US vs Chinese Aircraft Carriers: Who Will Rule the Waves? By Arnaldo Teodorani INTRO It’s been almost three centuries since the lyrics ‘Rule Britannia! Britannia, rule the waves!’ Were first sung. So, should everything go absolutely pear-shaped in the years to come, and should the US Navy and the PLAN come to blows in the Pacific, the situation will be as follows: On the American side, there will be seven aircraft carriers, of which five belong to the older Nimitz-class, and two to the more recent Ford-class.
Key Developments
And it’s been arguably some six decades since that concept stopped being true… The British Royal Navy was considered the largest and finest naval force in the first part of the 20th Century, but that mantle has now been inherited by the United States Navy. The only potentially serious threat to American vessels, the Soviet Navy, collapsed more than thirty years ago. The US Navy thus remains the only naval superpower on the planet.
Washington relies on its size, quality and Global reach to support diplomatic, economic and political interests worldwide. Sure, other powers are welcome to challenge this supremacy! Which the US Navy will probably dismiss with a laugh - as loud and sinister as the terrifying roar of their ‘capital ships’: 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, each carrying about 60 fighter jets.
Key Takeaways
- The US Navy operates 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, each carrying around 60 fighter jets, making it the only true global naval superpower with no rival in carrier tonnage or reach.
- China’s PLAN conducted its first large-scale joint carrier maneuvers in October 2024, signaling growing ambition to project power beyond the western Pacific and northern Indian Ocean.
- The PLAN’s two-track grand strategy — Near Seas Defence within the First Island Chain and Far Seas Protection beyond it — frames its carrier buildup as both a defensive and a power-projection tool.
- China operates the world’s largest navy by total vessel count with over 370 main surface and submarine vessels, but its carrier fleet and embarked air wings still trail US capabilities in experience and technology.
- Ford-class carriers hold a decisive advantage over China’s newest Fujian-class in nuclear propulsion and access to a global network of US and allied naval bases in the western Pacific.
According to Mahan, a nation should invest in the development of large and powerful ‘capital ships’, described by Prof Watts as ‘A navy’s most important ships, typically the largest and leading or primary ships in a naval fleet’ Earlier on, this term applied to battleships, but the mantle was taken up by aircraft carriers during WWII. The American Navy has been operating aircraft carriers since 1922, when the USS Langley was commissioned.
Strategic Implications
But is their current maritime supremacy destined to last? In October 2024, for the first time, China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN, conducted large-scale joint manoeuvres with two out of its three aircraft carriers, their embarked aircraft squadrons, as well as their escort cruisers and destroyers. Around the same time, Beijing’s latest and most advanced carrier, was returning from its fourth, successful sea-trial, during which it displayed some impressive capabilities.
Which left naval observers pondering … are we witnessing the birth of a new Global naval superpower, capable of projecting influence and might on par with the US Navy? And more specifically: will Chinese aircraft carriers pose a threat to their American counterparts, in case of a direct confrontation in the Pacific Ocean? [TITLE] Near and Far Seas The People’s Republic of China might have a huge landmass, but it also boasts a vast coastline of some 18,000 kilometres which require to be patrolled and defended.
And to really become a world-class force, Beijing intends for its Navy to be centred around Aircraft Carriers and Carrier Battle Groups, which will enable it to project power well-beyond the current confines of the western Pacific and northern Indian Oceans.
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Risk and Uncertainty
Moreover, the country heavily, and increasingly, depends on sea trade for the export of its goods. Naturally, over the past decades, the People’s Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN, had been growing into a large ‘blue water’ naval force to control adjacent seas, patrol vital maritime routes, intervene in the case of local unrest, and, more generally, project power to protect Beijing’s political and commercial interests beyond East Asia. This naval development mirrors China’s growing ambitions and desire for increased influence on the global stage - ambitions and desires which may collide with those of other Pacific powers, such as the US.
The PLAN’s long-term grand strategy was formulated in 2015, and it actually includes two strategies: ‘Near Seas Defence’ and ‘Far Seas Protection’. Near Seas Defence is a defensive strategy concerned with securing China’s maritime interests within the so-called ‘First Island Chain’, which connects the main Japanese archipelago, the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, the Philippines, and the Greater Sunda Islands. Far Seas Protection involves the conduct of operations beyond the First Island Chain.
Quoting again from Watts, ‘[This battle] would not only win command of the sea, but would also win the war’ Prof Watts argues that US Navy leadership heavily invested in Mahanian-influenced capital ships following their successes against the Imperial Japanese Navy in the Pacific during WWII.
Outlook
Theoretically this strategy may have Global scope, but in a 2019 whitepaper the PLAN acknowledged that their reach may be limited to the northern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific Ocean. Within these areas, the PLAN should be capable of conducting peacetime missions, such as international peacekeeping, disaster relief, anti-piracy operations, rescue operations, evacuation of endangered Chinese citizens abroad, and naval diplomacy. Of course, a Navy is expected to fight, by definition, and thus Far Seas Protection also encompasses wartime missions, such as defending vital sea lanes from foreign attacks, or striking high-value enemy targets.
Currently, China appears to be well-equipped to address those two strategic objectives, as the PLAN is the largest Navy in the world! According to the US Department of Defense, as of the end of 2024 Beijing could deploy more than 370 main surface and submarine vessels. In addition to these, the PLAN has developed a fleet of 60 to 80 patrol boats of the Houbei-class.
But the Ford will have two added advantages: first, as all US Navy ships in the Pacific, it will have access to a large infrastructure of American and allied naval bases, even in the western half of the Ocean; second, it is nuclear-powered.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many aircraft carriers does the US Navy currently operate compared to China?
The US Navy operates 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, of which five belong to the older Nimitz-class and two to the more advanced Ford-class, with the remainder being Nimitz-class vessels still in service. China’s PLAN operates three carriers as of 2024, the most advanced being the Fujian, which completed its fourth successful sea trial around the time the PLAN held its first large-scale joint carrier exercises. The US advantage goes beyond numbers, as its carriers carry around 60 fighter jets each and benefit from decades of operational experience and a vast network of allied bases across the Pacific.
What are China’s Near Seas Defence and Far Seas Protection strategies?
China’s 2015 grand naval strategy has two components. Near Seas Defence is a defensive posture focused on securing maritime interests within the First Island Chain — the arc connecting Japan, the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, the Philippines, and the Greater Sunda Islands. Far Seas Protection extends operations beyond that chain and encompasses both peacetime missions like anti-piracy and disaster relief and wartime missions such as defending vital sea lanes and striking high-value enemy targets. A 2019 PLAN whitepaper acknowledged that Far Seas operations are currently limited to the northern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific.
Why does China’s growing navy matter to the United States?
China’s naval buildup mirrors its broader ambitions for global influence, and those ambitions may collide with American power in the Pacific. The PLAN is already the world’s largest navy by total vessel count, with over 370 main surface and submarine vessels as of end-2024, plus 60 to 80 Houbei-class patrol boats. As China develops carrier battle groups capable of projecting power well beyond the western Pacific, it is working toward the ability to challenge American maritime supremacy in strategically vital waters — something no nation has been able to threaten since the Soviet Navy collapsed over thirty years ago.
What advantages does the Ford-class carrier have over China’s Fujian?
The Ford-class holds two significant advantages over the Fujian, China’s newest and most advanced carrier. First, Ford-class ships are nuclear-powered, giving them virtually unlimited range and the ability to operate for long periods without refueling. Second, the Ford and all US carriers in the Pacific have access to a large infrastructure of American and allied naval bases even in the western half of the ocean, allowing them to sustain operations and project power in ways that China’s carriers, operating farther from home, currently cannot match.
What would a direct confrontation between US and Chinese carriers look like?
In a direct Pacific confrontation, the US would likely deploy seven carriers — five Nimitz-class and two Ford-class — against China’s three carriers. Beyond the numerical difference, the US side would benefit from superior embarked air wings, nuclear propulsion, and decades of combat experience conducting carrier air operations. China’s escort fleet of cruisers and destroyers has been growing, and the PLAN’s October 2024 joint exercises with two carriers and their full escort groups showed improving coordination. Analysts note that geography and shore-based missile systems would also heavily influence any real conflict, meaning carriers would be just one piece of a much larger strategic equation.
Sources
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