Eastern Europe
Ukraine, Russia, NATO posture, deterrence, and the wider security architecture of Eastern Europe.
243 Dispatches
NATO's Turkey Problem: Ankara's Drift Toward Strategic Independence
Turkey's first ICBM, its booming arms industry, and its cold war with Israel are widening NATO's most awkward fault line under Erdogan.
Naval Drones: How Ukraine's Sea Robots Could Rewrite Naval Warfare
Ukraine's cheap kamikaze sea drones struck Russia's Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol. Analysts are split on whether the attack signals a true naval revolution.
North Korea's Dead Hand: How Pyongyang Is Trying to Trump-Proof Its Regime
North Korea amended its constitution to launch its nuclear forces automatically if Kim Jong Un is killed. What a "dead hand" clause means for war on the peninsula.
Moscow Loses Its Most Valuable Ally: What Orban's Defeat Means for Ukraine
How Viktor Orban's landslide election defeat in Hungary strips the Kremlin of its most useful European ally and reshapes the politics of the Ukraine war.
Poland Wants to Go Nuclear: How a Single Sentence Signaled a New Age of Proliferation
Donald Tusk's nuclear remark to the Sejm, plus rising tension across Taiwan, Syria, and Pakistan's Balochistan, mark a more dangerous global moment.
Putin's Desperation Moves: Symbolic Strikes on Kyiv and the Latvia Gambit
With Ukraine ascendant in drone warfare, a cornered Putin weighs two high-risk gambits—decapitation strikes on Kyiv and a probing attack on NATO's Latvia.
Who Russia Invades Next: The Case Against Armenia and Georgia
As Putin runs out of options in Ukraine, two vulnerable Caucasus states sit in Russia's sights. We weigh the case for an invasion of Armenia versus Georgia.
Russia Is Failing in Africa: How the Sahel Project Unravelled
Russia's Africa Corps was sold to the Sahel's juntas as the cure for jihadist violence. After Kidal fell and Mali burned, the project is unravelling.
Russia's Other Private Armies: The PMC Legion Beyond Wagner
Beyond Wagner, Russia runs a sprawling network of private military companies—Redut, Patriot, Rusich, the Imperial Movement, and Gazprom's own battalions.
Why Ukraine Cannot Surrender the Donbas: The Fortress Belt and the Ceasefire Trap
Russia's ceasefire demands hinge on Ukraine surrendering the Donbas and its fortress belt—a concession Kyiv views as a path to a far worse war.
Russian Casualties Are Becoming Unsustainable: The Numbers Behind the War's Vibe Shift
Russia has lost more men in a single month in Ukraine than in the entire Soviet-Afghan War. We examine the casualty data, drones, and what it means.
Falling Russians, India's Balancing Act, and the Sahel's Shifting Alliances
Russia's wave of fatal high-rise falls, India's pivot between China and Washington, Mali courting the US, and Ghana's Bawku crisis under the JNIM shadow.