Geopolitics & Strategy
Alliance dynamics, power competition, sanctions, and strategic posture.
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Putin's Desperation Moves: Symbolic Strikes on Kyiv and the Latvia Gambit
With Ukraine ascendant in drone warfare, a cornered Putin weighs two high-risk gambits—decapitation strikes on Kyiv and a probing attack on NATO's Latvia.
Can Japan Stop China? Tokyo's Remilitarization and the Race for Asia
As Washington's commitment to Asia wavers, Japan under PM Takaichi is rearming and building a regional coalition to check Chinese dominance. Can it work?
Who Russia Invades Next: The Case Against Armenia and Georgia
As Putin runs out of options in Ukraine, two vulnerable Caucasus states sit in Russia's sights. We weigh the case for an invasion of Armenia versus Georgia.
The Gulf State Militaries Are a Joke — For Now
How the 2026 Iran war shattered the Gulf states' fantasy of safety, and the long road to rebuilding their parade-ground militaries into real fighting forces.
North Korea's Dead Hand: How Pyongyang Is Trying to Trump-Proof Its Regime
North Korea amended its constitution to launch its nuclear forces automatically if Kim Jong Un is killed. What a "dead hand" clause means for war on the peninsula.
NATO's Turkey Problem: Ankara's Drift Toward Strategic Independence
Turkey's first ICBM, its booming arms industry, and its cold war with Israel are widening NATO's most awkward fault line under Erdogan.
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Why Iran Now Wants the Bomb: Deterrence in the Shadow of the Mushroom Cloud
How a bruising war shattered Iran's threshold strategy and pushed Tehran toward the one deterrent that has reliably worked: a nuclear weapon.
Ukraine, Guardian of the Gulf: How Kyiv Became the Middle East's Drone-Defense Lifeline
How Ukraine, the world's leader in attritional drone warfare, exported its air-defense expertise to the Gulf states during the Iran War, and what Kyiv gets in return.
Moscow Loses Its Most Valuable Ally: What Orban's Defeat Means for Ukraine
How Viktor Orban's landslide election defeat in Hungary strips the Kremlin of its most useful European ally and reshapes the politics of the Ukraine war.
Who Could Lead Europe to War? The Continent's Missing Defense Leader
Europe is rearming but cannot agree on a leader. A nation-by-nation audit of who could command continental defense, and why no candidate clears the bar.
Hungary's 2026 Election: Why a Contested Vote Could Fracture NATO
Hungary's high-stakes 2026 election pits Orban against Peter Magyar's Tisza Party, and a disputed result risks dragging Trump, Russia, and NATO into crisis.
How Yemen's Houthi Rebels Could Decide the Iran War
Why Yemen's Houthis may be Iran's most dangerous ally in the Iran war, and why their patience on the sidelines could yet prove catastrophic for global trade.