Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa’s aggressive crackdown on gangs, launched in January 2024, initially showed promise with a decline in murders and prison massacres. However, nine months later, the strategy’s effectiveness is being questioned as homicides surge, and the country teeters on the brink of deeper violence and chaos.
Ecuador’s Bold Gamble Against Gang Violence
In January 2024, Ecuador declared an ‘internal armed conflict’ and launched a militarized approach to combat cartels and street gangs. The government, led by President Daniel Noboa, declared states of emergency, deployed the military to prisons, and redesignated multiple gangs as terrorist organizations. This bold move initially yielded positive results, with murders falling and prison massacres declining.
The crackdown also led to the arrest of 60,000 suspected criminals and the seizure of nearly a third more illicit drugs than in 2023. When put to a referendum in April, Ecuadorians enthusiastically endorsed Noboa’s approach. Following the declaration of an “internal armed conflict” in January of 2024, Ecuador threw everything it had at the cartels and street gangs that had brought the nation to the precipice.
Key Takeaways
- Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa declared an ‘internal armed conflict’ in January 2024, deploying the military to prisons and arresting 60,000 suspected criminals, which initially reduced murders and prison massacres.
- Despite the crackdown, Ecuador recorded 39 slayings per 100,000 people in 2024 — one of the highest rates in the region — and the port city of Durán became one of the most dangerous cities in the world.
- In January 2025, Ecuador recorded 750 murders, exceeding the total homicides in New York state — which has a similar population — for the entire year of 2023.
- The disintegration of gang structures created turf wars and splinter groups like LobosSaoBox, driving up violence in new areas and undermining the crackdown’s gains.
- Over 80,000 Ecuadorians were internally displaced and around 122,000 were detained crossing the US southern border, illustrating the human cost of the ongoing crisis.
January 2024 - which, remember, saw the declaration of an internal armed conflict - recorded 504 killings. González used a speech that evening to directly blame the war on gangs for his poor showing, telling her supporters: “We do not want a state of war, we want the construction of peace.” But while González credited the internal armed conflict itself with boosting her chances, the reality is likely a little different.
The Unintended Consequences of Ecuador’s Crackdown
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However, as the months passed, the reality on the ground began to change. Despite the initial decline in homicides, Ecuador still recorded 39 slayings per 100,000 people in 2024, making it one of the most violent countries in the region. The port city of Durán suffered more killings in 2024 than at any point in its modern history, earning it a spot as one of the most-dangerous cities in the world.
Furthermore, the slight dip in overall homicides was accompanied by a rise in kidnappings and extortion. The regions most affected by violence saw Noboa badly underperforming in the recent election, with many Ecuadorians expressing dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of security. To put that in perspective, even with the crackdown, Ecuador still saw way more murders per 100,000 than a typical year in Mexico or Venezuela.
Still, it’s clear that something will have to change if Ecuador wants to get back on track.
Assessing the Effectiveness of Ecuador’s Anti-Gang Strategy
The recent surge in homicides has raised questions about the effectiveness of Ecuador’s anti-gang strategy. In January 2025, there were 750 murders in Ecuador, a staggering number that exceeds the total homicides in New York state, which has a similar population, in all of 2023. This spike in violence has led to concerns that the government’s approach may not be working as intended.
The Norwegian Refugee Council describes life in areas under cartel domination as dire, with daily murders, extortion, and children at risk of recruitment into criminal groups. The situation has also led to a significant displacement of people, with over 80,000 internally displaced and around 122,000 Ecuadorians detained crossing the southern US border last year. Across the whole of 2023 - the most-recent year we have complete data for - the state of New York, which has a similar population to Ecuador, saw just 595 homicides.
The Future of Gang Violence in Ecuador and Beyond
As Ecuador struggles to contain gang violence, the country’s experience offers valuable lessons for other nations grappling with similar challenges. The disintegration of gang structures, turf wars between rival gangs, and questions about resource allocation have all contributed to the current crisis. To get back on track, Ecuador will need to reassess its strategy and address the root causes of gang violence.
This may involve a more nuanced approach that balances security measures with social and economic interventions. The outcome of Ecuador’s war on gangs will have significant implications for regional gang dynamics and the country’s future stability. This competition has led to the formation of splinter groups, such as LobosSaoBox, which attack former allies with extreme brutality.”
At the same time, turf wars between rival gangs have pushed up rates of violence in other areas. The same report noted that: “Many prosecutors and judges, including those at risk, lack basic security.” Which is a major problem in a country where at least fifteen members of the judiciary have been assassinated by criminal groups since 2022.
Simon Whistler
Simon Whistler is one of YouTube's most prolific educational creators. WarFronts is his deep dive into military history and conflict analysis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Ecuador’s ‘internal armed conflict’ declaration involve?
In January 2024, President Daniel Noboa declared an ‘internal armed conflict’ against gangs and cartels. The government deployed the military to prisons, declared states of emergency, redesignated multiple gangs as terrorist organizations, arrested 60,000 suspected criminals, and seized nearly a third more illicit drugs than in 2023. Ecuadorians endorsed this approach in an April 2024 referendum.
Did Ecuador’s crackdown actually reduce violence?
The initial phase did produce results: murders and prison massacres declined in early 2024. However, by the end of the year Ecuador still recorded 39 slayings per 100,000 people, making it one of the most violent countries in the region. The slight dip in homicides was accompanied by rising kidnappings and extortion, and the gains quickly unraveled.
How bad did the violence get by early 2025?
In January 2025 alone, Ecuador recorded 750 murders — a figure that exceeds the total homicides recorded in New York state, which has a similar population, across the entire year of 2023. The port city of Durán suffered more killings in 2024 than at any point in its modern history.
Why did gang violence escalate despite the crackdown?
Experts point to the disintegration of large gang structures into competing splinter groups. Turf wars between rival gangs pushed violence into new areas, while groups like LobosSaoBox attacked former allies with extreme brutality. Courts and prosecutors also lacked basic security, with at least fifteen judiciary members assassinated by criminal groups since 2022.
What has been the human toll beyond the homicide rate?
Beyond the killings, the Norwegian Refugee Council describes daily murder, extortion, and children at risk of criminal recruitment in cartel-dominated areas. More than 80,000 Ecuadorians have been internally displaced, and around 122,000 were detained crossing the US southern border, reflecting the depth of the humanitarian crisis driven by the ongoing violence.
Sources
- https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/09/world/americas/ecuador-president-election-2025.html
- https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4mnznmwlvo
- https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2025/02/06/ecuador-chooses-a-leader-amid-murder-blackouts-and-stagnation
- https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/seguridad/muertes-violentas-de-enero-2025-en-ecuador-superan-cifras-de-inicio-de-anos-anteriores-nota/
- https://insightcrime.org/news/ecuador-gang-dynamic-feeds-record-homicides/
- https://insightcrime.org/news/ecuadors-lobos-turn-el-oro-province-into-battleground/
- https://www.nrc.no/news/2025/january/ecuador-ongoing-violence-displacing-thousands
- https://americasquarterly.org/article/ecuador-a-2025-snapshot/
- https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/02/09/elections-in-ecuador-amid-an-explosion-of-violence_6737950_4.html
- https://insightcrime.org/news/organized-crime-agenda-ecuadors-presidential-elections/
- https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/01/17/ecuador-needs-different-approach-fighting-organized-crime
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