as, quote, “traditionally conservative defense policies, including a push to grant independence to the Marine Corps and boost minitary experts.”
Lee has been embracing something he calls “black cat, white cat theory”—that, in his telling, it doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it manages to catch mice.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How did South Korea become one of the world’s top defense exporters?
South Korea combined its immense manufacturing capabilities with cutting-edge research and design to transform a modest arms industry into a top-ten global defense exporter, surpassing countries like Sweden, Brazil, Japan, and Turkey. President Yoon Suk-yeol championed the industry, setting an ambitious goal to rank among the top-four global arms exporters by 2027 and overseeing export revenues that exceeded the equivalent of twenty billion US dollars in 2024.
What was the significance of South Korea’s arms deal with Poland?
The 2022 deal with Poland was the largest arms deal in South Korean history, worth the equivalent of 13.7 billion US dollars. It covered a procurement of over 1,600 tanks and howitzers plus almost fifty fighter jets. Poland was still awaiting delivery of eight hundred main battle tanks when Yoon’s martial law crisis erupted, prompting Warsaw to take a wait-and-see approach rather than pushing forward with the contract.
How did Yoon Suk-yeol’s attempted self-coup affect the defense industry?
The immediate fallout was swift: leaders from Kyrgyzstan and Sweden cancelled plans to visit South Korea, Poland paused its pending arms deliveries, international travel advisories were issued against trips to the country, and even then-US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin cancelled his planned visit. The political instability created uncertainty around contracts and partnerships that South Korea’s defense sector had spent years building.
What is the risk to South Korea’s arms industry if Yoon is removed from office?
If Yoon is removed or resigns, South Korea would hold a snap election within sixty days. Polling shows Yoon’s People Power Party losing by double-digit margins to Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party. Lee would face pressure to distance his government from Yoon-era policies, raising questions about continuity for defense export programs.
Has South Korea’s opposition shown any support for continuing the defense export strategy?
Yes. Despite his other disagreements with Yoon, presumptive Democratic Party nominee Lee Jae-myung publicly stated that he and his allies would support South Korea’s defense export industry for the long term. Lee even shifted his campaign focus toward national security, embracing what Korea Pro described as traditionally conservative defense policies, and invoked his “black cat, white cat theory”—arguing it doesn’t matter which party governs as long as it achieves results.
Sources
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