Vladimir Putin's Time Is Running Out

Even for a leader as remote and fortified as Russia’s Vladimir Putin, it is the simple things that are supposed to make the year worth living: his favorite fish soup and Russian pelmeni dumplings, a game of fetch with the six dogs gifted to him by various world leaders, and, once a year, a massive military parade. On the ninth of May each year, Putin and a wide array of world leaders travel to Red Square to commemorate Russia’s World War II victory on Europe’s Eastern Front, as thousands of cadets, hundreds of vehicles, and dozens of thundering aircraft pass by.

But this year, Putin’s big parade is set to be a disappointment: no military equipment, hardly any foreign leaders, all conducted under a telecommunications blackout, for one simple reason. Try as it might, Russia’s military has shown that it cannot reliably stop Ukrainian drones from raining fire down on Moscow itself.

Putin will have to endure the ninth of May with a strange melancholy. As frustrating as the day’s affairs might be, they are only a small fraction of the mounting problems he faces. Russian insiders are increasingly sounding the alarm to Western onlookers: Putin has become isolated, the political elite is losing faith, the Ukrainians are breaking through, the Russian people are losing patience, and Russia’s international position is slipping from the Kremlin’s control. According to some sources, Putin is convinced he is at risk of being overthrown in a palace coup, or even assassinated by his own people.

If you are hearing all this, rolling your eyes, and remembering the other rounds of Putin speculation that went nowhere, that reaction is understandable. But there is reason to believe that this time might be different.

A Parade in the Shadow of Drones

The annual May 9 Victory Day spectacle has long been the centerpiece of Putin’s public calendar — a display of Russian military might and a magnet for visiting heads of state. In 2026, it is set to be a mere shadow of the usual festivities. There will be no military equipment on display, hardly any foreign leaders in attendance, and the whole affair will unfold under a telecommunications blackout.

The reason is uncomfortably simple. Despite every effort, Russia’s military has demonstrated that it cannot reliably stop Ukrainian drones from reaching Moscow itself. The threats Moscow faces on Victory Day are a symptom of a far broader crisis pressing in on the Kremlin from every direction.

Russia’s Victory Day celebrations were scheduled for May 9, 2026, and in the days beforehand no one could say with certainty what the day would bring. The warning to observers was straightforward: keep an eye on Russia that day.

The Elite Begins to Fracture

The threats around Victory Day are one symptom among many, but the biggest problem Putin faces is something else entirely. According to a growing list of Western news reports — informed by Russian insiders, corroborated by Russian exile outlets and European intelligence — the ultra-rich Russian elite is beginning to fracture in its support for Putin’s leadership.

The grievances driving the split have been festering for a long time: international sanctions and other forms of pressure, economic malaise, and a lack of faith in Putin’s military advisers and decision-making. But the trouble intensified in late March, when a lawyer and staunchly pro-Putin Kremlin insider named Ilya Remeslo appeared to snap.

In a long post uploaded to Telegram titled “Five reasons why I stopped supporting Vladimir Putin,” Remeslo criticized Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, lambasted the Kremlin for the economic damage inflicted on Russia and its people, and fiercely condemned mounting restrictions on the internet and other digital freedoms. His bottom line was blunt: “Vladimir Putin is not a legitimate president. Vladimir Putin must resign and be brought to trial as a war criminal and thief.”

The Curious Survival of Ilya Remeslo

For anyone who follows internal affairs in Putin’s Russia, the only unusual thing about the Kremlin’s reaction is what did not happen. Remeslo did not fall from a fifteenth-story window, nor die of any of the other suspiciously convenient fates that have befallen prominent critics of the Russian state. What he did receive was a stay of a few weeks in a psychiatric facility. Now he is out — and he does not appear to have learned his lesson.

According to Russia expert Catherine Belton, Remeslo is just one member of a growing faction inside the Kremlin, led by the chief of Russian intelligence and Putin’s designated domestic-policy figure, Sergei Kiriyenko. He, along with a growing list of allies from the Kremlin and the oligarchy, are losing faith in Putin’s leadership. As Remeslo himself put it: “It’s essentially similar to what happened at the end of the Soviet Union, when people hated the Party and did everything for it to end. Putin’s Russia will follow the same path.”

A President in the Bunker

According to a pair of new reports — one from the Financial Times, another from the Russian exile outlet iStories — Putin is keenly aware of the troubles closing in on him, and he is not taking it well. Even in the best of times, Putin has long been known for his paranoia. Now, he and his bodyguards have taken his security to another level.

Per the Financial Times, Putin’s staff are under constant scrutiny. They live with surveillance in their own homes, they cannot use public transit, and they are not allowed to bring mobile phones or other internet-enabled devices anywhere near Putin himself. The Russian leader now lives primarily out of underground bunkers, moving across the country frequently and avoiding his residences in Moscow and the northwest. For the most part, he meets only with a small handful of high officials — all with portfolios connected to the invasion of Ukraine — while many of his other deputies can expect to go months without seeing him.

His fears are motivated partly by the knowledge that Ukrainian drones are reaching further and more frequently into Russian territory. But the reports indicate he is very concerned about something closer to home: the possibility of an internal coup orchestrated by his underlings, or an attempt on his life.

The Public Joins In

Ilya Remeslo is far from the only Russian who has begun to criticize Putin’s rule. Ordinary Russian citizens are doing the same, at an unprecedented scale, and with an unprecedented level of honesty about the troubles they face.

The one who has had the greatest impact so far is Viktoria Bonya, a Monaco-based influencer who published an eighteen-minute address to Putin in April, criticizing many elements of his leadership. Hundreds of Russian citizens have since followed her example — complaining about Ukrainian attacks on their cities, sweeping internet shutdowns, economic malaise, and a long list of grievances that, in normal times, they would not risk mentioning online. Their complaints have grown so loud that the Kremlin has had to acknowledge them repeatedly. Even Putin has given voice to public frustrations over internet blackouts, though he blamed his own underlings for failing to explain the situation properly.

Everywhere in Russia, and especially in the major cities, signs of Putin’s paranoia and his attempts to assert control are more obvious than ever. Internal security personnel are increasingly visible, particularly in Moscow, as checkpoints and random detentions become commonplace.

Internet Blackouts and the Insulation of the Cities

Russia’s internet services have been subject to frequent, sometimes extended blackouts, leaving people unable to call or message their loved ones, access their finances or healthcare, or receive even state-approved news of the outside world, for days at a time. In part, those measures are intended to counter Ukrainian sabotage or drone infiltration. But they appear to be focused primarily on Russian citizens — the digital shutdowns especially.

Since the start of the full-scale Ukraine invasion, Putin and his inner circle have been very careful to ensure that wealthier, more urban Russian citizens — especially ethnic Russians — are insulated from the costs of war. But that is becoming harder to manage. As the war’s costs reach the cities more and more often, restricting citizens’ ability to discuss the situation may be the next-best thing to shielding them from it.

Ukraine’s Deep Strikes Find Their Mark

The costs of war are Ukraine’s purview, and in the spring of 2026, Ukrainian forces have captured serious momentum. The front line is hardly moving — Russia is losing just a hair more territory than it gains, month over month, and neither side is taking much ground at all, while Russian forces have managed to pressure Ukraine’s eastern fortress belt. But the relatively stagnant front masks a deeper problem.

Ukraine’s drone technology has recently gotten much better, and it is being used to strike deep into Russia’s back lines, disrupting Moscow so completely that its feared spring offensive has fallen flat. Closer to the front, Russia is throwing away incredible numbers of lives for even less territorial gain than usual.

Worse for the Kremlin, Kyiv has been able to strike deep into Russian territory, basically at will, against key economic targets. Starting in mid-April and continuing through early May, Ukraine hit the vital oil-export facility of Tuapse on the Black Sea in four separate waves of attacks, severely damaging the refinery there. The situation is similar in Novorossiysk, also on the Black Sea. Ukrainian drones have started to hammer Russian export facilities on the Baltic Sea, especially in Primorsk, and on Tuesday, the fifth of May, they hit the second-largest refinery in Russia, in the town of Kirishi.

Rival Ceasefires and a Strike on Moscow

Just a day before the Kirishi strike, Ukraine demonstrated its continued ability to reach the Russian capital, hitting a residential high-rise building in what should be one of Russia’s best-defended areas. That strike came just days before Moscow’s Victory Day parade, and the message to Putin was unmistakable.

The diplomatic theater around the holiday was equally pointed. Putin declared a unilateral ceasefire for the eighth and ninth of May, trying to pressure Ukraine into agreeing. Ukraine responded by declaring its own unilateral ceasefire on the fifth and sixth — which Russia promptly violated by attacking a kindergarten. That violation handed Kyiv all the rhetorical ammunition it needed to disregard Russia’s ceasefire in turn.

The Oil Lifeline That Never Came

Ukraine’s strikes against energy infrastructure have taken away what was supposed to be a critical lifeline for Putin. The plan had been to use the war in Iran, and the subsequent shock to global energy markets, as leverage to get Western countries to lift sanctions and allow badly needed Russian oil back onto the markets.

But even though Western nations have begrudgingly agreed to receive Russian oil, Russia now cannot export the stuff — at least not from the half-dozen major terminals Ukraine has been blowing up at will. Even in ideal conditions, Russia’s oil exports would have provided only a temporary bump for its economy. Now, that bump is not going to happen.

While Russia is not exactly a reliable reporter of its own economic conditions, outside evaluations suggest inflation has started to spiral as worker shortages continue to intensify. In a rare show of capitulation to public anger, even official Russian pollsters have acknowledged a rapid drop in Putin’s approvals — a decline of nearly ten points between February and April, according to Russia’s state polling agency.

A Crumbling Position Abroad

Internationally, despite the usual bluster and bravado, Putin appears aware that Russia’s position is deteriorating fast. According to the Financial Times report, the United States’ capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro made a real impression, forcing Putin to rethink what might be possible for his adversaries abroad.

Key Russian allies are facing existential crises. There is a blockade and possibly an imminent act of American regime change in Cuba, and a full-scale war in the Middle East that will leave Iran hobbled for decades. Nations once partial to Russia, especially in the Persian Gulf, are now relying on Ukraine to defend themselves against a Russian ally.

In Europe, Putin has lost the option to lean on Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán, who was unceremoniously ejected from office a few weeks ago. Even in Africa things are worsening: after years of direct support through its paramilitaries, Russian ally Mali has been devastated by a series of coordinated insurgent attacks, and the nation’s leader may soon drop Russian support to welcome an alternative from Turkey. China remains a partner for now, relatively speaking — but both Russia and China know that, in the long term, Russia is not a critical ally for China.

It is on the menu.

No Silver Bullet

All of this begs the question: what is going to break? What is Putin’s ultimate pressure point in his moment of weakness? An educated guess suggests it will not be so simple. In these conversations, analysts and onlookers alike tend to search for the silver bullet — the one perfect weapon that delivers a final, decisive blow and ends the Putin era outright. The real world tends to be more complicated.

While Putin’s time at the top could conceivably be ended by a heart attack or a rogue bodyguard, many similarly powerful leaders have been brought down by an accumulation of problems that interact in unpredictable ways. An elite power struggle here coincides with a natural disaster or a provincial crisis there, at a time when a war has gone on too long, inflation is too high, or turmoil abroad has spread to the home front. Instead of a silver bullet, such leaders are often felled by something that seems as if it should be relatively small, or that mirrors a problem they have handled successfully before.

This is precisely the kind of threat Putin seems to face now. This is not 2023, with a rogue mercenary chief — a single identifiable threat — barreling down on Moscow from the south. Instead, there are simply too many factors in play, too many things going wrong at once.

The Broken Social Contract

Even a crisis of many fronts is not, by itself, unique. Putin has faced situations before when the whole world seemed to be coming down around him, and he came out on top. But on all those earlier occasions, Putin had a critical edge: the trust of the Russian elite, the Russian military, and ordinary Russian people that he would find a way to come through. This time, that trust does not seem to be there.

As Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, explained on X: “Until recently, many assumed that Putin had a plan, even if it was simply to keep the war going. Now there are growing doubts as to whether such a plan exists. And even if it does, it may imply political or physical ruin for some.”

Putin’s social contract with Russia has started to unravel in a way he has never faced before. Russia’s oligarch class was promised a steady hand, consistent profits, and the protection of the Russian state — as long as they stayed in their lane and avoided politics. Ordinary citizens were promised relative safety at home, relative economic stability, and a government that did not stick its nose into their business — as long as they did not stick their noses into the government’s. Both the oligarchy and ordinary people have kept up their end of the bargain.

They have avoided getting in Putin’s way over the war and done as they were asked. But Putin has not delivered on his part of the deal.

Wishful Thinking, or a Turning Point?

It is worth acknowledging the other side of things. Across the Western world there is, quite understandably, substantial interest in seeing the end of Vladimir Putin. He has waged a devastating, entirely unjustified war against Ukraine; he is a Machiavellian manipulator on the global stage; and, as of now, he seems untouchable. So when rumors emerge — about his health, his palace intrigue, his vulnerability to Ukrainian strikes, or anything else — those rumors tend to take on a life of their own.

The world has been through these rounds of speculation before, and the one thing all the prior speculation shares is that it came to nothing. Putin either conquered whatever demons he was dealing with, or there were no demons to face in the first place. In a couple of years’ time, this conversation may look like mere wishful thinking.

But if there was ever a sign to be confident that something is changing, it is precisely what we see now: not a breakdown in security, and not trouble in the economy, but Russian citizens choosing to ignore Putin’s social contract — because they believe the contract has been broken, and because they do not feel they were the ones who broke it. Watching Putin’s authoritarianism, his warmongering, or his geopolitical brinksmanship from the outside, it can be easy to forget that his place at the head of the Russian Federation has always been a marriage of convenience. If things continue as they are, Putin may soon transform into an inconvenience — and if that happens, there is no telling how quickly Russia might throw him away.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Russia’s 2026 Victory Day parade being scaled back so dramatically?

The May 9 parade is set to feature no military equipment, hardly any foreign leaders, and a telecommunications blackout, because Russia’s military has shown it cannot reliably stop Ukrainian drones from reaching Moscow itself. The reduced parade is treated as a symptom of the broader threats closing in on the Kremlin from every direction.

Who is Ilya Remeslo and why does his break with Putin matter?

Remeslo is a lawyer and formerly staunchly pro-Putin Kremlin insider who, in late March, posted a Telegram message titled “Five reasons why I stopped supporting Vladimir Putin,” calling Putin an illegitimate president who should resign and be tried as a war criminal and thief. According to Russia expert Catherine Belton, he is one member of a growing Kremlin faction — led by intelligence chief Sergei Kiriyenko — that is losing faith in Putin’s leadership. Notably, he was sent to a psychiatric facility rather than killed, and has since continued his criticism.

How is Ukraine pressuring Russia beyond the front line?

Ukraine’s improved drone technology has stalled Russia’s feared spring offensive and enabled deep strikes on economic targets: the Tuapse oil-export facility hit in four waves from mid-April through early May, Novorossiysk, Baltic facilities at Primorsk, and the Kirishi refinery — Russia’s second-largest — struck on May 5. A day earlier, Ukraine hit a residential high-rise in Moscow, sending an unmistakable message just before Victory Day.

Why did Russia’s hoped-for oil-export lifeline fail?

Russia had planned to use the war in Iran and the resulting energy-market shock to pressure Western nations into lifting sanctions and accepting Russian oil. Western nations begrudgingly agreed, but Ukraine’s strikes disabled the half-dozen major export terminals Russia would have used. Outside evaluations suggest inflation is spiraling and worker shortages intensifying, while state pollsters acknowledge Putin’s approval dropped nearly ten points between February and April.

What is the “social contract” the article says is breaking, and why does it matter?

Under Putin, Russia’s oligarchs were promised steady profits and state protection in exchange for staying out of politics, and ordinary citizens were promised relative safety and economic stability in exchange for not interfering with the government. Both groups have kept their side of the bargain, but Putin has not delivered on his. The argument is that ordinary Russians choosing to publicly ignore that contract — as seen in the unprecedented scale of online complaints — is the clearest sign that something may genuinely be changing this time.

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