Will Turkey and Greece Go to War Over the Aegean?

It is a conflict that has plagued the region for generations, rooted in territorial disputes, historic rivalries, access to resources, and much more. Time and time again, Turkey and Greece have failed to find solutions to their many disagreements, and on more than one occasion, have come close to the brink of war, with Turkey going as far as to threaten Athens with missile strikes in recent months. Despite both nations being members of NATO, armed confrontation seems an increasingly likely scenario. The causes of this tension run deep, and the possibility of it erupting into Europe’s next war deserves serious examination.

Centuries of Conflict: From Ottoman Occupation to the Cold War

The first issue dividing the two nations is a shared history of tension and war going back hundreds of years. Greece was occupied by the Ottoman Empire in the 15th century, and was kept under their rule for more than 400 years. Finally, in the early 1800s, Greece rose up in a nation-wide revolution, which later became known as the Greek War of Independence. 150,000 people lost their lives in the bloody revolt, but Greece emerged victorious, and succeeded in regaining its sovereignty.

The next century saw several more skirmishes and wars fought between the two, such as the Greco-Turkish War of 1897, the Balkan Wars, World War 1, and the Greco-Turkish War of 1919-1922. Long story short, each of these wars resulted in one nation taking or losing a little bit of territory, usually claimed by either side to be rightfully theirs. During this time, the Ottoman Empire initiated the systematic killing of Christian Ottoman Greeks, killing at least 300,000 and causing many more to flee the nation.

The Greek Genocide has struggled to gain recognition to this day, and is denied by many in modern Turkey, further exacerbating the subject. But then came the Cold War, when, despite the intense animosity between the two, Greece and Turkey were supposed to be allies. Greece was a founding member of NATO, with Turkey joining in 1952, and so despite their differences, they were expected to unite against the common threat of communism and the Soviet Union.

But this didn’t exactly work out like everyone hoped it would, largely thanks to a little disagreement about Cyprus.

The Cyprus Issue: Invasion, Partition, and a Frozen Conflict

Cyprus is an island located in the eastern Mediterranean, right underneath Turkey. A former British colony, it gained independence in 1960, and set up its own government. But, because 77% of its population was Greek, and the remainder almost all Turk, trouble was right around the corner as each side vied for political control of the strategically located island.

In 1964, Turkey threatened Cyprus with an invasion, only called off when the United States threatened repercussions. Greece continued to wish for Cyprus to be “reunited with the motherland,” and attempted to force this with a coup d’etat in 1974, in which Greek Cypriots took control of the government with the help of the Greek dictator. Turkey responded by invading the northern half of the island, and by the time everything cooled down, Turkey had occupied a significant portion of northern Cyprus.

Since then, the island has been roughly split in two. The southern end is still the Republic of Cyprus, the original nation and even a member of the European Union. Separated from the south by a UN buffer zone, the northern portion is known as the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, a country recognized only by Turkey.

The situation has remained frozen ever since, and the Cyprus Issue continues to divide Greece and Turkey and drive tension and disagreement. However, Cyprus is far from the only island causing conflict in the 21st century.

Territorial Waters and the Battle for the Aegean Sea

It would be an understatement to say that the Aegean Sea is full of Greek islands. Greece has more than 200 islands in the area, but Greek ownership of some is disputed by Turkey. One example is the islands of Imia, or Kardak as they are known in Turkish.

These are uninhabited, but their location so close to the Turkish mainland makes Ankara nervous. They are one of several islets that, despite being claimed entirely by Greece, are regarded as “grey zones” by Turkey. And this only scratches the surface of the issue.

Aside from some islands being outright claimed by Turkey, there is also the issue of Greece’s territorial waters and exclusive economic zones. According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, or UNCLOS, each nation currently has the right to extend their territorial waters 12 nautical miles from their coastline. Specified in UNCLOS are archipelagic waters, in which it is stated that nations have the right to extend such territorial waters from their outermost islands.

It is important to note that Turkey is not a signatory to UNCLOS, and therefore is not technically bound by its laws, but Greece argues that they should follow them regardless, as is customary. Currently, Greece claims 6 nautical miles off of each island, and asserts its right to one day extend this to the allowed 12. The likely reason they have yet to do so is because Turkey has stated that if Greece accepts the 12 nautical mile limit, they will resort to military action.

Turkey also resents the use of islands as an extension of territorial waters, and would prefer if Greece’s 6 nautical miles only extended from the mainland. From a neutral perspective, Greece believes that they have the right to much of the Aegean Sea because they control most of the islands within it, and believes that Turkey wants to unfairly take half of this. Granting Turkey half of the Aegean would also isolate many Greek islands in foreign waters, leaving them sitting ducks if Turkey ever feels like taking them.

On the Turkish side, they view it as unfair that Greece’s territorial waters are allowed to extend so far. This is a fairly big issue for Turkey because Greece has many islands that are located very close to the Turkish coast, severely limiting Turkey’s space in the sea. This is especially frustrating when many of the islands are uninhabited.

The issue of territorial waters has only grown more intense as reserves of resources like natural gas and oil have been discovered under the seabed. In 2019, Turkey made a surprise deal with Libya, splitting up much of the Aegean for their own exclusive economic zones, hoping to cash in on the oil drilling potential. The boundaries drawn up in the deal not only ignored many of Greece’s smaller islets, but also huge islands like Crete, and was therefore condemned by the international community.

In response, Greece signed a maritime deal with Italy, and another one with Egypt, which was referred to by Turkish President Erdogan as “useless.” Later in 2019, Erdogan was photographed next to a map of Turkey showing nearly half of the Aegean Sea as Turkish waters, with the big title, “Turkey’s Blue Homeland,” and tensions have only risen since.

Dangerous Skies: Airspace Violations and Deadly Dogfights

The most concerning part of the conflict between Turkey and Greece is not the dispute over water or uninhabited islands, but the dangerous games played by each side that have led to the deaths of many pilots. Turkey refuses to acknowledge much of Greece’s airspace, similar to the way they reject Greek claims to territorial waters, and regularly violates this airspace with fighter jet flyovers. Normally these violations are performed by Turkish F-16s and F-4s, which are routinely intercepted by Greek F-16s or Mirage 2000s.

This type of interception happens all the time around the world — look no further than Russian aircraft trying their luck near Alaska — but the Aegean air disputes are unique because the two sides actively engage in dogfights with each other. Because they are not at war, they do not actually shoot at each other, but they do pull off dangerous maneuvers to scare the enemy pilot, and will even do so at dangerously low altitudes. In 1992, a Greek fighter was dogfighting two Turkish fighters and ended up crashing into the Aegean, killing the pilot.

In 1995, two different Turkish fighters crashed into the sea, resulting in the death of one of the pilots. Just a year later, after a long dogfight between four fighter jets, one of the Greek jets reportedly downed its Turkish opponent with an air-to-air missile, which killed the pilot but allowed the co-pilot to eject. This has never been confirmed, but it is fairly clear that Greece’s claim of mechanical failure is not enough to explain the situation.

Later, in 2006, the dueling jets crashed directly into each other. Turkey also regularly sends fighters to harass helicopters or jets carrying Greek government personnel, and have done their best to intimidate the Prime Minister on several occasions. This is especially dangerous because a single tragic mistake in one of these situations could quickly escalate into war if an important figure were to be harmed or even killed.

The flyovers originally stuck to the so-called “grey zones,” but over the years have become bolder in their trips. The 2010s were the first time they flew over the island of Rhodes, and in 2020 they even flew over the Greek mainland for the first time, sparking outrage.

Near Misses: The 1996 Imia Crisis and Erdogan’s Missile Threats

Looking at all of this, it might seem like war is ready to break out at any moment. And, on a few occasions, it almost has. Military buildups have had the world holding its breath several times in the last few decades.

In 1996, Greek special forces landed on the Imia Islets, which are one of those “grey areas” that Turkey claims. Turkey also holds that many of these islands need to be demilitarized because of their proximity, so when the alarm was sounded that Greek forces were on Imia, Turkey moved to respond. Turkish armored units moved to the buffer zone in Cyprus, and the Cypriot National Guard was readied for combat.

The Greek SEALs confirmed that Turkish forces had arrived at their location, and just when it seemed like the tension would burst, frantic negotiations with the United States as a mediator saw the two agree to withdraw their forces. However, the helicopter that was sent to pick up the SEALs did not make it home, crashing into the sea, killing three on board. Many speculate that the helicopter was shot down by a Turkish ship acting on their own accord, but was covered up by both sides to avoid escalation.

There is not much evidence to back this up though, and it is not like either side has not had their fair share of crashing aircraft in the sea. One of the most notable threats from the whole ordeal came in December 2022, when Erdogan directly threatened the Greek capital. Noticing that Greece was aiming to purchase new military equipment from the United States, he stated: “If you don’t stay calm, if you try to buy something from here and there, from America to the islands, a country like Turkey will not be a bystander.

It has to do something. Now we have started to make our own missiles. Of course, this production scares the Greeks.

When you say ‘Tayfun,’ the Greeks get scared and say, ‘It will hit Athens.’ … Well, of course it will.” This is far from the only recent threat.

Erdogan maintains that Greece is militarizing its many islands, and, in effect, militarizing the Aegean, and says that if Athens continues to push its luck, Turkey is prepared to launch an offensive at a moment’s notice.

Military Balance and the Specter of a NATO-Member War

So what would happen if the two countries actually did go to war? On the Global Power Index, Greece ranks at number 30, with 130,000 active personnel and 220,000 reserve personnel. Turkey takes the advantage with the global firepower rank of 11, 425,000 active personnel, and 200,000 reserve personnel.

In the air, Turkey has almost twice the total aircraft that Greece has, including transport, training, and reconnaissance planes, and has about twice as many helicopters, with nearly 500. However, the two have almost equal numbers of fighter jets, right around 200 each. The navies are similar in strength, with neither side having a major advantage, as they have similar numbers of frigates, patrol vessels, and submarines, and neither has any aircraft carriers.

The frontlines for land battles would take place in Thrace, where Turkey meets continental Europe, as well as on Cyprus. In almost any land battle, Turkey would be at an advantage, with significantly higher numbers of tanks, self-propelled artillery, and armored vehicles. Overall, Turkey possesses a clear advantage militarily, but it is unlikely that an Aegean War would be a strict one-on-one brawl between the two sides.

With both members of NATO, the defensive alliance would be thrown into completely uncharted territory on how to respond, and there are many different options. If NATO determines that Turkey was the undisputed aggressor, it is possible that NATO would intervene to defend Greek territory. This would mean that within just a few weeks, Turkey could face crippling airstrikes from American stealth bombers, and have their entire military crumble into a logistic nightmare as the full force of the alliance shows up.

However, if the cause is not quite so clear, NATO may not be able to choose a side, and may instead try to enforce a ceasefire. Another very possible outcome is that NATO recognizes Turkey as the sole aggressor, but hesitates to intervene out of fear of losing Turkey from the alliance. As it stands, Turkey is one of the most powerful forces in all of NATO, and, on top of its military power, it also has an unmatched geographic location on the Bosporus Strait, effectively giving NATO control over the entrance to the Black Sea and severely limiting Russia’s naval capabilities.

With this in mind, if the war between Turkey and Greece does not appear to be too serious, NATO may choose to appease Turkey instead, as the alternative might not be worth losing such a strategic partner.

Nationalism, Rhetoric, and the Risk of Miscalculation

From another perspective, NATO may stand defiant on the side of Greece, as Turkey, despite its importance, is also among the most problematic members, and was at the time blocking Sweden’s request to join. A 21st century Greco-Turkish War may simply mean the end of Turkey’s membership in NATO, and would certainly be the end of their ambitions to join the European Union. But these consequences may not be enough to deter Erdogan from starting a war.

Highly nationalist ideology has been pushed by him for years now, especially around election times, and heated nationalism has always been known to push aside logic and long-term planning. This is especially dangerous when combined with Turkey’s clear advantage in a head-to-head fight. With Erdogan’s rhetoric of calling the United States more of an opponent and less of an ally, he may see the loss of the alliance as a heartbreaking, but necessary step toward increased Turkish security.

Though it is important to note that the majority of both Turks and Greeks hold no personal resentment toward the other side, there is legitimate palpable tension even among the general population. Some reporters have likened the rhetoric in current Turkish media to the way American media talked about Iraq in the early 2000s, calling it a threat to security in the region, and viewing it as an inferior opponent. In the same way that the United States was so confident that a war with Iraq would be swift and decisive, there is a general perception in Turkish media that a war with Greece would be lopsided and quick.

But if there is anything recently learned about large-scale conventional wars in the 21st century, they are anything but quick and easy. A war over the Aegean Sea would certainly lead to the deaths of thousands and irreparably damage international relations. And with the clear potential for the conflict to pull in allies on both sides, it is really for the best that the conflict in the Aegean remains purely rhetorical.